Newsom may be the best candidate for the Democrats in 2028, but not because he is in any way truly moderate. He is a standard issue California progressive, hardcore left-wing and woke on every issue of consequence. If he is elected, he will govern to the Left of what Biden did.
Newsom's greatest assets are his good looks and not having an automatically snarling personality toward anyone who disagrees with him. He has been willing to engage in cordial debates with political opponents who are well-known: Charlie Kirk, Ron DeSantis, et al. He has a moderate public personality but he is not in the least moderate on public policy issues.
If Gavin Newsom could snap his fingers and accomplish for the US, overnight, what the Boy Wonder Governor has accomplished for CA, the day after the his election, Americans would awaken to a nation where another 40 million people would require Medicaid, because like 40% of Californians, 40% of Americans would be too poor, to otherwise afford healthcare.
Overnight, 34 million more Americans would cease being homeowners and become renters, because the CA homeownership rate is 10% below the national average.
CA is home to roughly 25%+ of all the US homeless, with 190K people residing outdoors permanently, like livestock, but CA only comprises 12% of the US population. If Newsom inflicted his CA homeless rate on the entire nation, the number of US homeless would soar from 780K people to more than 1.5 million, producing more than 3/4ths of a a million, new American homeless.
At a nearly 18% official poverty rate, if the US endured CA's poverty rate, the US poverty rate would soar by nearly 50%. Tens of millions of newly impoverished Americans would appear overnight.
Am far from a mathematician, and those with far greater skill will produce far more exact numbers, but the above is but the tiny tip of the economic iceberg that awaits America, should we be so unwise as to elect Gavin Newsom. A Newsom Presidency would make Biden's term look like a disappointing vacation, by comparison.
Joel Kotkin is a Trump loathing, liberal Democrat CA college professor, who for decades has been the Godfather of CA statistics. Once one of the state's biggest cheerleaders, both politically and economically, Kotkin has documented CA's decline, especially under Newsom, in astonishing numerical detail.
Kotkin's writings appear in many publications like Newsweek, Unherd and Spiked, but he makes all of them available for free at his website (https://joelkotkin.com/). There are generally 2 new writings a week. Every voter needs to read them, to understand the magnitude of the economic tsunami that would befall the US, with Newsom in the WH. Given the chance, Gavin will do for the entire US, what he has done for CA. That should terrify every American.
The problem is, while there may still be moderate Democratic voters in America, there aren't any "moderate" Democrats to vote for. They are all in a reality TV show trying to outperform each other...their lack of conviction and authenticity is obvious
I hope so, but if the economy is still stagnant in 3 years, the Democrats are going to have 4% more votes than they did in 2024. That would turn 48% to 52%.
But Newsome is a staggeringly weak candidate. He's overseen the ruination of our most economically vibrant state. Now California is the closest thing America has to a sci-fi dystopia with white liberals literally living in the clouds while drugs, crime and homelessness overwhelm the brown-skinned masses.
During every election cycle, contenders take turns having a moment as the frontrunner. I remember this as far back as a kid in 1980, when Newsweek ran a cover story called Bush Breaks Out of the Pack.
Right now may be Newsom’s turn and nothing else.
I certainly hope so: the man supports free Medi-Cal for illegal immigrants, and is 100% behind woke gender and race ideology. The state has poured money into homelessness programs that seem almost designed with a goal of paying salaries to people who keep other people homeless. Something about freedom of choice, I think.
He knows he’s wrong, and even tried to admit that males don’t belong in women’s sports. He backed down the moment the pushback started. So he’s a coward, too.
The state is broke. Our schools are horrible. Just one example: UCSD rejects 75% of applicants, yet has to run a math class that teaches elementary-level math. And 18% of its incoming students haven’t even mastered Algebra 1. Many even failed questions set at a first- or second-grade level!*
In 2016, Clinton was the only candidate less electable than Donald Trump. Then they forced Harris on us, and she was even less electable than Clinton. Newsom could fare even worse than Harris.
Newsom is peaking too early. He could wear out by 2028 primary season. Watch the 1988 anti-Dukakis ads. Change California for Massachusetts. An outsider with minimal political baggage and a hugely bank account could make the move as an alternative to the party establishment.
Much as I dislike the idea, the analysis is spot-on. The modern Democratic Party is juggling a tent full of crazy that's simultaneously angry, terrified, and in denial. Newsom allows them to revel in their Resistance, pretending it's compelling to anybody else, kicking the can down the road instead of addressing any of the obvious problems with the direction and depth of their coalition.
