Ok, well, I've stated this before in more subtle ways but here it is: while all those issue bullet points are fine, I think the completely miss Maslow's hierarchy #1, security and personal safety. Underlying all the crime, illegal alien invader stuff is a general perception---and I'm not exaggerating---that "Democrats want me/my family dead." I think while even in polls that would be hard to capture, because I think that while people THINK that they are not yet ready, in large #s, to say it. That is why the rate of leaving the D Party in these registration stats is stunning. Yes, Rs are gaining everywhere, but not as fast as Ds are losing. And with the murder of Iryna Zaerutska/Lakin Riley and before them Kate Steinle, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the attacks on ICE agents, the news that cartels are working with antifa and other such (well, fascist) groups, people have, I think, already internalized this view ("Democrats want me/my family dead.") Then Jay Jones comes along in VA and says exactly that. So it will take some more voter shifts to make clear to Democrats that this is what has happened.
"Yes, Rs are gaining everywhere, but not as fast as Ds are losing. "
I'm registered independent because at least in my state, you can look up voter registration. I don't want to be first in line to get fired next time a position is eliminated, or passed over for hiring. And I've thought seriously about registering as a Democrat. And I hate the ideals of the Democratic Party.
Yes, I get it. It's not that the GOP is so popular---though it is MUCH more popular than the old Bush/McCain/Romney wing---but that the Democrats have become so radical and outright dangerous no one can vote for them anymore.
OOPS. Well, I disagree with Mas. If someone has a knife to your throat you aren't thinking of your next meal. So I guess the imminence of the threat matters.
My wife was in a group of 5 women who were the first female police officers in Seattle, so probably the entire state, in 1975. Her whole career in law enforcement.
Right now, mainstream Democrats need to work on getting their party headed back in the right direction to be remotely competitive. Even just stopping the decline.
I say that as someone that's generally a Republican leaning voter. I want a competitive Democrat party so the other side (R) doesn't go off the rails to the right and also provides a credible option if they do.
Yes. U.S. absolutely needs 2 functioning parties. Rs seem to be getting stronger and they need a counterweight. I would note that many R initiatives are things Ds would have championed in the recent past. Ds are going to have to cut the progressives loose and let them form their own party (which while smaller would still be formidable). I cannot see a path where they reel in all these crazy beliefs righteously proclaimed with holy fervor and just say en masse “meh my bad.”
My friend, who is more liberal than I, but a moderate who reads different news sources than I do, says the Dems are fighting amongst themselves … and that the crazy things are going away like the trans stuff. Well, I say you cannot just make that go away, kids and young people have been irrevocably harmed. I don’t know that I believe them anyway unless they outright admit the areas where they overreached. That will not happen, they just want it to go away apparently
I heard recently, (don't ask for a link as I've no idea where) that a study of incoming freshmen showed a 50% drop in those claiming to be trans, this year compared to 23. Maybe they've all switched to becoming furries. Dems are shifting some, a little, and many are not. They are still rioting to disrupt ICE, and I've heard very little changes on immigration, or crime.
Great comment. Would only add, the only difference between the J6 rioters and Dem rioters is J6 participants were more harshly punished than any rioters in US history.
The BLM riots claimed more than 2 dozen lives, destroyed more than $2 billion dollars in property, purposely set ablaze an occupied Federal Courthouse and burned a police station and numerous private businesses to the ground. The Federal Courthouse arsonists were sentenced to all of 11 years, for what was actually attempted mass murder.
Meanwhile, many J6 rioters who mainly mainly made a mess in the Capitol for roughly 6 hours, saw multiyear prison sentences, often for no more than walking thru a federal building with selfie sticks. But for the BLM riots, J6 never happens. The main mistake of J6 participants was assuming they would be treated like BLM participants. They learned a harsh lesson on Dem lawfare.
"many J6 rioters who mainly mainly made a mess in the Capitol for roughly 6 hours, saw multiyear prison sentences, often for no more than walking thru a federal building with selfie sticks."
