I've watched US politics since highschool in the late 50's. In both Parties, the more intelligent and functional ideas are always moderate. In both Parties, extreme thinking is exactly what it is; extreme and most often not applicable to our American democracy.
Our government was designed to adapt slowly. You don't spin a ship this size around on a whim. All levels of sophisticated thinking know this. It's the under educated and inexperienced in both Parties that push extreme ideas, liberal or conservative.
The article does not say much about what the reasons might be for the enormous increase in the number of individuals identified as progressive in the Democratic party. In my view it is mainly because of conditions in the country: stagnant or decling affordability, increasing homelessness, housing crises, endless wars astounding increases in income inequality. I see indications that growing sectors the labor movement, for example, are moving in that direction, . Unions played a significant role in the largely successful resistance movement in Minneapolis for example. The leadership on the left contains educated individuals but the left in the party is not dominated by a highly educated liberal elite. The left leadership is espousing coherent, workable programs and policies which can improve conditions for the vast majority of Americans. Yes we can.
The issue with the moderate faction of the Democratic Party is that they have a corruption problem they refuse to acknowledge or confront. They will continue losing ground until they do.
Not all (or even most) moderates are corrupt, but every high profile corruption case recently (Menendez, Cuellar, Adam’s, etc) has come from the moderate wing of the party.
James Talarico just won a primary against an objectively more liberal opponent by, in part, centering a strong anti-corruption agenda. Third Way and the like should learn from this.
One reason the Woke fringe of the Democratic Party exerts influence above its numbers is its implacable hatred of Donald Trump. Moderate Democrats are willing to compromise on their normie policies to get nominees who have proven they will do ANYTHING to demonstrate true-blue opposition to everything Trump does.
Umm, no. The Democratic Party in its current state has alienated a lot of American Jews, so Jews are not a valued partner in the Democratic coalition. The Party, however, assumes that the past loyalty of Jews to the Party means that Jews will always be loyal to the party, so they aren't concerned with fighting antisemitism and antizionism (roughly the same thing these days) within the Party's ranks and platform.
I merely meant, in the larger scheme of things, whether taxpayers were scammed out of $50 million dollars or $300 million in Colorado is almost academic, aside from $250 millions bucks. AI will eventually reveal routine fraud of similar magnitudes, on a regular basis. That should end government growth at such massive clips, payments can no longer be responsibly managed.
You seem to imply much of the CO audit discrepancies stemmed only from technical paperwork infractions, not purposeful fraud. My guess is that is mostly wishful thinking, but it is simply a guess, just like yours, completely unprovable, at this moment.
In the future, AI should quickly discover government payment problems like those in Colorado, long before they include such enormous numbers. AI should be able to determine whether they stem from good faith mistakes or criminal fraud.
Prior to that, Treasury Agents will be actively looking for the fraud, states seem to have very little interest in finding. We are all likely to be very surprised, by their findings.
Whether or not the average Democratic voter is moderate is beside the point. Alicia Nieves in two articles at "Compact" in the last month shows that "The Groups" of "a relatively small but highly organized ecosystem of national advocacy groups, politicized unions, and ideological nonprofits" run the show. And if you don't vote with them they will have you primaried and kicked out of office.
Great piece! I have been a Democrat all of my life, but I have been feeling increasingly alienated from my party for many years. I no longer identify as a Democrat and do not feel comfortable with either party.
Here in Kansas, I am considered a liberal. I'm probably more moderate. I think children should not go hungry, people should not have to work three jobs to survive, one should not have to choose between getting medical care or having a roof over one's head. The solution to these problems, however cannot be addressed without a radical change, and massive change is called a progressive policy. I've been building a framework that tries to address exactly moderate concerns, but is it progressive? I wrote about it here if it's useful to the conversation: https://lakesidegrammy.substack.com/p/democrats-just-fixed-one-end-thats
I thiink that competition is vital to a health economy, so I lean more toward a mixed economic theory, that includes some restrictions relating to social protections like pollution controls. I think compromise is not a dirty word. Roe vs Wade was a satisfactory compromise for an issue that the government should probably not be involved in. The government should be fiscally responsible and transparent. In general I believe that the government should be in place only to help a free people thrive. Perhaps that aspect is a bit more libertarian. :)
I am an old I'm lefty with years of experience in local government because I demand regardless of our personal beliefs we rule from the center. Eventually we'll get there but those on the edges are always impatient. Consider the fight for marriage equality. We got there but it took time. We cannot let political extremes dominate whole parties. Listen to their voices but decide pragmatically. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good
I assert moderate Democrats don’t usually defend their positions or critique progressive positions on the merits. They generally argue for their positions as the best that can be passed in the current political environment.
