Yes, Democrats need a platform that isn't obsessing 24/7 about the Bad Orange Man which is what the talk about democracy is. I was appalled to find out that another No Kings day is planned. Be a big rally for The Groups. The demographics of Harris voters more closely resembles the Dole coalition than any other grouping at the national level. Republicans are over that and Democrats need to be too.
There is only confusion sown when democrats use the wrong word. To say “our democracy” is being destroyed by Trump, aren’t you really saying ”the progressive agenda” is being destroyed by Trump? Everyone knows Trump was duly elected by the majority of voters.
Clear communication will help “Democrats’ number one electoral problem: their appallingly dismal reputation in rural and small-town America.”
Clear communication about what specific policies? The Discrimination Financial Assistance Program (DFAP)? The $2B in financial relief that would only go to Black farmers?
1. The special election "wins" in AZ and VA were in heavily D districts. Iowa? Long ways to go.
2. I have been a close watcher of polls, and see no drop in Trump's ratings once you eliminate outliers. Even with the outliers, which are outrageously biased outfits, Trump is still ahead of where Bush Jr. and Obama were at this point in their second terms.
3. The Democratic Party fiercely HATES ordinary people, which is why they have lost "the heartland." If they think this is a matter of "messaging," good luck.
to: #3 above. Yes they do. Over and over even down ticket races like county clerk come to people with connections to the party apparatus. There isn't room for new people to come in. Hate is too strong a word-- "don't care about" is more like it.
Well, yeah, hate is too strong. I was talking about the Dems as a national organization, and in many states, the same. Run mostly by trust fund grads from expensive colleges, funded by the usual coastal billionaires, staffed at the lower levels by people who bought into the b.s.
That's the ticket. Plus they give so many jobs to family members. Chuck Schumer's wife is Iris Weinshall. She serves as the chief operating officer (COO) of the New York Public Library. In this role, she earns upwards of $450,000.Why couldn't a librarian have that job?
I am an apostate Democrat but not a Republican, however it might look from my comments on this Substack. I don't like any of it. If I could dig up Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, I'd do it tomorrow. None of this crap would have survived then, or at least not nearly as much of it.
The point being, Trump and the Republicans can now take historically Democrat positions and execute them better. He is more flexible. Dems now have to become more Republican. They could start by not letting the country shut down. They can actually engage in the new way of doing legislative business and show they can get things done and be truly bipartisan.
All your rhetoric on Trump’s failures consistently misses the mark of his short time in power. Biden and the Dems just proved in four years all they can do is make things worse.
Can the Dems become more Republican? Not any time in the near future. Maybe not even until the Republicans make the country out of reach for the Dems.
Oh, and some how the Dems must prove they are sincere and my just, as Bernie said about Kamala, changing positions to win an election. How do over come that quite that will haunt the Dems for quite a while. Especially as the Dems
Leadership in large cities and states show they have no intention of changing their ways. So many conundrums, so few answers. Aren’t most the special elections being won in Dem strong holds? It sure appears that way.
Thank you for FINALLY admitting to the massive voter registration changes I have been hammering you with for ONE YEAR. However, you might want to note that after Charlie Kirk's assassination, we have some 10-day numbers. They are devastating for Ds. The trend to the GOP accelerated. In NC, in the 10 days since Kirk, Rs net gained nearly four times what they had in previous weeks. In AZ's Maricopa CO., Rs net gained 2000. This is more than the average monthly gain.
However, I still don't think Ds are coming to grips with a major, massive structural collapse. You have the three big factors I've consistently pointed out: 1) voter roll purges. This obviously hurts Ds in any state with a D majority but doubly so in CA, where 2.1 m have been removed not counting LA and Orange Counties yet. When it's done, Rs will have net gained about 1.5m there; 2) deportations of illegal criminal alien invaders (this confirms Rs' suspicions all along that many---up to half?---were voting, and are part of the voter roll issue. So far, the deportations are 2m, but by 2026, they'll be close to 3-4 m. If just half of those have voted (almost certainly D) then you're losing another 1.5-2m voters nationally; 3) the voter reg changes you DO cite. CA, for ex, saw 48,000 net R gain in one month. I know, Ds have a 4 m advantage there. But figuring that at a 1m advantage many House races are at risk; even? the gov and senate seats are at risk. So when you pile on roll purges, illegal deportations, and standard (big) voter reg changes, CA has about 2 more years before it is competitive again, then the Ds really are finished. It is only CA, IL, and NY keeping the party competitive nationally.
