An Early Electoral Test of Trump’s Presidency

Previewing a crucial special election in New York’s 21st District.

In March 2018, Democrat Conor Lamb won a stunning upset over Republican Rick Saccone in a special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District—a district that Trump had carried by nearly 20 points in 2016. Lamb’s victory sent shockwaves through D.C. as both parties geared up for the midterms. Though Trump’s approval rating was already underwater, the special election hinted to joyous Democrats and nervous Republicans that 2018 could be a blue wave.

Seven years later, a similar test looms on the horizon for Trump and the GOP.

Just days after his November win, Trump tapped Rep. Elise Stefanik to be his Ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik’s impending confirmation will trigger a special election in New York’s 21st District. Based in the sprawling North Country and rural Adirondacks, NY-21 voted for Trump by a sizable 21 points. Stefanik was reelected by 24 points, carrying every single county in the district. Her Democratic opponent won only a smattering of precincts in the district’s few cities and touristy areas.

On paper, it’s a safely red district—and were the special election held in concurrence with a midterm or presidential election, that would be true. Democrats would have no shot in November of an even year. But, as we saw with Lamb, Doug Jones, Scott Brown, and countless others, special elections can surprise. So despite the bleak numbers on paper, Democrats are cautiously optimistic they have a fighting chance to flip Stefanik’s seat.

Both parties recognize the importance of NY-21. With such a slim House majority, the GOP is delaying Stefanik’s confirmation to maintain control of her seat for as long as possible (presumably until two GOP seats are filled in Florida in early April). Democrats, too, are playing politics. The New York legislature toyed with the idea of lengthening the special election timeframe to keep the seat empty for longer and hamstring Mike Johnson (an effort that has since been abandoned).

While we wait for the vacancy to become official, Democrats have already chosen their candidate: Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer from a small town near the Canadian border. Gendebien is exactly the sort of moderate, even conservative-ish, candidate that proves sneakily competitive in a red district.

Here’s how he described his platform to local radio:

It is time we put the North Country first and we focus on things like affordability. We focus on things like securing the border, deporting criminals and creating a legal, secure workforce for our farmers and our small businesses and it's time that we worked on reducing senseless regulations.

Sounds like someone who understands why Democrats lost in 2024!

Gendebien has also proved a solid fundraiser, pulling in close to $2 million so far—all before Republicans select a candidate of their own. The eventual GOP nominee, of course, still has a far simpler path to victory in a very red district: tie Gendebien to the Democratic establishment and turn out just enough Trump voters.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that early rumblings of discontent with the Trump administration crescendo into spring. Many are pointing to raucous town halls as a sign that Democratic voters are reenergizing. From Waco to Waukesha, angry constituents have faced off with their Republican representatives over DOGE, Medicaid cuts, and veteran benefits. GOP leaders have chalked up the showdowns to astroturfing and paid protestors—a dismissal also employed by Democrats in 2009 and Republicans in 2017 before tough midterm years.

Are these town halls with a few hundred attendees fully representative of the national mood? Probably not. Showing up to yell at your congressman is an evening activity that appeals only to a select few. Survey data suggests most Democrats are still licking their wounds after Trump’s win. A recent CBS News-YouGov poll found more than 40 percent of Democrats said they were “demoralized” and “exhausted” compared to the 10 percent who said they were “motivated.”

Any predictions of a 2026 blue wave based on anecdotal evidence from town halls would be premature. Economic indicators and approval ratings remain better metrics. But reports of angry constituents are a good sign for Democrats in upcoming special elections—including NY-21—where the electorate will be much smaller and chock full of highly engaged partisans.

For decades, conventional wisdom held that Democrats benefitted from high turnout, while Republicans cleaned up in low-turnout specials and midterms. No longer. The strongest supporters of today’s Democratic Party are voters who would show up for a municipal dogcatcher election in the middle of a blizzard. The GOP, meanwhile, has built an edge with low-engagement voters who show up only every four years. Trump, for example, carried those who didn’t vote in 2022 by 6 points, but he and Harris tied with those who did vote in the midterms.

This presents an important caveat to any future analysis of the results: we should expect Democrats to outperform the presidential baseline. The voters that head to the polls in NY-21 will likely skew more Democratic than usual, particularly towards the college-educated.

If, for example, Gendebien loses by 17 points, Democrats might think to cheer—he beat Harris’s margin by 4 points! But thanks to coalitional differences, a Republican win in the mid teens is probably the modal outcome, even though it trails Trump’s 2024 number. Inferences about the GOP’s national standing would be limited. If Gendebien pushes the margin into single digits, however, Republicans should start to worry. At that point, a chunk of the overperformance is comfortably attributed to backlash against Trump and the GOP.

Though cynics might suggest otherwise, politicians do respond to electoral surprises. Trump, who has no campaigns left to run, might not care, but congressional Republicans would rightfully panic if they came close to losing—or outright lost—a Trump +21 district. Not only would it signal growing dissatisfaction with the administration, a Democratic win would further complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s narrow majority.

The odds of an upset remain quite low, but all eyes will soon turn to the North Country for the first big electoral test of Trump’s 2nd term.