It’s very hard to grow supporters that way especially when you have charismatic a progressives like Sanders, AOC, and Mamdani swaying more voters.
Moderate Democrats could persuade more progressives and moderate Republicans if they advocated for why their policy ideas would work rather than just focusing on what policies will win in swing districts. Winning elections is essential. But effectiveness governance is the point. I don’t see a lot of moderate Democrats in Washington focused on why their ideas will make government better and more effective. Governors yes. Mayors often. But the national fight between moderate groups and progressive groups says little about the effectiveness of policies.
As someone who lived in Seattle for almost 20 years, my reply is in the form of an Iron Law: "You can always tell a Seattle 'progressive,' but you can never tell a Seattle 'progessive' a single thing." This is true of all the "progressives." They are the most arrogant people I have ever met anywhere, and I have really been everywhere in this country.
“As a right-leaning organization, it arguably has an incentive to show that Democratic voters are uniformly left-wing, which would provide ammunition for the Republican Party in its pursuit of swing voters and independents.”
If you truly believe this, then you have some serious ideological blind spots. The Manhattan Institute is a proponent of free markets and good governance. They are far more interested in policy than whether a politician has an R or D after their name.
"...a large plurality (45 percent) wanted to see the party become more moderate against only 29 percent that wanted it to become more liberal."
"More liberal" would literally mean less interference in peoples lives and not enforcing edicts at gunpoint. When did "liberal" come to mean authoritarian?
Liberal in the US morphed in to generally meaning of the left where as libertarian is maybe more classical liberal. For liberal think Hubert Humphrey or Jimmy Carter, more current would be the Blue Dog Dems.
Liberal economics is recognised for its failures amongst many, open borders, open trade, unregulated monopolies, lack of consumer protections, no min wage.
The more authoritarian impulses are from Progressives. .
Power corrupts. "Liberal" came to mean authoritarian when liberals gained the police power of the state and used it to reverse the relationship between the citizen and the government. Naturally, when they coerce you into doing their bidding, they insist that it's for your own good. If you object, they take that to mean you don't know what's best for you so they are morally obliged to coerce you.
Understand the premise, but the results of this polling sound a bit like a serial adulterer, swearing he really loves his wife, and next time will be different.
The notion immigrant numbers should not increase, had meaning in 2019. Far less so now. The majority of Dems insist ICE must end and all non violent criminal Biden migrants must remain. The result would be up to 8-9 million unvetted migrants remaining in the US permanently, on top of normal immigration, with US lacking any interior enforcement. That would turn the US into a giant home base, for any world resident who could reach US soil.
Moreover, the US generally admits 1 million immigrants a year under normal, orderly immigration. Biden allowed a decade's worth of new unvetted people to enter the US. Dems are now demanding the vast majority stay, but they do not wish immigration levels to increase? That Math doesn't work.
Regarding the trans issue, all during Biden's term I kept waiting for one moderate Dem to offer the obvious middle ground. Allow trans athletes to compete in a 3rd category in individual sports and combine schools to form trans teams, that compete with other trans teams. Provide private, individual locker rooms/ bathrooms for kids choosing not to utilize the locker and bathrooms of their birth. Not a single Dem sought middle ground.
Dems voters may feel differently, but Dem politicians have all but abdicated crime as an issue, because they pay no political price for doing so. Trump has drastically lowered crime rates, but Dem tolerance for fatal violence, especially directed at women by repeat offenders, remains high. Dem leaders rarely if ever demand more enforcement or longer sentences. If a violent perp happens to be dwelling illegally, the Dem main concern is never the victim, but the attacker's rights to asylum, not be infringed.
If most Dem voters really are moderate, it matters little, if they do not demand their leadership, govern moderately.
I wonder what the numbers look like before Trump‘s first administration. Was the ideological drift the left less so or less fast? I do think the coming of Trump has radicalized some formerly moderate Democrats. Do you see any sign of that in the survey data?