Even if by a "miracle" they can thread the needle of depressed turnout and a stagnant economy in 2028, they'll still wake up at the beginning of the next decade with a much less favorable electoral map (as a direct result of their poor governance) and no way of possibly pulling the trick off again. At some point they're going to have to just take their medicine.
It's a long long time until the pre primaries of Jan 28. At that time there might well be an entirely different political landscape. It's hard to predict.
Newsome would be a great candidate from a Democratic perspective, he's very good on camera, comes across as a totally reasonable fellow for a California air head. Personally I'd rather Vance.
Assuming you are right (it’s early but you make a good case) — is Newsom a transformative candidate who can quell the clamoring demands and herd the cats? Or is he just another compromise candidate — just enough progressive, just enough liberal, a little bit of country and a little bit of rock and roll?
If the former, he may do well. If the latter, that often falls flat I think.
We could very well be in the minority, but this statement does not represent us;
"the only thing that matters is that he’s willing to “fight” Trump and Vance. Or as he quipped to Politico about the Democratic Party’s factional divide, “I want it to be the Manchin to Mamdani party.”
We are 50-year Democratic voters who switched to Trump in the last election, hoping that our little bitty "sending of a message" to progressives gets through.
Harris was a progressive. She said different things during the election, but never disavowed ANY progressive stance, and has a video during her election where she still is maintaining "defund the police.'
We won't vote for anyone who is a progressive. And we won't fight for anyone who will "fight" Trump. Fighting is losing. And we won't vote for anyone who includes in the "big tent" an antisemitic anti-police socialist.
Maybe we're alone, and our views can be ignored. You have to decide.
I don't know. I am disinclined to favor anyone from California or Massachusetts. Most of the country just doesn't think those states are part of the United States. I like Beshear, Roy Cooper and Shapiro but I agree it will be hard for any of them to win enough votes in primaries.
Nuisance considers himself a 'Manchin'? He doesn't even come close. there are many dems here in CA that wanted to keep him as governor but don't want him as el presidenti.
Newsom may be the best candidate for the Democrats in 2028, but not because he is in any way truly moderate. He is a standard issue California progressive, hardcore left-wing and woke on every issue of consequence. If he is elected, he will govern to the Left of what Biden did.
Newsom's greatest assets are his good looks and not having an automatically snarling personality toward anyone who disagrees with him. He has been willing to engage in cordial debates with political opponents who are well-known: Charlie Kirk, Ron DeSantis, et al. He has a moderate public personality but he is not in the least moderate on public policy issues.
If Gavin Newsom could snap his fingers and accomplish for the US, overnight, what the Boy Wonder Governor has accomplished for CA, the day after the his election, Americans would awaken to a nation where another 40 million people would require Medicaid, because like 40% of Californians, 40% of Americans would be too poor, to otherwise afford healthcare.
Overnight, 34 million more Americans would cease being homeowners and become renters, because the CA homeownership rate is 10% below the national average.
CA is home to roughly 25%+ of all the US homeless, with 190K people residing outdoors permanently, like livestock, but CA only comprises 12% of the US population. If Newsom inflicted his CA homeless rate on the entire nation, the number of US homeless would soar from 780K people to more than 1.5 million, producing more than 3/4ths of a a million, new American homeless.
At a nearly 18% official poverty rate, if the US endured CA's poverty rate, the US poverty rate would soar by nearly 50%. Tens of millions of newly impoverished Americans would appear overnight.
Am far from a mathematician, and those with far greater skill will produce far more exact numbers, but the above is but the tiny tip of the economic iceberg that awaits America, should we be so unwise as to elect Gavin Newsom. A Newsom Presidency would make Biden's term look like a disappointing vacation, by comparison.
Joel Kotkin is a Trump loathing, liberal Democrat CA college professor, who for decades has been the Godfather of CA statistics. Once one of the state's biggest cheerleaders, both politically and economically, Kotkin has documented CA's decline, especially under Newsom, in astonishing numerical detail.
Kotkin's writings appear in many publications like Newsweek, Unherd and Spiked, but he makes all of them available for free at his website (https://joelkotkin.com/). There are generally 2 new writings a week. Every voter needs to read them, to understand the magnitude of the economic tsunami that would befall the US, with Newsom in the WH. Given the chance, Gavin will do for the entire US, what he has done for CA. That should terrify every American.
The problem is, while there may still be moderate Democratic voters in America, there aren't any "moderate" Democrats to vote for. They are all in a reality TV show trying to outperform each other...their lack of conviction and authenticity is obvious
J D Vance is the next president of the U S
! Outside chance is Rubio ! Cruz : nope!
!
