Both Parties Are Losing the Plot on Immigration

All-critical independent and Hispanic voters dislike both Trump’s deportation actions and anti-ICE protests.

With all eyes on Los Angeles this week, the country remains on edge about the state of current immigration policies and the approaches of both political parties in dealing with the administration’s actions on this front. Although President Trump continues to maintain a slight approval advantage on the issue of immigration overall, and on his basic goals with deportations, his current tack of authorizing high-profile ICE raids primarily in major urban areas—along with several error-filled arrests and detentions—is raising concerns among voters. At the same time, leftist protesters and progressive Democrats (those who are not engaged in traditional non-violent actions) are clearly driving voters away as images of destructive riots, attacks on law enforcement, burning cars, looting, and foreign flags on the streets of L.A. dominate the news.

As seen in new data from YouGov published this week, Americans appear to be losing patience with both parties and their leadership over the issue of immigration—most importantly among the critical pool of independent and Hispanic Americans who determine elections these days.

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration's handling of deportations?” 50 percent of U.S. adults overall say they disapprove, with 39 percent approving and 11 percent not sure. Examining the breakouts by party and race/ethnicity, you see that higher than average percentages of independents (54 percent) and Hispanics (55 percent) disapprove of Trump’s approach to deportations. Partisans themselves react in unsurprising ways: 84 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s actions, while an almost equal proportion of Democrats disapprove of his approach at 82 percent. White adults basically split on the matter (44 percent to 46 percent), and black adults firmly disapprove (25 percent to 63 percent).

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In a separate YouGov poll released this week, U.S. adults also express disapproval of President Trump’s deployment of Marines (47 percent disapprove, 34 percent approve) and National Guard soldiers (45 percent disapprove, 38 percent approve) to deal with the protests and rioting in L.A., with higher than average disapproval emerging from independents and Hispanics on both measures.

Moving to the issue of the protests, YouGov survey participants were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of recent protests in Los Angeles against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions?” Overall, 45 percent of adults disapprove of these protest actions, while 36 percent approve. Both independents (41 percent) and Hispanics (44 percent) break against the protests, siding with the plurality of Americans in their disapproval. Somewhat balancing out their firm partisan disapproval of Trump’s overall handling of deportations, more than one quarter of Democrats also disapprove of the L.A. protests, with another 16 percent not sure.

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What’s driving this plurality disapproval of the protests among independent and Hispanic voters? Perceptions of violence.

Asked, “Do you believe the protesters in Los Angeles against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions are mostly peaceful or mostly violent?” U.S. adults split (38 percent ‘peaceful’ to 36 percent ‘violent’), with more than one quarter not sure. Partisans on both sides align with expected positions—for example, nearly two-thirds of Democrats think the protesters are mostly peaceful, while an equal proportion of Republicans think they are mostly violent. Again, independents and Hispanics are more divided on the matter, with a small plurality of independents saying the protesters are mostly peaceful (35 percent ‘peaceful’ to 33 percent ‘violent’) and a slight plurality of Hispanics leaning the other way (37 percent ‘peaceful’ to 38 percent ‘violent’).

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Combined, these data findings tell us that neither political party is really winning the hearts and minds of non-partisan voters on the issue of immigration.

Republicans side with President Trump on his handling of deportations and express strong disapproval of the L.A. protesters and rioters (some peaceful, some not). Democrats mostly go the other way in opposing Trump on deportations and backing the protesters.

All of this is expected in America’s divided political landscape.

But, as with many other issues in American politics, the positions of less partisan groups like independents and Hispanics ultimately determine the overall tenor of the debate. On this matter, independent and swing groups dislike both Trump’s approach to deportations and leftist protest methods against these actions.

The impasse on immigration and deportations will only be resolved in terms of public opinion if or when one side is perceived to cross the line in a much more substantial manner. This means either (1) the Trump administration goes way too far in who is targeted for deportation (beyond the promised criminals and drug dealers) and in how these deportations are staged, or (2) Democrats and protesters go way too far beyond non-violent civil actions to support (or tacitly support) more rioting, violence, attacks on cops, looting, and property destruction.

Ideally for the country, both the Trump administration and anti-ICE protesters will come down from their most extreme positions to carry out immigration policy and enforcement (and reactions against it) in a rational, lawful, and non-violent manner.