This may be one of the stupidest things I have read on Substack, and that is saying something since Andrew Sullivan has one.
Saying the J6 rioters mainly made a mess of the Capitol is like saying the Confederates were just tresspassing on Fort Sumter when they fired those cannons. I get that you are perfectly okay with the J6 rioters protesting because you likely bought in to all of the garbage on the web regarding "10,000 mules" and such, but just because you lack an ability to discern fact from fiction does not make it so.
I have no idea what 10,000 mules refers to unless it was the Gold Rush. I meant the only death on Jan 6 was a rioter not 2 dozen other people, and the building was not set on fire.
J6ers were mainly geriatrics, mentally unstable and often impoverished. It appears they brought in one pistol that never left a holster, and a multitool into one of the most well protected buildings on the planet. They could not have overthrown my HEB on Senior Day when it is full of elderly shoppers and teen age checkout kids.
"Saying the J6 rioters mainly made a mess of the Capitol is like saying the Confederates were just tresspassing on Fort Sumter when they fired those cannons."
That comment is not truth-seeking, but purely partisan bombast.
The confederates
-------------------
* Soldiers
* Armed
* Organized and funded military
* Formally seceded from the Union
* Had a plan and viable path to victory
* Killed more Americans than any other war
J6 Rioters
----------
* Civilians
* Unarmed
* Unorganized
* No path or plan to overturn the government or put Trump back in power
The Democrat's problem is that they haven't been "woke" ENOUGH. Democrats running for office should focus on the needs and interests of aged illiterate homeless undocumented little fat furry disabled neurodivergent ex-con Muslim gay trans BIPOC sex workers with AIDS.
Aspirational vision is grounded in people’s deepest needs and desires. The issue with the Democratic leadership is that 1) theses basic desires and needs are not part of their political DNA and 2) I see very little evidence that they have the creative imagination for how we could achieve them even if they understood them. They are just too locked into the past Being against things is not visionary
There's nothing stopping the Democratic party from making these issues a priority, mostly at very little cost, all it would take is a realignment of priorities. Much could be done via a change in tax incentives.
Imagine a tax credit for being married and having kids. Not refundable, but a credit from all taxes, even those paid by your employer, an instant $15.3% boost in pay, which ends up being 25% when income tax would normally kick in after the standard married filing joint deduction. A deduction that continues through age 22 if they are a student or working full time.
Free prenatal, birth, and pediatric.
Mandatory paid 3 week vacations that must be taken.
A good job is made by paying a sucky job well. The thing that made those union jobs good was the pay. Increase min x3 with a cola.
Many countries require nothing of mom and pop businesses until they become big enough to bother. Trump's 20% tax break on self employed income should be for everything below a couple hundred thousand profit.
I'd add some conservative ideas too, like paying off the debt, balancing the budget, eliminating almost all deductions other than the standard. I like Trump's tariffs, enforce e-verity until the 14 million illegal immigrants is about 0. Draft or a year of service otherwise.
For anyone who is confused. The Republicans represent the huge number of people on the with the survival and safety needs. The Democrats represent the smaller number of people with social and self-esteem needs. There are many great diagrams of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs online.
Can I ask what prompts that? It appears to me both from Medicaid enrollment and where Obamacare subsidies are used, that might not be accurate. CA, NY, Texas and FL have the largest populations and are pretty Blue or Red, not purple. 40% of Californians are Medicaid dependent. That means they are literally too poor for subsidized Obamacare. That is 14 million people and change. In NY, 33% are Medicaid dependent.
By comparison the Texas Medicaid enrollment is roughly 15%. FL is likewise roughly 15%. Looking at earnings is only half the equation, what is the cost of living in the state, relative to earnings, has a great deal to do with being secure. Home ownership rates tend to be higher in Red States, because owning a home is far more affordable, because supply is allowed to better meet demand.
Granted the above is small snap shop and I may be wrong, but it would imply Dems are more likely to have more acute safety and survival needs.
The picture that’s painted is one in which voters increasingly see Republicans as the party best suited to helping them build lives of material prosperity and personal achievement.”