I hope so, but if the economy is still stagnant in 3 years, the Democrats are going to have 4% more votes than they did in 2024. That would turn 48% to 52%.
But Newsome is a staggeringly weak candidate. He's overseen the ruination of our most economically vibrant state. Now California is the closest thing America has to a sci-fi dystopia with white liberals literally living in the clouds while drugs, crime and homelessness overwhelm the brown-skinned masses.
ummm ... I'm part of the California masses and I'm not brown-skinned. Be careful of your stereo types.
During every election cycle, contenders take turns having a moment as the frontrunner. I remember this as far back as a kid in 1980, when Newsweek ran a cover story called Bush Breaks Out of the Pack.
Right now may be Newsom’s turn and nothing else.
I certainly hope so: the man supports free Medi-Cal for illegal immigrants, and is 100% behind woke gender and race ideology. The state has poured money into homelessness programs that seem almost designed with a goal of paying salaries to people who keep other people homeless. Something about freedom of choice, I think.
He knows he’s wrong, and even tried to admit that males don’t belong in women’s sports. He backed down the moment the pushback started. So he’s a coward, too.
The state is broke. Our schools are horrible. Just one example: UCSD rejects 75% of applicants, yet has to run a math class that teaches elementary-level math. And 18% of its incoming students haven’t even mastered Algebra 1. Many even failed questions set at a first- or second-grade level!*
In 2016, Clinton was the only candidate less electable than Donald Trump. Then they forced Harris on us, and she was even less electable than Clinton. Newsom could fare even worse than Harris.
*https://x.com/chrisbrunet/status/1988291737010532575
https://www.newsweek.com/students-ucsd-without-8th-grade-math-skills-skyrockets-11030373
None of the above was most likely excluded because he/she would have made at least a respectable showing.
Newsom is peaking too early. He could wear out by 2028 primary season. Watch the 1988 anti-Dukakis ads. Change California for Massachusetts. An outsider with minimal political baggage and a hugely bank account could make the move as an alternative to the party establishment.
Much as I dislike the idea, the analysis is spot-on. The modern Democratic Party is juggling a tent full of crazy that's simultaneously angry, terrified, and in denial. Newsom allows them to revel in their Resistance, pretending it's compelling to anybody else, kicking the can down the road instead of addressing any of the obvious problems with the direction and depth of their coalition.
Even if by a "miracle" they can thread the needle of depressed turnout and a stagnant economy in 2028, they'll still wake up at the beginning of the next decade with a much less favorable electoral map (as a direct result of their poor governance) and no way of possibly pulling the trick off again. At some point they're going to have to just take their medicine.
It's a long long time until the pre primaries of Jan 28. At that time there might well be an entirely different political landscape. It's hard to predict.
Newsome would be a great candidate from a Democratic perspective, he's very good on camera, comes across as a totally reasonable fellow for a California air head. Personally I'd rather Vance.
Assuming you are right (it’s early but you make a good case) — is Newsom a transformative candidate who can quell the clamoring demands and herd the cats? Or is he just another compromise candidate — just enough progressive, just enough liberal, a little bit of country and a little bit of rock and roll?
If the former, he may do well. If the latter, that often falls flat I think.
We could very well be in the minority, but this statement does not represent us;
"the only thing that matters is that he’s willing to “fight” Trump and Vance. Or as he quipped to Politico about the Democratic Party’s factional divide, “I want it to be the Manchin to Mamdani party.”
We are 50-year Democratic voters who switched to Trump in the last election, hoping that our little bitty "sending of a message" to progressives gets through.
Harris was a progressive. She said different things during the election, but never disavowed ANY progressive stance, and has a video during her election where she still is maintaining "defund the police.'
We won't vote for anyone who is a progressive. And we won't fight for anyone who will "fight" Trump. Fighting is losing. And we won't vote for anyone who includes in the "big tent" an antisemitic anti-police socialist.
Maybe we're alone, and our views can be ignored. You have to decide.
(Good article, John)
I agree with your logic as a matter of avoiding outright fracture of the Democratic Party.
But what a loathsome , vacuous medicrity to actually lead America.
And what he cannot escape is that Democratic governance wherever it occurs is dysfunctional.
Mamdani will soon be another example.
Oh, great --- slick willie as president
I don't know. I am disinclined to favor anyone from California or Massachusetts. Most of the country just doesn't think those states are part of the United States. I like Beshear, Roy Cooper and Shapiro but I agree it will be hard for any of them to win enough votes in primaries.
Nuisance considers himself a 'Manchin'? He doesn't even come close. there are many dems here in CA that wanted to keep him as governor but don't want him as el presidenti.
He knows, he just doesn't care