Excellent analysis and the fullest picture yet of the depth of the Democratic Party's failings.
Most often and predictably cited in this category are organized labor, blue collar workers and Hispanic voters, where Trump made huge gains that could well represent the start of a permanent political realignment for the GOP.
Less mentioned but arguably deserving of more than a mere footnote are those political players whose prominence in deciding election outcomes has rapidly dwindled if not disappeared, starting with the Legacy media, followed closely by Hollywood and celebrities in other entertainment fields. They may decide going forward that their credibility and pocketbooks will be better served by calling balls and strikes rather than carrying water.
Bottom line, though, is that the Democratic Party has only itself and its leftward drift to blame for its political disconnect with almost every category of American.
The most striking data concerns the Hispanic vote. The left-wing assumption has long been that Hispanics favor lax immigration enforcement because a large majority of unauthorized migrants are Hispanic. Not true: Hispanics who reside here legally know the problems that mass immigration has created. Blue-collar Hispanic men especially know how their economic conditions have worsened because of illegal immigration.
The next time somebody says that favoring enforcement of immigration laws means that you are racist, confront them with this voting data about Hispanics in 2024.
I think the real unaddressed question is why did the democrat party “drift*” so far to the “left*” and became what it now is. Why did it abandon its mainstream American value system, that of JFK, Sam Nunn, Patrick Moynihan and so many other great Americans democrats, for this crazy crapload of ideologies (trans-mutilations, open borders, climate catastrophe, media lies, school indoctrination, DEI race-baiting, endless war, etc.)?
And who was behind this, who funded all of this?
The biggest puzzle to me, however, is how did the democrat party garner so many votes in the 2024 elections?
Abortion obviously gets you votes, but who in their right mind would support the rest of your crazy policies?
* drift is not the right word, & left is non-descriptive
This is detailed, comprehensive and fascinating. Thank you.
The next logical question Dems must ask themselves, and maybe the only one that really matters, is why? Why did, literally, every category of voters but AWFULs and geriatric women move Right, some drastically so, when the opposition was the most divisive candidate in US history?
Many of us believe inflation, immigration and child social engineering brought Dems defeat. Whatever the causes, until Dems identify and rectify those policies, there would seem to be little cause to believe the situation will change much, without a Trump implosion.
The reason he was viewed as the most divisive candidate is because that is the fear narrative pushed by the Dems. A narrative they have honed to a fine point. A narrative soundly defeated last Nov. That's the lesson. A lesson I see many liberals still don't grasp. Trump didn't win, Clinton lost. Biden didn't win, Trump lost. Trump didn't win, the left lost.
I guess I continue to see this as backward-looking, and not taking into consideration that these trends have ACCELERATED since the election. Since Nov. 1.05m more Rs have registered than Ds; the voter roll purge in Kollyfornia (only half way done) has already slashed 2.1 million voters off the rolls and that likely translates to over 1.4m Democrats; and Kollyfornia saw another 23,000 D deficit after the June registration numbers, on top of the 250,000 since Nov. These are profound numbers. While I enjoy seeing the postmortem shifts, it's sorta like looking at the national debt in 1989 and going, "Gee, that's bad." Seth Keshel had a great column this week about how the Democrats are down to just 12 counties with big metros, and that a flip of any one of those is doomsday. So these are real problems, and the analysis is wonderful, but about eight months behind the curve.
As I watch the latest lying Dem, Wasserman Schultz, tell us to not believe our eyes about Alligator Alcatraz, I see nothing the Dems have done or are doing to change or shift to those they need to vote for them.
Indeed, every morning I get shorts from Substack writers when I first go there, and one day it will be the haters and crazies, Robert Reich being the most notable, and the next the more stable and balanced.
I should stop reading this section. In my local comments sections of the newspaper etc. I block all but one or two from the left because they all, in one way or another, post the same thing. In fact, I could write their posts for them. This is too say that not only, "we are beating them badly and we are united, Jeffries and Schumer" are a clown show. With a clown show every time any one of the elected get on media.
But the last thing I do is to encourage those putting forth the already defeated narrative to press on. It's getting to the point I don't think the Repubs can screw up bad enough to get the Dems elected.
I can't wait for joe to up his prescence on public media.
The leading Dem politicians are tacitly egging on the violence, encouraging attacks on LEOs. I get why that appeals to their base, but it's repulsive to everyone else.
Is it likely that Hispanics voted so thinking or hoping that a vote for Republicans would soften its stance on immigration. Otherwise, seems counterproductive?
Or maybe they're Americans first? Why would they want criminals and lawlessness in their neighborhoods? Why would they want housing prices to skyrocket and overcrowded schools and medical facilities?