“Democrats’ vision is to restore Obamacare subsidies and protect Medicaid? This smacks of trying to rerun an outdated 20thcentury playbook in a vastly changed 21st century where the big issues have changed and America”
“H]ealth care is unlikely to return to the center of American politics—not anytime soon. Oddly enough, one way to tell is that Republicans seem unusually willing to compromise on Democratic demands.”
“where Democrats’ unpopular stances satisfy their professional class supporters, but repel everyone else; it tends to privilege abundance that those supporters prize, like abundant clean energy, rather than the abundant life working-class voters are looking for;”
What makes you or Nate Cohn think that health care isn't a top issue, especially when the premium hikes hit? NYT poll in January put health care at #2 (#1 was economy).
I think Obamacare subsidies only effect 25 million people or so in a country of 335 million. Some earn in excess of 200K a year, and never had subsidies prior to Covid.
Far more Americans are covered by Medicaid, Medicare, have employer provided or private insurance.
Health care costs are a universal issue but what is being discussed is health insurance costs, which is harder for people to understand. Many can't afford anything to do with health care already, and if they do get sick they lose the house. Things aren't working out.
I think the health insurance premium spike is about to get very understandable very quickly for a lot of people. for people who are already uninsured (and probably on Medicaid), they too are about to get screwed.
"Their survey queried respondents on what each party wants for your life, covering marriage, having children, being able to retire, being able to regularly go on vacation, having a good job, owing a home, being your own boss, owning a car or truck, feeling stable in your personal life, and creating wealth for your children. Together these attainments make up the basics of what has traditionally been seen as a good life."
The thing that everyone forgets is that, prior to WW2, these defining elements of the good life were available to very few.of the working class. The financial position of the working class arguably peaked in 1973, just before the Arab oil embargo decimated so much of US manufacturing, exposing just how uncompetitive our auto industry was, inspiring the term "Rust Belt'. There have been good times for workers since then, but overall the rollercoaster has been headed downward ever since then. Many of today's workers grew up hearing stories of how their grandfather dropped out of high school and got a union job at the plant and retired owning a house, two cars and a Harley, with a pension that allowed him to take the family on a cruise every year. What too few of them hear is that those times were AN ANOMALY made possible by the US being the last man standing in the free world, and that the generous union deals were cut by timid occupants of various C-suites, who just wanted peace long enough to allow them to reach retirement, regards of what this meant for the future.
Our political parties are much like that, too. The Republicans promise to bring back " made in America " but then the President slaps tariffs on the very raw materials that would build and feed our factories (which, thanks to automation, employ far fewer people and need those employees to have advanced training), along with rounding up the illegal.workers who underpin so much of our productivity and keep construction and grocery prices lower than they would otherwise be.
Spot on as usual Ruy. And with the rise of leftist militancy and violence, especially in sanctuary states and cities, the Dems will continue to lose independent voters.
By the way, the latest voter reg #s for AZ are out and there is no letting up at all in the mega (MAGA?) shift to Rs, who now have a voter registration lead of 333,000 (was 110,000 in 2020). There was a total net gain for Rs since July of over 5,000---most of it new R signups, not D defections (only about 400). AZ is not even remotely purple anymore.
Ok, well, I've stated this before in more subtle ways but here it is: while all those issue bullet points are fine, I think the completely miss Maslow's hierarchy #1, security and personal safety. Underlying all the crime, illegal alien invader stuff is a general perception---and I'm not exaggerating---that "Democrats want me/my family dead." I think while even in polls that would be hard to capture, because I think that while people THINK that they are not yet ready, in large #s, to say it. That is why the rate of leaving the D Party in these registration stats is stunning. Yes, Rs are gaining everywhere, but not as fast as Ds are losing. And with the murder of Iryna Zaerutska/Lakin Riley and before them Kate Steinle, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the attacks on ICE agents, the news that cartels are working with antifa and other such (well, fascist) groups, people have, I think, already internalized this view ("Democrats want me/my family dead.") Then Jay Jones comes along in VA and says exactly that. So it will take some more voter shifts to make clear to Democrats that this is what has happened.
