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Larry Schweikart's avatar

John, I love ya man but President Trump is doing this in spades. Tariff revenues are through the roof, inflation has fallen by half, the illegal invaders are being cleaned out massively---even in Democrat run cities with no help---the GOP just eliminated taxes on tips, kicked illegals off Medicaid, and made permanent the middle class tax cuts. President Trump has magnificently avoided war in Ukraine, Iran, and negotiated a peace treaty with Rwanda/Congo and his DOGE cuts are now in reission packages moving into Congress. Women's sports are being returned to WOMEN, and the courts have ruled with Trump, ultimately on almost every single issue.

This is why I keep harping on the fact that the voters are speaking. Democrats aren't listening. The voter registrations as not just continuing, they are increasing in R favor. PA now is down to an active voter lead of only 83,000 from 1.1 MILLION just eight years ago. NC is an active GOP LEAD now of 83,000, from a Dem lead of 175,000 in just 2020. The absolutely massive voter roll purges in Kollyfornia are, mark my words, going to remove a NET of more than 1 million Democrats from the rolls there, and already 250,000 have fflipped to Rs. No, we have really responsible government for the first time since Reagan.

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cactusdust's avatar

So many falsehoods ("inflation has fallen by half"), so little time: y-o-y increase CPI Jan 2025=3.0%, May 2025=2.4% I know, facts and arithmetic have a well-known liberal bias.

The Big Budget Bomb cuts taxes for the rich, safety net for the poor and blows up the deficit-SO RESPONSIBLE!

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Minsky's avatar
18hEdited

Larry, my good man, I’d suggest you get outside the bubble and check the latest employment report. The inevitable is happening and the “everything’s amazing” line of propaganda is going to need adjustment soon—there’s no ‘blame the Dems’ option on this one, the tariff blitzkrieg nonsense wasn’t their idea, nor was a giant tax giveaway to the wealthiest stratum of society right as the economy is beginning to shed jobs.

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Richard's avatar

It is what it is because the Establishment has failed, repeatedly. Exported prosperity, expanding inequality, endless wars, eroding freedom like Establishment all begin with "e". To take recent internal Democratic politics, Mamdani mav have the wrong policies but at least he has some other than give me the power because I had it before.

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Minsky's avatar

“Is responsible government boring?”

I think the big missing element here is a leader who can make common-sense responsible government exciting. The attention economy we are in makes this extraordinarily difficult. To reach people you need to attract more attention than your competitors—this is easy to do by pushing outlandish and disruptive populist policies, but very difficult when you’re selling plain old classical (small l) liberalism and responsible governance.

I think digital fluency and charisma is key. You need someone who has both, but is selling a centrist program—an AOC or Mamdani of the middle, so to speak.

Either way, ‘populism’s day in the Sun won’t last forever. Whether it’s Chavez in Venezuela or the fascists of the interwar era, populism never ends well. If we’re lucky we’ll transition away from it before it blows up in our face. If not, the country may have to learn the hard way. We’re already starting to see the fabric tear—the dollar is in decline, traffic at the ports is way way down and we’ve destroyed the international alliances that have been acting as a bulwark against the further advancement of Chinese-led Eurasian dominance. The rude awakening may be coming sooner rather than later.

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Betsy Chapman's avatar

I felt the same way when ObamaCare passed by the same margin. At least with the BBB we didn’t have to pass to find out what was in it. It is a bitch when the shoe is on the other foot. As the democrats party goes the way of the Whig party, what you propose may well off the sane home many democrats now seek.

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cactusdust's avatar

Dems ARE the party of responsible government. Romney/ObamaCare was debated for over a year (after having been implemented in Mass)

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MG's avatar

McCain ran on repealing ObamaCare, but he lied.

ObamaCare passed with backroom deal-making (Cornhusker Kickback, Sen Ben Nelson).

MA pop is 7M, NYC pop is 8M, US population is 340M. Are you saying what's successful in a big city would be successful in the US as a whole? "In 2023, ObamaCare federal subsidies were estimated to be $1.8 trillion. Over the 2024-2033 period, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects these subsidies to total $25.0 trillion." Yeah, great program, very responsible.