Now, the OTHER structural issues are moving fast against Ds, with redistricting already costing the Ds a likely 6 seats---but with OH (R-2), IN (R+1), KS (R+1) and FL (R+2) minus CA (D+5) resulting in a net 7 gain in the House. Cook has "safe R" right now at 212 without these shifts, meaning that as of today the Rs are 219 "safe" for 2026. And that's even if Ds run the table on every single remaining race. (Unlikely)
Finally, I don't know about some of the other Special Elections, but anyone looking at Grijalva's race as an indicator are badly mistaken. I'm here in AZ. No one outside that district even knew there was a race; it's a HEAVY blue district; and Grijalva's daughter (name rec) was running. I never heard of the R candidate. But, if you want to make that a "test," be my guest.
And you have every right to be. The #s are still daunting, a D lead of 4.1m. I think if it gest down to around 1m, CA will be competitive. I was surprised, for ex., years ago I met with conservative groups there and thought I'd find a bunch of RINOs. Nope. They were more hard core than I was. So chip, chip, chippin' away.
I actually went and looked at the voting history of that Arizona district that the Dems were celebrating. The numbers for dead guy's daughter were in the middle of the pack. Meh.
The way Dems handled primaries in the last election soured many Democrats--keeping RFJjr off ballots, not even having primaries in Florida. (The Florida Democratic Party submitted only Biden as a candidate on November 30, 2023, effectively cancelling the March 19 primary) I think Delaware did as well.
The Democratic National Committee and Clear Choice Action used so much against RFKjr-lawsuits, FEC complaints, challenges to ballot access petitions. I was an early supporter of RFK for the Democratic nomination and saw my party making that activity moot. The intra-party fighting made it clear that the DNC had their candidate and no democratic process would change it.
Seeing this level of manipulation was discouraging. At state levels there was not much democracy in the primary process.
I didn't read any meat to this argument. The Democratic Party wants rural and working class voters, so what. What exactly is the Democratic Party offering in return? There is a similar essay up at the top of the opinion page at the NYT today, so what.
That Socialist running for NYC mayor at least has some concrete plans on offer. I might not agree with all of them but at least he is stating specific policies. Last week in an interview with David Leonhardt, Elizabeth Warren said Donald Trump ran to the left of Bernie Sanders on economic issues "left left, left"
Leonhardt: No, he ran to the left of Mitt Romney on economics.
Warren: Are you kidding? He ran to the left of Hillary Clinton. He ran to the left sometimes of Bernie Sanders. Come on. He ran left, left, left on the economy.
All these grandiose plans on winning back Hispanic and working class voters fall flat when they aren't attached to specific policies. How are we going to make it possible for people to hope their kids have a better life? How will we encourage people to have families and children instead of incentivising single parenthood? Where is the plan for a better life?
To judge by the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, cited by Vassallo, the Democrats plan to treat rural and working class voters as "vulnerable" groups like homosexuals and illegal aliens. Hence, this quote: "In addition to advocating for immigrants, LGBTQ, and other vulnerable groups, build a broader coalition by addressing grievances of rural & working people."
There are two big disadvantages with trying to make a political party out of a coalition of grievance groups. First, every group thinks their grievance is the most important one. You create a Victim Olympics instead of a coalition. Second, you lose the support of everybody who does not belong to an official grievance group. When they notice that you're putting their interests last, even blaming them for other people's grievances which they do not think they caused, they walk away.
That'll be fun with respect to rural voters. I want to see the "progressives" do a slalom around gun control, high energy prices, and transgenders. Oh, and that "Rural Urban Bridge Initiative?" Still flogging global warming. These people have learned nothing. They don't want to learn. They complain that industries treat rural areas like "resource colonies," while they park wind turbines and solar arrays out here to send power to their cities. Make no mistake, that "RUBI" treats rural America like vote colonies. Won't work.
Oooh, thanks for the link. I didn't see anything that detailed when I looked. I'd go through it now, but I have to get back outside to resume harvesting my marijuana plants. Only two of them, but they grew to 5 feet tall and very wide. For those who haven't done it, harvesting is a real pain in the ass. Word to the wise: Plastic gloves.
The upside is that growing you own next to the tomatoes makes you realize how laughably overpriced MJ is in the "dispensaries." I love that word, "dispensary." Tell me, is the liquor store where I get my Manhattan ingredients an "alcohol dispensary?" Anyway, if you grow from seed, 50 cents an ounce. Grow from clones, about a buck and a half. LOL
Yet another piece that’s basically: How can Democrats win back the voters they lost to Trump while doubling down on the policies that drove them away in the first place.