Ds are losing because of progressives' slamming of males, baby boomers, white people, and police.
We are life-long boomer Democrats, and fit all four.
So we have become Independents.
The worst thing that has happened to our country is the progressive movement. It has shifted the country to the right.
"Yes, Rs are gaining everywhere, but not as fast as Ds are losing. "
I'm registered independent because at least in my state, you can look up voter registration. I don't want to be first in line to get fired next time a position is eliminated, or passed over for hiring. And I've thought seriously about registering as a Democrat. And I hate the ideals of the Democratic Party.
Yes, I get it. It's not that the GOP is so popular---though it is MUCH more popular than the old Bush/McCain/Romney wing---but that the Democrats have become so radical and outright dangerous no one can vote for them anymore.
Larry---#1 on Maslow's Need Hierarchy is not security and personal safety. That is #2.
#1 is biological needs...food, shelter, etc.
OOPS. Well, I disagree with Mas. If someone has a knife to your throat you aren't thinking of your next meal. So I guess the imminence of the threat matters.
My wife was in a group of 5 women who were the first female police officers in Seattle, so probably the entire state, in 1975. Her whole career in law enforcement.
So, we'd agree with you about the Need Hierarchy.
Best.
Right now, mainstream Democrats need to work on getting their party headed back in the right direction to be remotely competitive. Even just stopping the decline.
I say that as someone that's generally a Republican leaning voter. I want a competitive Democrat party so the other side (R) doesn't go off the rails to the right and also provides a credible option if they do.
Couldn't agree more, but I see NO SIGN that they're trying. It's weird.
Yes. U.S. absolutely needs 2 functioning parties. Rs seem to be getting stronger and they need a counterweight. I would note that many R initiatives are things Ds would have championed in the recent past. Ds are going to have to cut the progressives loose and let them form their own party (which while smaller would still be formidable). I cannot see a path where they reel in all these crazy beliefs righteously proclaimed with holy fervor and just say en masse “meh my bad.”
I concur. 👍
My friend, who is more liberal than I, but a moderate who reads different news sources than I do, says the Dems are fighting amongst themselves … and that the crazy things are going away like the trans stuff. Well, I say you cannot just make that go away, kids and young people have been irrevocably harmed. I don’t know that I believe them anyway unless they outright admit the areas where they overreached. That will not happen, they just want it to go away apparently
I heard recently, (don't ask for a link as I've no idea where) that a study of incoming freshmen showed a 50% drop in those claiming to be trans, this year compared to 23. Maybe they've all switched to becoming furries. Dems are shifting some, a little, and many are not. They are still rioting to disrupt ICE, and I've heard very little changes on immigration, or crime.
The Democrats have a very clear vision of a post-Enlightenment world based on:
- group-based power sharing via identity politics and DEI
- open borders because no human being is illegal
- defunded police because we don't make criminals and then punish them
- greater wealth transfers to fix systemic injustice
- green energy for the climate - deindustrialization is a small price to pay for climate justice
- children being taught to be open and exploratory of gender and orientation at very young ages
Whether or not people actually like this vision is a different question entirely.
Edit: I do agree that healthcare is a winning issue for the Democrats, and its one of their few policies that I support.
Great comment. Would only add, the only difference between the J6 rioters and Dem rioters is J6 participants were more harshly punished than any rioters in US history.
The BLM riots claimed more than 2 dozen lives, destroyed more than $2 billion dollars in property, purposely set ablaze an occupied Federal Courthouse and burned a police station and numerous private businesses to the ground. The Federal Courthouse arsonists were sentenced to all of 11 years, for what was actually attempted mass murder.
Meanwhile, many J6 rioters who mainly mainly made a mess in the Capitol for roughly 6 hours, saw multiyear prison sentences, often for no more than walking thru a federal building with selfie sticks. But for the BLM riots, J6 never happens. The main mistake of J6 participants was assuming they would be treated like BLM participants. They learned a harsh lesson on Dem lawfare.