Educated, wealthy white women with a "In This House We Believe" sign on their front lawn are the base and the energy of the Democratic Party. They have this Hive Mind that is enforced through social discipline and I don't see them welcoming any voice that contradicts their worldview.
I don't know what you do about that. They run the show and they are about as likeable as the 1980s Religious Right. Saira Rao is the new Jimmy Swaggart.
The AWFUL (angry white female urban liberal) really hurts the Democratic brand with men. They hate us!! Barely want to date. They are both intolerant and intolerable. For the party that’s been preaching tolerance for decades, it’s really a bad look.
Or as I like to put it 15+ years ago I mostly voted for Democrats because I viewed the Republicans as the party of Judge Smails and the Church Lady. Now I mostly vote for Republicans because I view the Democrats as the party of Judge Smails and the Church Lady
What’s astonishing is that they don’t care at all about the things that outraged them last month. They just move to the next outrage with no memory. Conservatives are still outraged about Covid and that was six years ago. Conservatives are still mad about the border and it’s been secured for a year now.
I don't think they're mad about the border, they're mad that the people who came in illegally are still here. I also don't think conservatives are mad about "covid", they're mad that there has been not even a hint of an apology from the politicians and pharma companies who dragged us into lockdown culture.
No more coming in, but "progressives" are fighting to keep every illegal immigrant here. They are for every illegal alien, every derelicts, every drug addict, every cartel, every daily criminal if they're not white, every mullah in Iran, and every tax increase. That crew shows every sign of hating this country's guts.
Conservatives are still mad about the border, because millions of unvetted new arrivals remain, that will drastically and permanently affect Blue State Reapportionment, House Governance and Presidential elections.
Toss in, most lack a valid asylum claim and will be tax payer dependent, in perpetuity. It is hard in US history to find a similar political dirty trick, that worked out better for the offending Party.
I've watched US politics since highschool in the late 50's. In both Parties, the more intelligent and functional ideas are always moderate. In both Parties, extreme thinking is exactly what it is; extreme and most often not applicable to our American democracy.
Our government was designed to adapt slowly. You don't spin a ship this size around on a whim. All levels of sophisticated thinking know this. It's the under educated and inexperienced in both Parties that push extreme ideas, liberal or conservative.
The article does not say much about what the reasons might be for the enormous increase in the number of individuals identified as progressive in the Democratic party. In my view it is mainly because of conditions in the country: stagnant or decling affordability, increasing homelessness, housing crises, endless wars astounding increases in income inequality. I see indications that growing sectors the labor movement, for example, are moving in that direction, . Unions played a significant role in the largely successful resistance movement in Minneapolis for example. The leadership on the left contains educated individuals but the left in the party is not dominated by a highly educated liberal elite. The left leadership is espousing coherent, workable programs and policies which can improve conditions for the vast majority of Americans. Yes we can.
The issue with the moderate faction of the Democratic Party is that they have a corruption problem they refuse to acknowledge or confront. They will continue losing ground until they do.
Not all (or even most) moderates are corrupt, but every high profile corruption case recently (Menendez, Cuellar, Adam’s, etc) has come from the moderate wing of the party.
James Talarico just won a primary against an objectively more liberal opponent by, in part, centering a strong anti-corruption agenda. Third Way and the like should learn from this.
One reason the Woke fringe of the Democratic Party exerts influence above its numbers is its implacable hatred of Donald Trump. Moderate Democrats are willing to compromise on their normie policies to get nominees who have proven they will do ANYTHING to demonstrate true-blue opposition to everything Trump does.
Is there a racial breakdown of these #? Isn't the Democratic Party now fundamentally a coalition of POCs/ Jews/ homosexuals?
Umm, no. The Democratic Party in its current state has alienated a lot of American Jews, so Jews are not a valued partner in the Democratic coalition. The Party, however, assumes that the past loyalty of Jews to the Party means that Jews will always be loyal to the party, so they aren't concerned with fighting antisemitism and antizionism (roughly the same thing these days) within the Party's ranks and platform.
I merely meant, in the larger scheme of things, whether taxpayers were scammed out of $50 million dollars or $300 million in Colorado is almost academic, aside from $250 millions bucks. AI will eventually reveal routine fraud of similar magnitudes, on a regular basis. That should end government growth at such massive clips, payments can no longer be responsibly managed.
