Democrats in a Populist Era

They’re still lost.

Trump’s “golden age” is presenting Democrats with a golden opportunity. The reason isn’t excesses around DOGE, deportation, DEI, universities, research funding, and the like—though all of these have been problems for the Trump administration. But they pale in comparison to current developments around Trump’s tariff regime and its economic effects. Put simply, while Trump’s populist working-class coalition was certainly animated by issues around cultural leftism, illegal immigration, and government waste, they also believed putting him in office would fix what they viewed as a broken economic system.

That does not appear to be happening. The chaotic rollout of Trump’s tariff regime has simply made voters more nervous about the economy rather than convincing them the economic system is being fixed. Trump’s average net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) on the economy is now -10 points and on inflation it is -13 points. Economic approval ratings were Trump’s great strength in his first term! No more.

A CBS News poll taken right before “Liberation Day” (whose aggressive tariffs have only increased economic angst and uncertainty) found that views on whether Trump’s policies are making you financially better or worse off have flipped since January; the percentage believing Trump policies are making them better off has declined by about 20 points and now those who believe Trump’s policies are making them worse off far outnumbers the “better off” group. As for the tariffs specifically an overwhelming 72 percent believe they will make the prices they pay go up rather than down (a mere 5 percent).

And here’s the kicker: by more than 2:1 (64 percent to 31 percent) people believe the administration is not focusing enough on lowering the price of goods and services but the result is reversed for tariffs—they strongly feel the administration is focusing too much on this area. That marks a clear break between Trump and working-class priorities and a big—a golden—opportunity for Democrats.

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But can they make the most of it? It seems doubtful at this point. Of course, they will pillory the Trump administration mercilessly for their economic mistakes and the pain and uncertainty voters are experiencing. That’s Politics 101: make the incumbent administration pay when the economy goes south.

The problem, however, is that Democrats are still struggling to find their way in the current populist era where they are the Establishment in the eyes of the working class and their brand therefore extremely unpopular—“toxic” as even many Democrats have put it. By definition, beating up on the Trump administration doesn’t do much to change that brand; you’re simply trying to make the other party more unpopular than you.

What would be better—much better—would be for Democrats to use this opportunity to craft a new image for themselves that connects to the populist zeitgeist. Otherwise their denunciations of Trump and the GOP, however hard-hitting and creative, will strike working-class voters as an implicit defense of the Establishment and the current system.

That’s not what these voters want, even those among them who are disconcerted with Trump’s actions and worry about their economic effects. As David Shor has documented, we live in a country where 78 percent of voters think change is more important than preserving America’s institutions and where delivering a “shock to the system” is preferred to a “return to basic stability.” Democrats need to make their sale in that populist environment not in deep blue, highly-educated America where anti-Trump sentiment easily outruns the populist impulse. Those voters are not the Democrats’ problem.

With that in mind, let’s look at what the Democrats have on offer to take advantage of Trump’s vulnerabilities. I’d put the approaches in three basic buckets:

1. Resist! This is the default option for most Democrats. Everything Trump does must be resisted all the time. The latest economic problems are just one more manifestation of his unspeakable evil. The important thing is to Fight! Those like Chuck Schumer, who pursue practical compromises, should be pushed aside in favor of leaders who wave the blue flag of resistance high. Cory Booker’s 25-hour filibuster against the administration is precisely the right spirit. The nationwide “Hands Off!” demonstrations on April 5 show that the masses are rallying to the cause, etc.

Implicitly, “hands off” also means hands off all Democrats priorities, programs and interest groups—in other words a return to the status quo ante, which we already know populist working-class voters don’t want. This approach seems well-designed to rally the Democratic faithful going into the midterms but not to change the image of the Democratic Party.

2. Fight the Oligarchy! This is a close cousin of the Resist! approach, which essentially juices it with a heavy dose of naïve economic populism. Basically, not only is Trump doing all these terrible things but he is doing them to enrich the oligarchy and maintain their power. They twirl their moustaches and laugh (bwa-ha-ha) as Trump does their bidding! This approach is particularly popular on the left of the party and is currently on nationwide tour with the redoubtable AOC and the ageless Bernie Sanders. Perhaps coming soon to a theater near you.

I get why this seems like a good idea. As noted, it certainly makes sense that in our current populist era, Democrats need to be responsive to that populist mood. But it makes much less sense that an aggressive economic populist pitch by itself is a sort of get-out-of-jail free card for a party whose brand among working-class voters has been profoundly damaged. In fact, it’s completely ridiculous, a comforting myth for Democrats who don’t want to make hard choices.

To begin with, Democrats have plenty of oligarchs on their side that they seem much less interested in fighting (remember JB Pritzker, who proudly proclaimed himself a billionaire at the Democratic convention, and the countless other fabulously wealthy individuals in the Democratic orbit). Voters are not unaware of this fact.

They are also painfully aware that the professional-dominated educated upper middle class who occupy positions of administrative and cultural power is overwhelmingly Democratic. To working-class voters, the professional upper middle class may not be the super-rich but they are elites just the same—junior oligarchs if you will.

This is a bitter pill for most Democratic elites to swallow. In today’s America, they are the Establishment even if in their imaginations they are sticking it to the Man and fighting nobly for social justice. The failure to understand that they themselves are targets of populist anger is a central reason their populist pitch fails—and will fail—to get traction among the working class. Call it the “old wine in new bottles” problem—these voters hear the economic populist words but they sense that behind them is the same old Democratic Party with the same old elites and the same old cultural priorities. So far, the Fight the Oligarchy! crowd has done nothing that would disabuse working class voters of this notion.

3. Abundance Now! This approach is gaining adherents in Democratic circles though it lags far, far behind the first two approaches. But it has the advantage of directly posing an actually different path for Democrats thereby mitigating the old wine in new bottles problem. The central idea of the approach is to radically reduce the barriers, bottlenecks, and regulations that prevent Democratic governance from meeting progressive goals in areas like housing, infrastructure, and public services. Their approach aims to make these things “abundant” and therefore tamp down the widespread anger at Democratic governing failures.

This is promising and, as Derek Thompson has pointed out, a sort of “centrist populism,” where the elites standing in the way of getting things done are targeted, is consistent with an abundance approach. That would speak to the populist moment in a way that is certainly fresher than just bashing the rich, which is well past its sell-by date.

However, the very elites that such a centrist populism might target are by and large Democratic, presenting an awkward problem for abundance Democrats. Are they willing to take on “the Groups” and entrenched interest groups that are likely to fight a drive for deregulation and efficiency tooth and nail? So far, I’m not seeing it. A failure on this front will undercut the whole abundance project and vitiate any populist appeal to working-class voters.

Moreover, the goals of an abundance approach tend to be linked to a concept of abundance that does not line up well with the preferences of actually-existing working-class voters who, quite simply, want to be richer and have more stuff. Abundance Democrats, on the other hand, seem to have in mind a socially liberal ecotopia that is highly appealing to educated, upper middle class liberals but much less so to the working class. As Josh Barro notes Democratic abundance advocates tend to support “policies that would make energy, and the aspirational suburban lifestyle, more expensive.” And that lifestyle, he points out, is what “abundance” means for most ordinary Americans. Arizona Democratic senator Ruben Gallego underscores the issue: “Every Latino man wants a big-ass truck.”

Call it the “big-ass truck problem.” Any abundance approach in a populist era needs to reckon with this problem. Otherwise, like the other Democratic approaches, it will fall short among the populist working class.

Democrats who truly want to find their way in our current populist era need some new approaches. But first they should accept that they’re still lost. That is the beginning of wisdom and renewal.