The economy is strengthening and seems likely to continue to do so -- certainly in contrast to the economic debacle and deep hole left by the Biden non-presidency -- and regardless what people may believe or feel.
A more enlightening poll might reveal where people get most of their news about the economy and the major sources and influences for their conclusions. Could it be the glass half empty/half full syndrome that says as much if not more about media spin and existing political bias above economic truths?
True, feelings can and will often effect political outcomes, but that can be both a reality and a danger.
Anyone whose looking at the data and being honest knows we're more or less in 'treading water' territory.
The stock market has been fine--although way more volatile than from 2022-2024--but the labor market has softened and job growth has slowed down, (the U-6 was at 6.6 in April 2023, now it's at 7.9) while prices have remained elevated. In the case of the latter, there was a decent dip in the PCE from December to January, but it's been mostly growing since then, while CPI has continued to climb above the Fed's 2% target.
Although if your definition of inflation is 'a decline in the value of the dollar', rather than just 'a rise in relative prices', inflation's been *really* bad--the dollar has fallen from a 20-year high in January to a level not far off from the trough it hit in July 2023.
Partially as a result, interest rates--the real ones, set by the market and expressed in the yields from long-dated treasury auctions--have stayed elevated. On Monday the 30-year treasury yield was at 4.84--the only time it's been higher in the past few years was in October through November of 2023, at the peak of Biden era inflation. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30)
Industrial production has been alright, but manufacturing employment is also down from its 5-year peak in February 2023. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP)
We're outperforming other countries by most metrics, but that's been true since the end of COVID.
Good points. Uncertainty and volatility are at least two things markets don't like, and don't respond well to.
The point I apparently did not make concisely enough is if Trump's economic successes, and there have been some, are either ignored or spun negatively by much of the Legacy media, the benefits can be muted by the same media that tried to tell usJoe Biden has never been cognitively sharper.
Conversely, if Trump's economic cheerleading proves as failed as his opposition's attacks, the GOP will pay in 2026 and probably worse by 2028 assuming the economy has worsened.
Elections are the only political polls that matter. A lot can happen in a year; even more in 3 years.
Some are saying that the relatively flat labor growth hides the fact that close to 2 million native born Americans gained jobs and a similar number of foreign born lost jobs. January through July that is. They don't separate out foreign born citizens, residents, or illegal immigrants.
Many people might not be answering the door for the household survey (officially called the Current Population Survey CPS)
I ask suppliers, managers, immigrant subcontractors, etc every time I cross paths. Many do say things are "slow", also labor costs are decidedly up. I found the rates paid immigrant subs to be ungodly low. For something that pays $50 per unit labor and profit, companies are paying subs $10 and keeping the $40 while paying none of the workers comp, liability insurance, or payroll withholding. On the flip side unskilled labor with a real social security number working as an hourly employee starts at $23 to $25 an hour.
And the point being, I trust, is come on in the legal way, bring or earn a skill and get paid in a week what you probably couldnt earn in a month or more in your native land?
I have appreciation for knowledgeable people who do good work, and are effectively small business people. My appreciation doesn't extend to making Americans more poor. My loyalty is to my fellow citizens. The earnings differential is actually much greater as many people come from places that pay far below Mexico City wages. I speak enough Spanish to get along, and have lived in countries similar enough to Central America such that I'm comfortable with foreign workers, my objection isn't to them, it's to our system that exploits them and American workers both.
The company who bought out all the local legit companies, and is paying rock bottom subcontractor prices is not contributing to our society except to offer services at a lower price, and they are never there for a repair. We've lost many of the alternative routes for people to earn a middle class life.
Supply and demand are strong in the labor market. Bringing millions of workers has pushed wages down for decades. It's neoliberalism.
Look at these data. The economy is fine. People are saving money--not, in general, living paycheck to paycheck. The bottom 20% of earners get $64K in government benefits, so the number of poor has decreased massively in our lifetime.
Food prices are cheaper than they were 75 years ago.
I just don't understand what people mean when they say the economy is bad. Our parents lived through a really bad economy (the depression). Compared with that, everybody in our country is a rich person. That wasn't that long ago.
One needs to keep in mind that in survey research a HUGE contributing factor is Social Desirability. People answer questions in a socially desirable fashion, which is why you see the huge Republican/Democratic splits. This doesn't mean they REALLY feel the way the question asks......they are, instead, answering a different question (i.e., what SHOULD I say?).
If all of these surveyed folks would have to explain their answers, then one would see how probably the data don't show what it looks like the data shows.
