Democrats Must Get Uncomfortable to Win the Senate
They need candidates that can win conservative states.
The 2026 Senate map is rough terrain for Democrats. So when Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap floated a lateral into federal politics last month, Democrats hoping to unseat Susan Collins must have been thrilled. Dunlap, after all, a born and raised Mainer, had served in the state legislature and as Secretary of State before becoming the state’s top accountant in 2021. Even against a perennial overperformer like Collins, his strong local ties and high name recognition would make for a competitive race in a blue-leaning year.
Except Dunlap wasn’t talking about the Senate race.
Dunlap is instead thinking about primarying—from the left—a member of his own party, the 2nd District’s Jared Golden. Baffling doesn’t even begin to describe it. To have any shot at flipping the four seats needed for a Senate majority, Democrats must win Maine. But that does not appear to concern Dunlap. His attention is instead directed towards taking down a Democrat who has insufficiently toed the party line. Never mind that Golden is perhaps the only Democrat who can hold his Trump +9 district. Never mind that there is still no credible candidate to take on Collins. Ideological purity proves more important than winning majorities.
The strange situation in the Pine Tree State is just the beginning of Democrats’ Senate problems heading into 2026. In order to win a majority, Democrats must nominate candidates who can win red states, not just the battlegrounds—a necessity that is in direct tension with the preferences of the party’s primary voters.
Right now, these highly engaged Democrats want a fighter. Someone who will call Trump names and vote against him 100 percent of the time. Last week’s gubernatorial primary in New Jersey offered a hint of what the base is after. Rep. Mikie Sherrill cruised to victory on a platform of fighting back against the administration (and Elon Musk), while Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Blue Dog moderate more prone to compromise, placed 4th—despite having spent the most on ads. The base simply wasn’t buying his brand of politics.
Of course, a Democrat like Sherrill should do well in a state like New Jersey. But to expand the Senate map, Democratic candidates must tack hard to the center. This means breaking from the party on high-salience issues and even occasionally signaling support for the administration. A one-track “fight Trump” approach won’t cut it when you need to win swaths of Trump voters. There is no magic progressive message, no undiscovered bloc of left-wing voters waiting in the wings. Camo hats and cowboy boots won’t successfully launder unpopular policies.
Understandably, this moderation will make many Democrats uncomfortable. Just look at Dunlap and Golden’s entanglement. Some on the left simply can’t fathom a tent wide enough for a member who represents a Trump +9 district. But these same purists preach policies that require a Democratic trifecta to enact. So they are stuck between a rock and a hard place: maintain their treasured ideological conformity or back moderate candidates who won’t vote their way all the time.
To their credit, Democrats have actually done an excellent job with battleground Senate recruitment. Republicans, meanwhile, have backed some real kooks. Holding both seats in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada is no small feat (though made easier by the likes of Herschel Walker and Kari Lake). Red states, however, are another beast. So where do Democrats need to compete in 2026 to have a shot at the Senate? Let’s take a look.
Maine and North Carolina are squarely in tier 1: the must-haves. Without winning both, the chances of majority leader Chuck Schumer tick down to near zero. The odds of a top-tier candidate in Maine don’t look great, but Democrats can hold out hope they might land their white whale in the Tar Heel State: former Governor Roy Cooper. With proven crossover appeal, Cooper would prove an excellent challenger to Republican Thom Tillis, especially if the incumbent must first slog through a primary challenge from the right.
After the pair on the eastern seaboard, things get red quickly. Next up are Iowa (Trump +13), Ohio (Trump +11), and Texas (Trump +14). In Iowa, J.D. Scholten, a state rep from Sioux City, appears the most promising challenger to incumbent Joni Ernst, particularly after Rob Sand opted for a gubernatorial bid instead. Scholten put up strong numbers in a pair of congressional bids and outran Harris by 9 points in his legislative district last year. If Iowa Democrats give Scholten the leeway to court Trump voters, we could be in for a close race—that is, if Scholten can sneak past his progressive primary challengers.
Though a hair bluer than its midwestern companion, Ohio is an even harder get for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Jon Husted (appointed after Vance’s elevation) looks like a strong candidate with broad appeal. One potential wild card: Sherrod Brown. The former senator is likely the best candidate Democrats could run, but recruiting him back into the fray is another matter. Even if he joins the race, the GOP probably remains the favorite.
Longtime dreams of a blue Texas were shattered last fall when the Lone Star State rocketed eight points to the right. Nevertheless, Democrats are once again gearing up to compete in 2026. Colin Allred has floated another bid, but the biggest chip yet to fall is over on the GOP side, where John Cornyn faces a fierce primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Early polling shows Paxton in the lead, despite real questions about his general election viability. If Paxton wins and if Democrats find a cultural moderate and if the national environment is very blue, Democrats have a fighter’s chance. But those are some Texas-sized ifs.
To hit 51 seats, Democrats must find a way to win two of the three (plus Maine and North Carolina). The odds are long. But pipe dreams of structural change are not coming to the rescue. The Senate isn’t headed towards expansion. College-educated liberals will still dominate the primary electorate. So Democrats have to win the old-fashioned way: find and nominate candidates who fit their states—even though those states are red.
Say the Dems manage to field enough centrist moderates and win control of the Senate. Then what? That handful of centrist senators would have to swim upstream against the party’s own entrenched ideological purity. They’d be isolated and sneered at.
The Dems’ problem is much larger and more profound than simply needing to elect a few moderates in swing- and red states. The party as a whole is suffering from TDS and is all-in on positions that aren’t based in reality, like men are women just because they say so, and progressive-style racism is virtuous.
I don’t follow the author’s first premise: why would he claim that someone wanting to primary Golden from the left would be a good candidate to run against Collins?
I was a lifelong Democrat until re-registering as an independent last year. I only waited that long because I wanted to vote against Biden in the primaries. I still see Republican cruelty as sickening (eg, Medicaid), yet I also see Democratic denial of reality and its embrace of Stalinist tendencies as a real and very serious threat to the country. Sure, it’s nascent softball Stalinism right now, but given power and time, I don’t want to think about the damage they could inflict on this country. Bring this up, and the reply from the left is “Trump is a Nazi fascist!!” As long as the Dems can’t see past their hatred of the other side, they’ll never be able to see their own very significant faults.
The Dems need a reboot. I don’t know how that will happen outside of losing, again and again. It makes me ill to see what the party of FDR and LBJ and MLK has turned into.
The Democratic Party isn't a conservative organization and has no prospect of becoming one. So what is a hypothetical candidate supposed to do to appeal to conservative voters. Lie about what he will do once in office? Admittedly, that tactic has had some success in the past in places like Montana but the opposition is catching on. Better to have an actual policy platform beyond anti-Trump. And it has to be something beyond the normal left-right distinction. I suggest populist fusion. An actual populist like Sherrod Brown missed the fusion part and got sucked down by the toxic brand of the Democratic Party. He lost to a car dealer, for God's sake.