You seem to imply much of the CO audit discrepancies stemmed only from technical paperwork infractions, not purposeful fraud. My guess is that is mostly wishful thinking, but it is simply a guess, just like yours, completely unprovable, at this moment.
In the future, AI should quickly discover government payment problems like those in Colorado, long before they include such enormous numbers. AI should be able to determine whether they stem from good faith mistakes or criminal fraud.
Prior to that, Treasury Agents will be actively looking for the fraud, states seem to have very little interest in finding. We are all likely to be very surprised, by their findings.
Whether or not the average Democratic voter is moderate is beside the point. Alicia Nieves in two articles at "Compact" in the last month shows that "The Groups" of "a relatively small but highly organized ecosystem of national advocacy groups, politicized unions, and ideological nonprofits" run the show. And if you don't vote with them they will have you primaried and kicked out of office.
Great piece! I have been a Democrat all of my life, but I have been feeling increasingly alienated from my party for many years. I no longer identify as a Democrat and do not feel comfortable with either party.
Absolute droves of people fit the same description you gave now.
Here in Kansas, I am considered a liberal. I'm probably more moderate. I think children should not go hungry, people should not have to work three jobs to survive, one should not have to choose between getting medical care or having a roof over one's head. The solution to these problems, however cannot be addressed without a radical change, and massive change is called a progressive policy. I've been building a framework that tries to address exactly moderate concerns, but is it progressive? I wrote about it here if it's useful to the conversation: https://lakesidegrammy.substack.com/p/democrats-just-fixed-one-end-thats
I read your post. If you consider yourself more "moderate," what moderate positions do you hold?
I thiink that competition is vital to a health economy, so I lean more toward a mixed economic theory, that includes some restrictions relating to social protections like pollution controls. I think compromise is not a dirty word. Roe vs Wade was a satisfactory compromise for an issue that the government should probably not be involved in. The government should be fiscally responsible and transparent. In general I believe that the government should be in place only to help a free people thrive. Perhaps that aspect is a bit more libertarian. :)
I am an old I'm lefty with years of experience in local government because I demand regardless of our personal beliefs we rule from the center. Eventually we'll get there but those on the edges are always impatient. Consider the fight for marriage equality. We got there but it took time. We cannot let political extremes dominate whole parties. Listen to their voices but decide pragmatically. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good
I assert moderate Democrats don’t usually defend their positions or critique progressive positions on the merits. They generally argue for their positions as the best that can be passed in the current political environment.
It’s very hard to grow supporters that way especially when you have charismatic a progressives like Sanders, AOC, and Mamdani swaying more voters.
Moderate Democrats could persuade more progressives and moderate Republicans if they advocated for why their policy ideas would work rather than just focusing on what policies will win in swing districts. Winning elections is essential. But effectiveness governance is the point. I don’t see a lot of moderate Democrats in Washington focused on why their ideas will make government better and more effective. Governors yes. Mayors often. But the national fight between moderate groups and progressive groups says little about the effectiveness of policies.
As someone who lived in Seattle for almost 20 years, my reply is in the form of an Iron Law: "You can always tell a Seattle 'progressive,' but you can never tell a Seattle 'progessive' a single thing." This is true of all the "progressives." They are the most arrogant people I have ever met anywhere, and I have really been everywhere in this country.
“As a right-leaning organization, it arguably has an incentive to show that Democratic voters are uniformly left-wing, which would provide ammunition for the Republican Party in its pursuit of swing voters and independents.”
If you truly believe this, then you have some serious ideological blind spots. The Manhattan Institute is a proponent of free markets and good governance. They are far more interested in policy than whether a politician has an R or D after their name.
"...a large plurality (45 percent) wanted to see the party become more moderate against only 29 percent that wanted it to become more liberal."
"More liberal" would literally mean less interference in peoples lives and not enforcing edicts at gunpoint. When did "liberal" come to mean authoritarian?
Liberal in the US morphed in to generally meaning of the left where as libertarian is maybe more classical liberal. For liberal think Hubert Humphrey or Jimmy Carter, more current would be the Blue Dog Dems.