"many J6 rioters who mainly mainly made a mess in the Capitol for roughly 6 hours, saw multiyear prison sentences, often for no more than walking thru a federal building with selfie sticks."
This may be one of the stupidest things I have read on Substack, and that is saying something since Andrew Sullivan has one.
Saying the J6 rioters mainly made a mess of the Capitol is like saying the Confederates were just tresspassing on Fort Sumter when they fired those cannons. I get that you are perfectly okay with the J6 rioters protesting because you likely bought in to all of the garbage on the web regarding "10,000 mules" and such, but just because you lack an ability to discern fact from fiction does not make it so.
I have no idea what 10,000 mules refers to unless it was the Gold Rush. I meant the only death on Jan 6 was a rioter not 2 dozen other people, and the building was not set on fire.
J6ers were mainly geriatrics, mentally unstable and often impoverished. It appears they brought in one pistol that never left a holster, and a multitool into one of the most well protected buildings on the planet. They could not have overthrown my HEB on Senior Day when it is full of elderly shoppers and teen age checkout kids.
"Saying the J6 rioters mainly made a mess of the Capitol is like saying the Confederates were just tresspassing on Fort Sumter when they fired those cannons."
That comment is not truth-seeking, but purely partisan bombast.
The confederates
-------------------
* Soldiers
* Armed
* Organized and funded military
* Formally seceded from the Union
* Had a plan and viable path to victory
* Killed more Americans than any other war
J6 Rioters
----------
* Civilians
* Unarmed
* Unorganized
* No path or plan to overturn the government or put Trump back in power
* Killed no one
The Democrat's problem is that they haven't been "woke" ENOUGH. Democrats running for office should focus on the needs and interests of aged illiterate homeless undocumented little fat furry disabled neurodivergent ex-con Muslim gay trans BIPOC sex workers with AIDS.
The hilarious and ironic thing is that for Democrats to fix what is broken they would need to adopt Trump's platform.
Aspirational vision is grounded in people’s deepest needs and desires. The issue with the Democratic leadership is that 1) theses basic desires and needs are not part of their political DNA and 2) I see very little evidence that they have the creative imagination for how we could achieve them even if they understood them. They are just too locked into the past Being against things is not visionary
There's nothing stopping the Democratic party from making these issues a priority, mostly at very little cost, all it would take is a realignment of priorities. Much could be done via a change in tax incentives.
Imagine a tax credit for being married and having kids. Not refundable, but a credit from all taxes, even those paid by your employer, an instant $15.3% boost in pay, which ends up being 25% when income tax would normally kick in after the standard married filing joint deduction. A deduction that continues through age 22 if they are a student or working full time.
Free prenatal, birth, and pediatric.
Mandatory paid 3 week vacations that must be taken.
A good job is made by paying a sucky job well. The thing that made those union jobs good was the pay. Increase min x3 with a cola.
Many countries require nothing of mom and pop businesses until they become big enough to bother. Trump's 20% tax break on self employed income should be for everything below a couple hundred thousand profit.
I'd add some conservative ideas too, like paying off the debt, balancing the budget, eliminating almost all deductions other than the standard. I like Trump's tariffs, enforce e-verity until the 14 million illegal immigrants is about 0. Draft or a year of service otherwise.
Ruy, a very enlightening assessment as usual.
For anyone who is confused. The Republicans represent the huge number of people on the with the survival and safety needs. The Democrats represent the smaller number of people with social and self-esteem needs. There are many great diagrams of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs online.
Can I ask what prompts that? It appears to me both from Medicaid enrollment and where Obamacare subsidies are used, that might not be accurate. CA, NY, Texas and FL have the largest populations and are pretty Blue or Red, not purple. 40% of Californians are Medicaid dependent. That means they are literally too poor for subsidized Obamacare. That is 14 million people and change. In NY, 33% are Medicaid dependent.