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cactusdust's avatar

McCain was against it (in 2009) before he was for it (in 2017 after it had shown itself to be both effective and popular). Health care costs money but results in better health outcomes and fewer deaths among covered populations. Suggest you look at https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/21/six-charts-show-the-impact-of-obamacare. Also Obamacare SAVED money by "bending the cost curve" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/09/upshot/obamacare-medicare-spending-slowdown.html

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ban nock's avatar

That's an inspiring essay, probably because I agree with all of it ;-)

This mega bill isn't much to my liking, not for specifics but just as it's more of the same. Whoever's in power heaps the largess on their team, no one pays for anything.

When I do the math we have to tax many who currently claim to be hardly getting by, and we need to spend money such that no one lives on the street or goes bankrupt from doctor's bills.

Responsible Government. Maybe one of these parties could run on that handle.

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MG's avatar

"We have to tax many who currently claim to be hardly getting by..." ??

AI: "High-income earners: The U.S. federal income tax system is progressive, meaning higher-income individuals pay a larger share of taxes. In 2022, the top 1% of earners paid 40.4% of all federal income taxes."

Bernie wants to raise top rates for the rich to 90%. Mamdani wants to get rid of billionaires (how??) and raise taxes on white people.

The government wastes more money than it spends. Our problem is NOT that no one pays enough taxes.

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ban nock's avatar

I'm with Bernie on this one. Top tax rate in 66 was 91% on anything over 4 million in today's dollars. Mostly small business owners. They used to simply pour the money back into the business and the employees instead of paying taxes on it, they got very loyal employees and a business with all of it's stuff kept up. 24 different brackets. My effective income tax rate was 6.8%, and our country is borrowing money to give me an even bigger tax break. Borrowing money to give tax breaks is absolutely crazy.

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MG's avatar

Some of Bernie's cuckoo ideas:

Free medical care

Free college

Free medical school to anyone who wants to go, regardless of qualifications

He proposes immediate action: $30 minimum wage, 32 hour work week, and if an employer automates a job, he still had to pay that employee.

There was also freebies regarding transportation and housing.

No billionaires allowed - if you had a billion, the government would confiscate $100M you could only have 900M. If you had 25 billion, the government would confiscate 24 billion plus 1 million, leaving you with $900M. This $900M would be taxed at 90%.

Borrowing money to give tax breaks IS absolutely crazy. So is borrowing for green subsidies, borrowing money to provide housing and medical care to the undocumented and healthy but non-working citizens, and a thousand other things.

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ban nock's avatar

Medical care and college I'm good with, but courses have to be hard enough and stop giving passes for people showing up. Half the people currently going shouldn't. Most countries that spend half as much as us on medical care have better outcomes. Qualifications for Med school are what? People right now cry because they can't pass organic chemistry. No passing grades for people who can't cut the mustard would be enough.

$30 is about right.

Many professional managerials work 32, why not everyone, or OT. Don't agree on automation.

I don't see why we can't have very cheap public housing, no one should live on the street.

At 50 million you can set up a trust so none of your heirs or their heirs or their heirs would ever have to work. A billion is a thousand millions. Most billionaires only use money to keep score, they can't spend it fast enough. Just take it at inheritance.

All those things should only be paid for from a surplus if at all. Paying interest is nuts for a rich country like ours.

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Richard's avatar

Problem with homeless is mostly drugs and mental illness rather than lack of houses. There are some that are temporarily homeless but if they are reasonable people, they get stabilized. I don't really know what to do about the druggies and mentally ill but houses will just get trashed.

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ban nock's avatar

You're right of course. I had a girlfriend in high school who lived in the projects. Some like her mom, a single mom, others like her divorced dad an alcoholic in a different development. At that time states had large mental institutions also, and homelessness in the US was at about zero. I was in high school a while ago.

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Carlton S.'s avatar

A distinction in "wealth" that is very basic and should be recognized by everyone is between "wealth" in the form of (a) capital investments, which produce goods and services for everyone, create jobs for many, and pay taxes on wages, property, and profits, and (b) personal forms of conspicuous consumption that may be taxed and employ some people, but mostly just stroke the egos of plutocrats by diverting real resources from everyone else.

Practically all of the "billionaires" have some combination of these forms of wealth. I particularly admire Warren Buffett as one who has concentrated his wealth in capital investments, lived relatively modestly himself, and arranged for his wealth to go largely to philanthropic (non-governmental public betterment programs) rather than to his heirs. That is in contrast to the self-aggrandizing expenditures by Jeff Bezos, most recently in his "star-studded" wedding ceremony in Italy.