This economy can't be blamed on either Trump or Biden. Yes they were both President, and yes things have generally soured, but this thing didn't happen overnight. When the economy was "good" it was still bad for a large swath of the population. Wages began flat lining back in 72 or so, and as productivity grew, wages for most people didn't. This economy began fifty years ago. Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, plenty of blame to go around, the question is will things get fixed.
Some have done well, the professional managerial class has seen steady income gains, to cover their guilt they point fingers at the billionaires, or the working class.
Again, we see big partisan differences here, with more than 70 percent of Democrats and half of independents expecting higher inflation in the next six months compared to around 40 percent of Republicans who expect inflation to be lower.
Are we to assume, you didn't say, that 50% of independents are not expecting inflation to be worse?
The left and right have different definitions of better off. To compare the two is irrelevant. What matters are indepedants and the disaffected minority Dems that left the party. That last group is the one that matters for opinions on the economy and whether or not they are better off. They made that obvious when they walked.
Democrats and others had 4 yeas to rate the biden administration. Trump has only had 200+ days. The time difference makes the question useless.
I have become more skeptical of polls as we see them everyday. What I trust are the comments. Especially on this site where there are many from the right and independents as opposed to those from the left we would find on other right leaning sites.
In other words, your content is alright, your comment section needs more comments, but is very educational.
The economy is a classic risk-reward scenario for Trump and the Republicans. I think he over-promised, like he always has done, but if things work out it will be a home run or at least a line-drive double or triple to center-right field. The Dems have been far, far, FAR too pessimistic about tariffs. If I were forced to place a bet on how it will go, I'd bet on Trump. Not a sure thing, but I think the wind is at his back. I think the burst of inflation under Biden did a whole lot of damage.
I am firmly an economic determinist when it comes to presidential politics. The elections since WWII show it. We won't know who'll win in '28 until July of that year when the household survey of unemployment is released. By then, there will be an 80-year track record of its predictive value, with only one clear exception and a second instance of a miss because of a statistical anomaly.
In essence: The November result will be determined by the spring economy. All the rest is yammering, including my own. If the June '28 unemployment rate isn't lower than the March '28 unemployment rate, the Democratic candidate will almost certainly beat Vance.
AI is a dark cloud on the horizon, and I think a lot of people have anxiety about it eliminating employment opportunities - especially older Americans who worry about themselves and their kids.
The economy is strengthening and seems likely to continue to do so -- certainly in contrast to the economic debacle and deep hole left by the Biden non-presidency -- and regardless what people may believe or feel.
A more enlightening poll might reveal where people get most of their news about the economy and the major sources and influences for their conclusions. Could it be the glass half empty/half full syndrome that says as much if not more about media spin and existing political bias above economic truths?
True, feelings can and will often effect political outcomes, but that can be both a reality and a danger.
Anyone whose looking at the data and being honest knows we're more or less in 'treading water' territory.
The stock market has been fine--although way more volatile than from 2022-2024--but the labor market has softened and job growth has slowed down, (the U-6 was at 6.6 in April 2023, now it's at 7.9) while prices have remained elevated. In the case of the latter, there was a decent dip in the PCE from December to January, but it's been mostly growing since then, while CPI has continued to climb above the Fed's 2% target.
Although if your definition of inflation is 'a decline in the value of the dollar', rather than just 'a rise in relative prices', inflation's been *really* bad--the dollar has fallen from a 20-year high in January to a level not far off from the trough it hit in July 2023.
Partially as a result, interest rates--the real ones, set by the market and expressed in the yields from long-dated treasury auctions--have stayed elevated. On Monday the 30-year treasury yield was at 4.84--the only time it's been higher in the past few years was in October through November of 2023, at the peak of Biden era inflation. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30)
Industrial production has been alright, but manufacturing employment is also down from its 5-year peak in February 2023. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP)
We're outperforming other countries by most metrics, but that's been true since the end of COVID.
So, all-in-all, things are kind of 'meh'.
Good points. Uncertainty and volatility are at least two things markets don't like, and don't respond well to.
The point I apparently did not make concisely enough is if Trump's economic successes, and there have been some, are either ignored or spun negatively by much of the Legacy media, the benefits can be muted by the same media that tried to tell usJoe Biden has never been cognitively sharper.
Conversely, if Trump's economic cheerleading proves as failed as his opposition's attacks, the GOP will pay in 2026 and probably worse by 2028 assuming the economy has worsened.
Elections are the only political polls that matter. A lot can happen in a year; even more in 3 years.
Some are saying that the relatively flat labor growth hides the fact that close to 2 million native born Americans gained jobs and a similar number of foreign born lost jobs. January through July that is. They don't separate out foreign born citizens, residents, or illegal immigrants.