I have Hispanic neighbors, in a state with a large Hispanic population. My experience is they do not want Reps to soften their stance. They voted Rep to end the mass migration.
Many have families that have been citizens longer than mine. Their businesses, often trades and Blue Collar, are being undercut by Biden new arrivals willing to accept 3rd world wages and working conditions. Their schools are negatively affected by new arrivals that speak a multitude of different languages and who are, often, far behind the rest of the class. US schools tend to place kids by age, if they are 3 years behind academically, it just means they will require the bulk of teacher time. Affordable housing, already in short supply, is now more expensive and more scarce.
Hispanics at the border endured 4 years of life in a quasi war zone. Texas saw Reps flip border districts that last voted Rep a century ago.
Dems assumed Hispanics would cheer the open border. It was worst political calculation since Willie Horton was granted a weekend furlough. Toss in Green polices that drove up the price of oil and gas. Until Dems, drastically adjust their migration and energy policies, it will surprising if Hispanics return en mass to the their Party.
This is spot on. I grew up in the Rio Grande Valley and tried to tell my progressive friends and family that they were dead wrong about the Hispanic vote. These are people who very much believe in the American dream, instill these values in their children and are socially conservative. They fill my Catholic church pews. They are our border patrol, ICE agents, police and firefighters. They have little use for weird leftist ideologies. Not speaking for all, but these values can’t be ignored.
Thanks for this pov. My remark is based on how all Hispanics seem to now be characterized by ICE and its proponents as the root of much that is "wrong" with America without distinction for naturalization status or other. If I may, my grandmother is/was an immigrant to this country. Some of the current proposed changes in rules for naturalization would have prevented my own mother from remaining here.
Or maybe they’re just culturally conservative when it comes to law enforcement and gender, and a Democratic president elected as a moderate but listening to his ultra-progressive staffers, as usual, assumed he can push left harder than the public is interested in?
Maybe these people wouldn't have voted for Harris if they had voted. But what I have been reading is that Trump actually didn't increase his support among these groups. His percentage went up only because fewer people voted this time around. The actual numerical count of people in each of those groups voting for him stayed the same or decreased, it was only his percentage that went up. Any truth to that?
Excellent analysis and the fullest picture yet of the depth of the Democratic Party's failings.
Most often and predictably cited in this category are organized labor, blue collar workers and Hispanic voters, where Trump made huge gains that could well represent the start of a permanent political realignment for the GOP.
Less mentioned but arguably deserving of more than a mere footnote are those political players whose prominence in deciding election outcomes has rapidly dwindled if not disappeared, starting with the Legacy media, followed closely by Hollywood and celebrities in other entertainment fields. They may decide going forward that their credibility and pocketbooks will be better served by calling balls and strikes rather than carrying water.
Bottom line, though, is that the Democratic Party has only itself and its leftward drift to blame for its political disconnect with almost every category of American.
The most striking data concerns the Hispanic vote. The left-wing assumption has long been that Hispanics favor lax immigration enforcement because a large majority of unauthorized migrants are Hispanic. Not true: Hispanics who reside here legally know the problems that mass immigration has created. Blue-collar Hispanic men especially know how their economic conditions have worsened because of illegal immigration.
The next time somebody says that favoring enforcement of immigration laws means that you are racist, confront them with this voting data about Hispanics in 2024.
I think the real unaddressed question is why did the democrat party “drift*” so far to the “left*” and became what it now is. Why did it abandon its mainstream American value system, that of JFK, Sam Nunn, Patrick Moynihan and so many other great Americans democrats, for this crazy crapload of ideologies (trans-mutilations, open borders, climate catastrophe, media lies, school indoctrination, DEI race-baiting, endless war, etc.)?
And who was behind this, who funded all of this?
The biggest puzzle to me, however, is how did the democrat party garner so many votes in the 2024 elections?
Abortion obviously gets you votes, but who in their right mind would support the rest of your crazy policies?
* drift is not the right word, & left is non-descriptive
It is The Groups.
This is detailed, comprehensive and fascinating. Thank you.
The next logical question Dems must ask themselves, and maybe the only one that really matters, is why? Why did, literally, every category of voters but AWFULs and geriatric women move Right, some drastically so, when the opposition was the most divisive candidate in US history?
Many of us believe inflation, immigration and child social engineering brought Dems defeat. Whatever the causes, until Dems identify and rectify those policies, there would seem to be little cause to believe the situation will change much, without a Trump implosion.
The reason he was viewed as the most divisive candidate is because that is the fear narrative pushed by the Dems. A narrative they have honed to a fine point. A narrative soundly defeated last Nov. That's the lesson. A lesson I see many liberals still don't grasp. Trump didn't win, Clinton lost. Biden didn't win, Trump lost. Trump didn't win, the left lost.