Saw a comment in Vox (I think) talking about nationalization of elections. Asserted that rural voters in Ohio know more about Mamdani than their local Democrats. Probably true and not good for Democrats. Centralization of media in NYC is a problem. Also a problem for Republicans as Conservative Inc. media is there too but they are not as pervasive.
As of 2016, more than half of journos lived in counties which Hillary Clinton won by 30 percentage points or more. source: Jack Shafer and Tucker Doherty, Politico.com If voters in rural Ohio know more about Mamdani than their local Democrats, the likely reason is that so many journos live in New York City.
So hapless Adams is out in NYC and pressure is mounting on weird Silwa. That will set up Mamdani v Cuomo. This will not be good for Democrats either. Someone will remember Cuomo saying conservatives (basically upstate) were not welcome in New York. Anything that happens in NYC is not good for Democrats. The more it is mentioned, the more the suspicion of rural voter is enhanced. I don't know how to extract all the journos, though.
Thanks for this great post, but if the Rural Democratic initiative is trying to de-nationalize issues and move out of constant-reaction mode to Trump, the first thing to do is get rid of that dumb name, Beyond Resistance. That is clearly too close to the latest hashtag that just sounds like more left-wing whining and, as you say, is not going to turn rural voters back to the Democrats. I just published a post on Hon Cheri Bustos, (D-IL) who left Congress in 2013 after 10 years of winning her bright red Rockford district by 20 points during mass voting for Trump. Her successor, Eric Sorensen, is another Democrat, whose website is absolutely silent re: his party affiliation. Both he and Bustos have won elections in that region by NOT focusing on politics - which are always inherently divisive - but on the economic issues that unite us all.
Yes, Democrats need a platform that isn't obsessing 24/7 about the Bad Orange Man which is what the talk about democracy is. I was appalled to find out that another No Kings day is planned. Be a big rally for The Groups. The demographics of Harris voters more closely resembles the Dole coalition than any other grouping at the national level. Republicans are over that and Democrats need to be too.
There is only confusion sown when democrats use the wrong word. To say “our democracy” is being destroyed by Trump, aren’t you really saying ”the progressive agenda” is being destroyed by Trump? Everyone knows Trump was duly elected by the majority of voters.
Clear communication will help “Democrats’ number one electoral problem: their appallingly dismal reputation in rural and small-town America.”
Clear communication about what specific policies? The Discrimination Financial Assistance Program (DFAP)? The $2B in financial relief that would only go to Black farmers?
A few things.
1. The special election "wins" in AZ and VA were in heavily D districts. Iowa? Long ways to go.
2. I have been a close watcher of polls, and see no drop in Trump's ratings once you eliminate outliers. Even with the outliers, which are outrageously biased outfits, Trump is still ahead of where Bush Jr. and Obama were at this point in their second terms.
3. The Democratic Party fiercely HATES ordinary people, which is why they have lost "the heartland." If they think this is a matter of "messaging," good luck.
to: #3 above. Yes they do. Over and over even down ticket races like county clerk come to people with connections to the party apparatus. There isn't room for new people to come in. Hate is too strong a word-- "don't care about" is more like it.
Well, yeah, hate is too strong. I was talking about the Dems as a national organization, and in many states, the same. Run mostly by trust fund grads from expensive colleges, funded by the usual coastal billionaires, staffed at the lower levels by people who bought into the b.s.
How did I do?
That's the ticket. Plus they give so many jobs to family members. Chuck Schumer's wife is Iris Weinshall. She serves as the chief operating officer (COO) of the New York Public Library. In this role, she earns upwards of $450,000.Why couldn't a librarian have that job?
To be fair, that's something that both sides do. It stinks equally.
I know they do, but they should not. Seems worse to me when Ds do it, tho.
I am an apostate Democrat but not a Republican, however it might look from my comments on this Substack. I don't like any of it. If I could dig up Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, I'd do it tomorrow. None of this crap would have survived then, or at least not nearly as much of it.
The point being, Trump and the Republicans can now take historically Democrat positions and execute them better. He is more flexible. Dems now have to become more Republican. They could start by not letting the country shut down. They can actually engage in the new way of doing legislative business and show they can get things done and be truly bipartisan.
All your rhetoric on Trump’s failures consistently misses the mark of his short time in power. Biden and the Dems just proved in four years all they can do is make things worse.
Can the Dems become more Republican? Not any time in the near future. Maybe not even until the Republicans make the country out of reach for the Dems.