In objective economic analysis, the problem with higher taxes on super-wealthy people is that many will cut back more on their capital investments that are particularly beneficial to society, than on their obscene personal consumption.

For my part, I publicize my contempt for conspicuous consumption of the Bezos variety while acknowledging the economic benefits of capital assets being managed by people who have proven an ability to do so efficiently and presumably legally, as measured by their profitability. Think Warren Buffett.

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MG's avatar

Warner Buffett is leaving a huge chunk of his money to "non-profits" that his children live off of.

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ban nock's avatar

I've been thinking about capital investment as it is most of my income, and wealth. I'm not sure it does that much good, because we have so much. It's like gambling. Companies are worth many times any profits they are ever likely to make.

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MG's avatar

If you feel that it's ok to steal someone's property so the government can piss it away, I don't even know what to say to you.

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ban nock's avatar

Taxes aren't stealing, they are how all countries operate. If you don't understand what a tax is you should probably do a little thinking before replying.

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MG's avatar

AI:

"Important Considerations:

Marginal vs. Effective Rate: It's important to distinguish between the top marginal tax rate and the effective tax rate. The top marginal rate only applied to income exceeding a specific threshold. Due to deductions and loopholes, few people actually paid this top marginal rate, and the effective tax rate (the actual percentage of income paid in taxes) for the highest earners was significantly lower.

Context: These high tax rates occurred during and immediately following World War II.

In summary, the top marginal income tax rate in the US was approximately 90% from the mid-1940s through the early 1960s."

So few people paid this rate -- that ended 65 years ago!

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ban nock's avatar

The sixties were ok. WWII was a distant memory. No homeless. Workers made good incomes. End of the 60s got a little wild.

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Cindy's avatar

I agree with a lot of this article, I thought that it would be a good idea to raise taxes on the top 3 brackets … ie to go back to pre TCJA levels. It seemed to me like it would be a compromise and in good faith. However, would it just be putting more dollars into a black hole?

When the Governmental Accounting Office estimates that we lose between 233 billion and 521 billion annually to fraud, that is very concerning. So will extra dollars be used properly? What incentive is there for govt to be more efficient .. it is so big and bureaucratic. I am a CPA and I deal with the IRS, so I get a taste of this. I don’t think this is the fault of the IRS employees, they are just trying to survive with this terrible outdated technology and convoluted tax code. I started doing this again about 3 years ago on a very part time basis. I’ve had a couple of clients who did not pay taxes for years and were never pursued??? Just my example of government inefficiency in my small population.

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cactusdust's avatar

Dems ARE the party of responsible government. Biden's IRA included big increase in IRS for improved service, updated tech and enhanced enforcement that would have paid for itself many times over if the MAGAts hadn't cut it in the Big Budget Bomb.

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MG's avatar

So you think the problem with our budget is that people just aren't paying enough taxes? And that they people who DON'T pay taxes should get big refunds?

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cactusdust's avatar

I think billionaires, people making millions of $, and people who are illegally evading taxes should be paying more taxes. I also think the inheritance tax should prevent the intergenerational transfer of exorbitant wealth. What has Paris Hilton ever done to deserve being so rich?

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Ed Smeloff's avatar

The parties are waiting for the bond vigilantes to show up. The Republicans are betting 10-year treasuries will stay below 5% at least for the next couple of years.

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William Conner's avatar

John, how can you say with such confidence that this bill will explode the deficit/debt? You reference the CBO, how accurate was the CBO regarding the 2017 tax cuts? How accurate is the CBO most of the time? For every article from a left leaning source that cite's the CBO as gospel, there is one from a right leaning source that cite's how inaccurate the CBO has been (I've provided one). Whom are we to believe (when we don't have the inclination to research it ourselves, which of course is what we should do)? This is a serious question Mr. Halpin, thank you.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/06/02/routinely_inaccurate_cbo_forecasts_shouldnt_factor_with_tax_writing_1113691.html

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John Halpin's avatar

Fair question. Projections are just that, based on different models. But on this one it seems most Republican budget hawks agree with the CBO forecasts of much higher deficits from the Senate version. Bill will pass anyway. Let's hope it doesn't blow up deficits! But Congress' track record, D or R, on deficits is not good. They all spend a lot more than they take in. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/senate-gop-tax-bill-would-raise-budget-deficits-4-trillion-over-10-years-crfb

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Betsy Chapman's avatar

We may agree on the goals, but the rub seems to be the policies to meet the greatest prosperity; material, social, spiritual, etc. Some view the social nature of government as a given; subject to the pressures of: rent seekers increasing their own benefit, as well as log rolling, ‘I’ll vote for your bill if you vote for mine.”