Many people might not be answering the door for the household survey (officially called the Current Population Survey CPS)
I ask suppliers, managers, immigrant subcontractors, etc every time I cross paths. Many do say things are "slow", also labor costs are decidedly up. I found the rates paid immigrant subs to be ungodly low. For something that pays $50 per unit labor and profit, companies are paying subs $10 and keeping the $40 while paying none of the workers comp, liability insurance, or payroll withholding. On the flip side unskilled labor with a real social security number working as an hourly employee starts at $23 to $25 an hour.
And the point being, I trust, is come on in the legal way, bring or earn a skill and get paid in a week what you probably couldnt earn in a month or more in your native land?
I hope so.
Why do you hope so?
I have appreciation for knowledgeable people who do good work, and are effectively small business people. My appreciation doesn't extend to making Americans more poor. My loyalty is to my fellow citizens. The earnings differential is actually much greater as many people come from places that pay far below Mexico City wages. I speak enough Spanish to get along, and have lived in countries similar enough to Central America such that I'm comfortable with foreign workers, my objection isn't to them, it's to our system that exploits them and American workers both.
The company who bought out all the local legit companies, and is paying rock bottom subcontractor prices is not contributing to our society except to offer services at a lower price, and they are never there for a repair. We've lost many of the alternative routes for people to earn a middle class life.
Supply and demand are strong in the labor market. Bringing millions of workers has pushed wages down for decades. It's neoliberalism.
There is opportunity here, if only Democrats had a program other than Resistance
What does it mean to believe that the economy is "bad?"
https://savemycent.com/american-spending-habits-statistics/
Look at these data. The economy is fine. People are saving money--not, in general, living paycheck to paycheck. The bottom 20% of earners get $64K in government benefits, so the number of poor has decreased massively in our lifetime.
Food prices are cheaper than they were 75 years ago.
I just don't understand what people mean when they say the economy is bad. Our parents lived through a really bad economy (the depression). Compared with that, everybody in our country is a rich person. That wasn't that long ago.
One needs to keep in mind that in survey research a HUGE contributing factor is Social Desirability. People answer questions in a socially desirable fashion, which is why you see the huge Republican/Democratic splits. This doesn't mean they REALLY feel the way the question asks......they are, instead, answering a different question (i.e., what SHOULD I say?).
If all of these surveyed folks would have to explain their answers, then one would see how probably the data don't show what it looks like the data shows.
This economy can't be blamed on either Trump or Biden. Yes they were both President, and yes things have generally soured, but this thing didn't happen overnight. When the economy was "good" it was still bad for a large swath of the population. Wages began flat lining back in 72 or so, and as productivity grew, wages for most people didn't. This economy began fifty years ago. Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, plenty of blame to go around, the question is will things get fixed.
Some have done well, the professional managerial class has seen steady income gains, to cover their guilt they point fingers at the billionaires, or the working class.
Again, we see big partisan differences here, with more than 70 percent of Democrats and half of independents expecting higher inflation in the next six months compared to around 40 percent of Republicans who expect inflation to be lower.
Are we to assume, you didn't say, that 50% of independents are not expecting inflation to be worse?
The left and right have different definitions of better off. To compare the two is irrelevant. What matters are indepedants and the disaffected minority Dems that left the party. That last group is the one that matters for opinions on the economy and whether or not they are better off. They made that obvious when they walked.
Democrats and others had 4 yeas to rate the biden administration. Trump has only had 200+ days. The time difference makes the question useless.
I have become more skeptical of polls as we see them everyday. What I trust are the comments. Especially on this site where there are many from the right and independents as opposed to those from the left we would find on other right leaning sites.
In other words, your content is alright, your comment section needs more comments, but is very educational.
Don't stop please.
The economy is a classic risk-reward scenario for Trump and the Republicans. I think he over-promised, like he always has done, but if things work out it will be a home run or at least a line-drive double or triple to center-right field. The Dems have been far, far, FAR too pessimistic about tariffs. If I were forced to place a bet on how it will go, I'd bet on Trump. Not a sure thing, but I think the wind is at his back. I think the burst of inflation under Biden did a whole lot of damage.
I am firmly an economic determinist when it comes to presidential politics. The elections since WWII show it. We won't know who'll win in '28 until July of that year when the household survey of unemployment is released. By then, there will be an 80-year track record of its predictive value, with only one clear exception and a second instance of a miss because of a statistical anomaly.
In essence: The November result will be determined by the spring economy. All the rest is yammering, including my own. If the June '28 unemployment rate isn't lower than the March '28 unemployment rate, the Democratic candidate will almost certainly beat Vance.
AI is a dark cloud on the horizon, and I think a lot of people have anxiety about it eliminating employment opportunities - especially older Americans who worry about themselves and their kids.