Oh, and some how the Dems must prove they are sincere and my just, as Bernie said about Kamala, changing positions to win an election. How do over come that quite that will haunt the Dems for quite a while. Especially as the Dems
Leadership in large cities and states show they have no intention of changing their ways. So many conundrums, so few answers. Aren’t most the special elections being won in Dem strong holds? It sure appears that way.
Yup. I’m a MAGA Dem.
Thank you for FINALLY admitting to the massive voter registration changes I have been hammering you with for ONE YEAR. However, you might want to note that after Charlie Kirk's assassination, we have some 10-day numbers. They are devastating for Ds. The trend to the GOP accelerated. In NC, in the 10 days since Kirk, Rs net gained nearly four times what they had in previous weeks. In AZ's Maricopa CO., Rs net gained 2000. This is more than the average monthly gain.
However, I still don't think Ds are coming to grips with a major, massive structural collapse. You have the three big factors I've consistently pointed out: 1) voter roll purges. This obviously hurts Ds in any state with a D majority but doubly so in CA, where 2.1 m have been removed not counting LA and Orange Counties yet. When it's done, Rs will have net gained about 1.5m there; 2) deportations of illegal criminal alien invaders (this confirms Rs' suspicions all along that many---up to half?---were voting, and are part of the voter roll issue. So far, the deportations are 2m, but by 2026, they'll be close to 3-4 m. If just half of those have voted (almost certainly D) then you're losing another 1.5-2m voters nationally; 3) the voter reg changes you DO cite. CA, for ex, saw 48,000 net R gain in one month. I know, Ds have a 4 m advantage there. But figuring that at a 1m advantage many House races are at risk; even? the gov and senate seats are at risk. So when you pile on roll purges, illegal deportations, and standard (big) voter reg changes, CA has about 2 more years before it is competitive again, then the Ds really are finished. It is only CA, IL, and NY keeping the party competitive nationally.
Now, the OTHER structural issues are moving fast against Ds, with redistricting already costing the Ds a likely 6 seats---but with OH (R-2), IN (R+1), KS (R+1) and FL (R+2) minus CA (D+5) resulting in a net 7 gain in the House. Cook has "safe R" right now at 212 without these shifts, meaning that as of today the Rs are 219 "safe" for 2026. And that's even if Ds run the table on every single remaining race. (Unlikely)
Finally, I don't know about some of the other Special Elections, but anyone looking at Grijalva's race as an indicator are badly mistaken. I'm here in AZ. No one outside that district even knew there was a race; it's a HEAVY blue district; and Grijalva's daughter (name rec) was running. I never heard of the R candidate. But, if you want to make that a "test," be my guest.
I'll believe it when I see it in California. Not saying you're wrong, but I cannot help but be skeptical.
And you have every right to be. The #s are still daunting, a D lead of 4.1m. I think if it gest down to around 1m, CA will be competitive. I was surprised, for ex., years ago I met with conservative groups there and thought I'd find a bunch of RINOs. Nope. They were more hard core than I was. So chip, chip, chippin' away.
I actually went and looked at the voting history of that Arizona district that the Dems were celebrating. The numbers for dead guy's daughter were in the middle of the pack. Meh.
The way Dems handled primaries in the last election soured many Democrats--keeping RFJjr off ballots, not even having primaries in Florida. (The Florida Democratic Party submitted only Biden as a candidate on November 30, 2023, effectively cancelling the March 19 primary) I think Delaware did as well.
The Democratic National Committee and Clear Choice Action used so much against RFKjr-lawsuits, FEC complaints, challenges to ballot access petitions. I was an early supporter of RFK for the Democratic nomination and saw my party making that activity moot. The intra-party fighting made it clear that the DNC had their candidate and no democratic process would change it.
Seeing this level of manipulation was discouraging. At state levels there was not much democracy in the primary process.
Not new. They did the same to Bernie, twice. He was more compliant than RFK though. Pretty much ran Tulsi off too.
True, RFK fought harder and people know about it more. I saw the same at county level.
An outsider (not a DEC insider) got no support in primaries--not even candidate forums.
I didn't read any meat to this argument. The Democratic Party wants rural and working class voters, so what. What exactly is the Democratic Party offering in return? There is a similar essay up at the top of the opinion page at the NYT today, so what.
That Socialist running for NYC mayor at least has some concrete plans on offer. I might not agree with all of them but at least he is stating specific policies. Last week in an interview with David Leonhardt, Elizabeth Warren said Donald Trump ran to the left of Bernie Sanders on economic issues "left left, left"
Leonhardt: No, he ran to the left of Mitt Romney on economics.
