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Hispanic Voters on the Eve of the 2022 Election
Hispanic Voters Are Normie Voters and Normie Voters Aren’t Happy
In 2020, the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points relative to 2016. On the eve of the 2022 election, that advantage is set to decline substantially once again.
This is obviously bad for the Democrats’ immediate electoral prospects. But it also cuts the ground out from under their leading electoral theory of the case: that the “rising American electorate”, with a starring role for the burgeoning ranks of minority voters, will deliver them victories in the future. It is overwhelmingly Hispanics who are driving the increase in the nonwhite population and if they continue moving toward the GOP—as they are and in a big way—the whole theory falls apart.
It is becoming clearer and clearer that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced a litany of liberal causes around race and other issues that are dear to the hearts of Democratic activists. This was a flawed assumption. In reality, Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly an upwardly mobile, patriotic population with practical and down to earth concerns focused on jobs, the economy, health care, effective schools and public safety.
In short, they are normie voters. And like other normie voters, if they feel Democrats are falling short on the things normie voters care about, they are more than willing to punish the party they hold responsible.
Consider the evidence:
1. The AEI demographics tracker, which averages poll subgroup results, finds the Democratic Congressional margin among Hispanic voters consistently 7-9 points below its 2020 level and 17-19 points below its 2018 level.
2. Some very recent high quality polls have the Democratic margin in single digits. The NPR/Marist poll found the Democrats only leading by a single point among Hispanic voters. And the Quinnipiac poll has Democrats actually losing the House vote by 4 points and the Senate vote by a point among these voters.
3. Inflation and the economy are the top issues for Hispanic voters, even more so than among voters as a whole. Nothing else even comes close.
4. In the new CNN/SSRS poll, 78 percent of Hispanic voters say the economy is currently in a recession and 67 percent say they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation.
5. In the same poll, just 35 percent of Hispanic voters say President Biden has had the right priorities, compared to 65 percent who say “he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems.”
6. In the Quinnipiac poll, 62 percent of Latinos disapprove of Biden’s handing of the economy while just 31 percent approve, for a net rating of -31.
7. In the same poll, an amazingly low 23 percent of Hispanics express approval of Biden’s handling of the situation at the border, compared to 62 percent who disapprove (-39 net rating).
8. In the NPR/Marist poll, Hispanics prefer the Republican party over the Democratic party on the issue of controlling inflation by 17 points.
9. In the same poll, Latinos prefer Republicans over Democrats by 20 points on dealing with crime and, surprisingly, by 6 points on dealing with immigration.
10. Even more shocking, the NPR poll finds Hispanics giving Donald Trump a higher favorability rating than Joe Biden! Just 37 percent say they are favorable to Biden compared to 41 percent for Trump.
As the Democrats sift through the wreckage of what seems likely to be a very poor election for them, they may want to cast around for a new theory of the case on how to grow their coalition. It should start by discarding the notion that Hispanics can be usefully thought of as people of color. They are instead normie voters through and through. That is the beginning of wisdom—and future electoral success.