And war.
I guess I continue to see this as backward-looking, and not taking into consideration that these trends have ACCELERATED since the election. Since Nov. 1.05m more Rs have registered than Ds; the voter roll purge in Kollyfornia (only half way done) has already slashed 2.1 million voters off the rolls and that likely translates to over 1.4m Democrats; and Kollyfornia saw another 23,000 D deficit after the June registration numbers, on top of the 250,000 since Nov. These are profound numbers. While I enjoy seeing the postmortem shifts, it's sorta like looking at the national debt in 1989 and going, "Gee, that's bad." Seth Keshel had a great column this week about how the Democrats are down to just 12 counties with big metros, and that a flip of any one of those is doomsday. So these are real problems, and the analysis is wonderful, but about eight months behind the curve.
As I watch the latest lying Dem, Wasserman Schultz, tell us to not believe our eyes about Alligator Alcatraz, I see nothing the Dems have done or are doing to change or shift to those they need to vote for them.
Indeed, every morning I get shorts from Substack writers when I first go there, and one day it will be the haters and crazies, Robert Reich being the most notable, and the next the more stable and balanced.
I should stop reading this section. In my local comments sections of the newspaper etc. I block all but one or two from the left because they all, in one way or another, post the same thing. In fact, I could write their posts for them. This is too say that not only, "we are beating them badly and we are united, Jeffries and Schumer" are a clown show. With a clown show every time any one of the elected get on media.
But the last thing I do is to encourage those putting forth the already defeated narrative to press on. It's getting to the point I don't think the Repubs can screw up bad enough to get the Dems elected.
I can't wait for joe to up his prescence on public media.
Thanks for this great data. It’s part of what I pay for! Along with good writing and fair analyses.
The Democrats need a program other than OMB. And ditch the groups pushing climate, trans, no borders and war
The leading Dem politicians are tacitly egging on the violence, encouraging attacks on LEOs. I get why that appeals to their base, but it's repulsive to everyone else.
Is it likely that Hispanics voted so thinking or hoping that a vote for Republicans would soften its stance on immigration. Otherwise, seems counterproductive?
Or maybe they're Americans first? Why would they want criminals and lawlessness in their neighborhoods? Why would they want housing prices to skyrocket and overcrowded schools and medical facilities?
I have Hispanic neighbors, in a state with a large Hispanic population. My experience is they do not want Reps to soften their stance. They voted Rep to end the mass migration.
Many have families that have been citizens longer than mine. Their businesses, often trades and Blue Collar, are being undercut by Biden new arrivals willing to accept 3rd world wages and working conditions. Their schools are negatively affected by new arrivals that speak a multitude of different languages and who are, often, far behind the rest of the class. US schools tend to place kids by age, if they are 3 years behind academically, it just means they will require the bulk of teacher time. Affordable housing, already in short supply, is now more expensive and more scarce.
Hispanics at the border endured 4 years of life in a quasi war zone. Texas saw Reps flip border districts that last voted Rep a century ago.
Dems assumed Hispanics would cheer the open border. It was worst political calculation since Willie Horton was granted a weekend furlough. Toss in Green polices that drove up the price of oil and gas. Until Dems, drastically adjust their migration and energy policies, it will surprising if Hispanics return en mass to the their Party.
This is spot on. I grew up in the Rio Grande Valley and tried to tell my progressive friends and family that they were dead wrong about the Hispanic vote. These are people who very much believe in the American dream, instill these values in their children and are socially conservative. They fill my Catholic church pews. They are our border patrol, ICE agents, police and firefighters. They have little use for weird leftist ideologies. Not speaking for all, but these values can’t be ignored.
Thanks for this pov. My remark is based on how all Hispanics seem to now be characterized by ICE and its proponents as the root of much that is "wrong" with America without distinction for naturalization status or other. If I may, my grandmother is/was an immigrant to this country. Some of the current proposed changes in rules for naturalization would have prevented my own mother from remaining here.
I think they are angry that the open borders have resulted in aggressive ICE actions that have resulted in the detention of citizens.
Such as?
Or maybe they’re just culturally conservative when it comes to law enforcement and gender, and a Democratic president elected as a moderate but listening to his ultra-progressive staffers, as usual, assumed he can push left harder than the public is interested in?
Maybe these people wouldn't have voted for Harris if they had voted. But what I have been reading is that Trump actually didn't increase his support among these groups. His percentage went up only because fewer people voted this time around. The actual numerical count of people in each of those groups voting for him stayed the same or decreased, it was only his percentage that went up. Any truth to that?