Warren: Are you kidding? He ran to the left of Hillary Clinton. He ran to the left sometimes of Bernie Sanders. Come on. He ran left, left, left on the economy.
All these grandiose plans on winning back Hispanic and working class voters fall flat when they aren't attached to specific policies. How are we going to make it possible for people to hope their kids have a better life? How will we encourage people to have families and children instead of incentivising single parenthood? Where is the plan for a better life?
To judge by the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, cited by Vassallo, the Democrats plan to treat rural and working class voters as "vulnerable" groups like homosexuals and illegal aliens. Hence, this quote: "In addition to advocating for immigrants, LGBTQ, and other vulnerable groups, build a broader coalition by addressing grievances of rural & working people."
There are two big disadvantages with trying to make a political party out of a coalition of grievance groups. First, every group thinks their grievance is the most important one. You create a Victim Olympics instead of a coalition. Second, you lose the support of everybody who does not belong to an official grievance group. When they notice that you're putting their interests last, even blaming them for other people's grievances which they do not think they caused, they walk away.
That'll be fun with respect to rural voters. I want to see the "progressives" do a slalom around gun control, high energy prices, and transgenders. Oh, and that "Rural Urban Bridge Initiative?" Still flogging global warming. These people have learned nothing. They don't want to learn. They complain that industries treat rural areas like "resource colonies," while they park wind turbines and solar arrays out here to send power to their cities. Make no mistake, that "RUBI" treats rural America like vote colonies. Won't work.
I read through it. If I didn’t know better I would swear it’s parody. You have to click through several links to get to the meat https://static1.squarespace.com/static/610d482f3b9e856192886fe1/t/64ff7b03a6b4ca2bab7d2573/1695312480682/RuralNewDeal%3ARUBIandPDA.pdf
, but it’s basically the same garbage they’ve been pitching for a decade. It’s about as authentically rural as Tim Waltz
Oooh, thanks for the link. I didn't see anything that detailed when I looked. I'd go through it now, but I have to get back outside to resume harvesting my marijuana plants. Only two of them, but they grew to 5 feet tall and very wide. For those who haven't done it, harvesting is a real pain in the ass. Word to the wise: Plastic gloves.
The upside is that growing you own next to the tomatoes makes you realize how laughably overpriced MJ is in the "dispensaries." I love that word, "dispensary." Tell me, is the liquor store where I get my Manhattan ingredients an "alcohol dispensary?" Anyway, if you grow from seed, 50 cents an ounce. Grow from clones, about a buck and a half. LOL
Yet another piece that’s basically: How can Democrats win back the voters they lost to Trump while doubling down on the policies that drove them away in the first place.
Saw a comment in Vox (I think) talking about nationalization of elections. Asserted that rural voters in Ohio know more about Mamdani than their local Democrats. Probably true and not good for Democrats. Centralization of media in NYC is a problem. Also a problem for Republicans as Conservative Inc. media is there too but they are not as pervasive.
As of 2016, more than half of journos lived in counties which Hillary Clinton won by 30 percentage points or more. source: Jack Shafer and Tucker Doherty, Politico.com If voters in rural Ohio know more about Mamdani than their local Democrats, the likely reason is that so many journos live in New York City.
So hapless Adams is out in NYC and pressure is mounting on weird Silwa. That will set up Mamdani v Cuomo. This will not be good for Democrats either. Someone will remember Cuomo saying conservatives (basically upstate) were not welcome in New York. Anything that happens in NYC is not good for Democrats. The more it is mentioned, the more the suspicion of rural voter is enhanced. I don't know how to extract all the journos, though.
Again, I'm here in AZ and didn't even hear anything about this election. Totally gerrymandered blue district.
Meanwhile, Pima Co (Tucson) is down nearly a FULL POINT from 2024 levels for Ds.
Thanks for this great post, but if the Rural Democratic initiative is trying to de-nationalize issues and move out of constant-reaction mode to Trump, the first thing to do is get rid of that dumb name, Beyond Resistance. That is clearly too close to the latest hashtag that just sounds like more left-wing whining and, as you say, is not going to turn rural voters back to the Democrats. I just published a post on Hon Cheri Bustos, (D-IL) who left Congress in 2013 after 10 years of winning her bright red Rockford district by 20 points during mass voting for Trump. Her successor, Eric Sorensen, is another Democrat, whose website is absolutely silent re: his party affiliation. Both he and Bustos have won elections in that region by NOT focusing on politics - which are always inherently divisive - but on the economic issues that unite us all.