Liberal economics is recognised for its failures amongst many, open borders, open trade, unregulated monopolies, lack of consumer protections, no min wage.
The more authoritarian impulses are from Progressives. .
When liberal became progressive.
Power corrupts. "Liberal" came to mean authoritarian when liberals gained the police power of the state and used it to reverse the relationship between the citizen and the government. Naturally, when they coerce you into doing their bidding, they insist that it's for your own good. If you object, they take that to mean you don't know what's best for you so they are morally obliged to coerce you.
By the classical definition the Manhattan Institute is far more liberal than today’s Democrats (or Trump for that matter)
Understand the premise, but the results of this polling sound a bit like a serial adulterer, swearing he really loves his wife, and next time will be different.
The notion immigrant numbers should not increase, had meaning in 2019. Far less so now. The majority of Dems insist ICE must end and all non violent criminal Biden migrants must remain. The result would be up to 8-9 million unvetted migrants remaining in the US permanently, on top of normal immigration, with US lacking any interior enforcement. That would turn the US into a giant home base, for any world resident who could reach US soil.
Moreover, the US generally admits 1 million immigrants a year under normal, orderly immigration. Biden allowed a decade's worth of new unvetted people to enter the US. Dems are now demanding the vast majority stay, but they do not wish immigration levels to increase? That Math doesn't work.
Regarding the trans issue, all during Biden's term I kept waiting for one moderate Dem to offer the obvious middle ground. Allow trans athletes to compete in a 3rd category in individual sports and combine schools to form trans teams, that compete with other trans teams. Provide private, individual locker rooms/ bathrooms for kids choosing not to utilize the locker and bathrooms of their birth. Not a single Dem sought middle ground.
Dems voters may feel differently, but Dem politicians have all but abdicated crime as an issue, because they pay no political price for doing so. Trump has drastically lowered crime rates, but Dem tolerance for fatal violence, especially directed at women by repeat offenders, remains high. Dem leaders rarely if ever demand more enforcement or longer sentences. If a violent perp happens to be dwelling illegally, the Dem main concern is never the victim, but the attacker's rights to asylum, not be infringed.
If most Dem voters really are moderate, it matters little, if they do not demand their leadership, govern moderately.
I wonder what the numbers look like before Trump‘s first administration. Was the ideological drift the left less so or less fast? I do think the coming of Trump has radicalized some formerly moderate Democrats. Do you see any sign of that in the survey data?
Educated, wealthy white women with a "In This House We Believe" sign on their front lawn are the base and the energy of the Democratic Party. They have this Hive Mind that is enforced through social discipline and I don't see them welcoming any voice that contradicts their worldview.
I don't know what you do about that. They run the show and they are about as likeable as the 1980s Religious Right. Saira Rao is the new Jimmy Swaggart.
The AWFUL (angry white female urban liberal) really hurts the Democratic brand with men. They hate us!! Barely want to date. They are both intolerant and intolerable. For the party that’s been preaching tolerance for decades, it’s really a bad look.
Or as I like to put it 15+ years ago I mostly voted for Democrats because I viewed the Republicans as the party of Judge Smails and the Church Lady. Now I mostly vote for Republicans because I view the Democrats as the party of Judge Smails and the Church Lady
The covid nagging never went away, it just changes flavors every week.
What’s astonishing is that they don’t care at all about the things that outraged them last month. They just move to the next outrage with no memory. Conservatives are still outraged about Covid and that was six years ago. Conservatives are still mad about the border and it’s been secured for a year now.
I don't think they're mad about the border, they're mad that the people who came in illegally are still here. I also don't think conservatives are mad about "covid", they're mad that there has been not even a hint of an apology from the politicians and pharma companies who dragged us into lockdown culture.
No more coming in, but "progressives" are fighting to keep every illegal immigrant here. They are for every illegal alien, every derelicts, every drug addict, every cartel, every daily criminal if they're not white, every mullah in Iran, and every tax increase. That crew shows every sign of hating this country's guts.
Conservatives are still mad about the border, because millions of unvetted new arrivals remain, that will drastically and permanently affect Blue State Reapportionment, House Governance and Presidential elections.
Toss in, most lack a valid asylum claim and will be tax payer dependent, in perpetuity. It is hard in US history to find a similar political dirty trick, that worked out better for the offending Party.