By comparison the Texas Medicaid enrollment is roughly 15%. FL is likewise roughly 15%. Looking at earnings is only half the equation, what is the cost of living in the state, relative to earnings, has a great deal to do with being secure. Home ownership rates tend to be higher in Red States, because owning a home is far more affordable, because supply is allowed to better meet demand.
Granted the above is small snap shop and I may be wrong, but it would imply Dems are more likely to have more acute safety and survival needs.
“Searchlight Institute notes:
The picture that’s painted is one in which voters increasingly see Republicans as the party best suited to helping them build lives of material prosperity and personal achievement.”
“Democrats’ vision is to restore Obamacare subsidies and protect Medicaid? This smacks of trying to rerun an outdated 20thcentury playbook in a vastly changed 21st century where the big issues have changed and America”
“H]ealth care is unlikely to return to the center of American politics—not anytime soon. Oddly enough, one way to tell is that Republicans seem unusually willing to compromise on Democratic demands.”
“where Democrats’ unpopular stances satisfy their professional class supporters, but repel everyone else; it tends to privilege abundance that those supporters prize, like abundant clean energy, rather than the abundant life working-class voters are looking for;”
Think it was summed up with the phrase from the last campaign “she’s for them. He’s for you.”
What makes you or Nate Cohn think that health care isn't a top issue, especially when the premium hikes hit? NYT poll in January put health care at #2 (#1 was economy).
I think Obamacare subsidies only effect 25 million people or so in a country of 335 million. Some earn in excess of 200K a year, and never had subsidies prior to Covid.
Far more Americans are covered by Medicaid, Medicare, have employer provided or private insurance.
Wait, are you saying health care costs are a liberal elite issue?
Health care costs are a universal issue but what is being discussed is health insurance costs, which is harder for people to understand. Many can't afford anything to do with health care already, and if they do get sick they lose the house. Things aren't working out.
I think the health insurance premium spike is about to get very understandable very quickly for a lot of people. for people who are already uninsured (and probably on Medicaid), they too are about to get screwed.
"Their survey queried respondents on what each party wants for your life, covering marriage, having children, being able to retire, being able to regularly go on vacation, having a good job, owing a home, being your own boss, owning a car or truck, feeling stable in your personal life, and creating wealth for your children. Together these attainments make up the basics of what has traditionally been seen as a good life."
The thing that everyone forgets is that, prior to WW2, these defining elements of the good life were available to very few.of the working class. The financial position of the working class arguably peaked in 1973, just before the Arab oil embargo decimated so much of US manufacturing, exposing just how uncompetitive our auto industry was, inspiring the term "Rust Belt'. There have been good times for workers since then, but overall the rollercoaster has been headed downward ever since then. Many of today's workers grew up hearing stories of how their grandfather dropped out of high school and got a union job at the plant and retired owning a house, two cars and a Harley, with a pension that allowed him to take the family on a cruise every year. What too few of them hear is that those times were AN ANOMALY made possible by the US being the last man standing in the free world, and that the generous union deals were cut by timid occupants of various C-suites, who just wanted peace long enough to allow them to reach retirement, regards of what this meant for the future.
Our political parties are much like that, too. The Republicans promise to bring back " made in America " but then the President slaps tariffs on the very raw materials that would build and feed our factories (which, thanks to automation, employ far fewer people and need those employees to have advanced training), along with rounding up the illegal.workers who underpin so much of our productivity and keep construction and grocery prices lower than they would otherwise be.
Spot on as usual Ruy. And with the rise of leftist militancy and violence, especially in sanctuary states and cities, the Dems will continue to lose independent voters.
I used to hate him (Teixeira). Either he's changed or I have. Maybe both. The "conservative populist" term is worth five bucks anytime.
By the way, the latest voter reg #s for AZ are out and there is no letting up at all in the mega (MAGA?) shift to Rs, who now have a voter registration lead of 333,000 (was 110,000 in 2020). There was a total net gain for Rs since July of over 5,000---most of it new R signups, not D defections (only about 400). AZ is not even remotely purple anymore.