Others believe government can become a tool for optimizing prosperity. They believe the social animal that is government can become what they wish it to be. (see Milton Freeman essay “Barking Cats”)

These two distinct visions are the basis of our two parties.

As an aside, for decades the saying was there is more difference within the Republican and Democrat party than between the two parties. So it doesn’t matter who you vote for. Now the parties have self-sorted so there is a huge difference between each party. Your vote changes everything. But we are still not happy?

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cactusdust's avatar

Dems ARE the party of responsible government.

Energy - "a mix of regulatory reforms to encourage more development of affordable “all of the above” energy sources, ...—along with national investments in strategic industries and the foundations of high-skilled employment"

Chips and Science Act and IRA tried to do exactly these things. US fossil fuel output reached all time highs under Biden, while wind/solar/battery energy was 90% of new electrical production and and domestic semiconductor manufacturing boomed. My solar panels were made in the USA.

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MG's avatar

You know what else boomed? Subsides and a whole lot of $$ unaccounted for that ended up with Dem donors.

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cactusdust's avatar

Please substantiate "$$ unaccounted for that ended up with Dem donors" Subsidies to US companies vital to national security (semiconductor, EV, rare earth mining and batteries etc) are needed to offset Chinese govt subsidies to theirs.

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MG's avatar

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/06/14/the-27b-in-climate-cash-that-trump-cant-cancel-00163190

Power Forward Communities received a $2 billion grant in August 2024 from the EPA’s National Clean Investment Fund—allocated from the Inflation Reduction Act—to help “affordably decarbonize American homes,” according to a press release from the nonprofit. It was formed in October 2023 by five separate nonprofit groups—including Rewiring America, where Stacey Abrams serves as “senior advisor.” Records from usaspending.gov, the federal government’s official online resource for tracking funding data, confirm that Power Forward Communities received the $2 billion EPA grant.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/in-final-days-biden-awarded-50-million-to-self-dealing-charity-leader/ar-AA1z2zJD

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cactusdust's avatar

First link to politico E and E is paywalled so I can't read the whole article but the intro and excerpt you cited show no wrongdoing only that "Congressional Democrats Trump-proofed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund by establishing in law that EPA must obligate — or commit to spending — those billions of dollars by Sept. 30)

Second link to Washington Examiner via MSN depicts possible small time grifters, of which there are many out there. Article was 4 months old, and DOE was investigating possible self-dealing involving up to $10 million, but nothing was proven. Any update on the investigation?

If you're so worried about corruption, what do you have to day about the Trump Crime Family crypto racket? It's estimated to have raked off over a $57 million already.https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-disclosure-shows-57-million-in-earnings-from-early-crypto-push-2c7dd19a?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAh8RPKvOVAk_PR-l1hQZqahsZEKaLbf6_jT1cyAJwWzor4HYpY-GFneMMDS7lU%3D&gaa_ts=68659e18&gaa_sig=f2FpV6eQzomeoPnu7Z9YoqIGqSwQ1MYmECKYzwxFdLLOmEAXsz8ArmTq-bptRH--DBFobLYpAhGqwzoePNFydA%3D%3D

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Betsy Chapman's avatar

Your point is debatable. It is responsible for our elected representatives to be able to read the bill before they have to vote.

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Bob Raphael's avatar

To me, it is real simple. Our country is divided so badly and divided numerically quite closely, especially on the national level and certainly in some states. There is a culture war. There is an economic war. There is a foreign policy war. There is an identity politics war there is some nonsense on the left, called intersectionality Which is really fucked up. My point is you ask for a responsible government! Each side along with their special interest supporters thinks that their way is the responsible way. The constitution is actually not much help because it is so damn old and can be interpreted almost anyway you choose ! The tyranny of the judicial system makes everything worse. The two houses of Congress have neglected their duty because they are so divided and so compromisef clearly the executive branch no matter which party controls it will set the agenda.

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