Nikki Haley’s Political Skills Hit the Reality of the GOP’s Working-Class Electorate
Nikki Haley’s Political Skills Hit the Reality of the GOP’s Working-Class Electorate
Her political path is resembling Marco Rubio’s 2016 run—strong with suburbanites, limited appeal to populists, and running into a Chris Christie roadblock.
One of the strengths of Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign is that she’s consolidated support with the Trump-skeptical, college-educated wing of the Republican Party. But that very dynamic remains her biggest obstacle in broadening her support among the larger, increasingly blue-collar GOP electorate.
Haley’s path to a shot at giving former president Trump a credible one-on-one challenge requires almost every break to go her way. She will need to beat expectations with a second-place finish in Iowa by rallying suburbanites to her side, capitalize on New Hampshire’s open primary to beat Trump by winning big with moderates and independents, and then translate that momentum into a victory in her home state of South Carolina.
She’ll probably need some luck to accomplish that best-case scenario: It would take former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who’s been splitting some of the anti-Trump vote that would otherwise go her way, to drop or flame out. And a second-place Haley finish would require Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to falter in the home stretch, despite the ample resources he has poured into Iowa, his most-important state.
For a candidate who’s gone to great lengths to avoid challenging Trump directly, her voting base is heavily dependent on Republicans who (at least) want to move past Trump and her coalition has begun to include many outright anti-Trump voters as well. But polls show those sentiments remain a distinctly minority faction within the Republican Party, making up about one-third of the GOP electorate.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign serves as a useful guidepost to both Haley’s opportunities and limitations. The then-South Carolina governor endorsed Rubio in 2016, was a key surrogate for his campaign, and is offering a similar traditionally conservative “new generational” message for the GOP electorate.
Rubio ended up beating expectations with a competitive third-place finish in Iowa (winning 23 percent of the caucus vote), but shed support to other like-minded candidates (namely, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich) in New Hampshire and then badly lost in his home state of Florida. He performed best in the affluent suburbs in the early states, with notable wins in Iowa’s Polk and Dallas Counties (the Des Moines metro area) and Charleston County in South Carolina. His campaign ended with a distant second-place finish to Trump in his home state of Florida.
On one hand, the Republican Party has become markedly more populist over the last eight years. Trump benefited from a divided establishment, with Kasich, Christie and former Florida governor Jeb Bush all dividing up the conventionally conservative vote and thereby boosting Trump’s chances.
On the other hand, Haley is one of the only conventional conservative candidates left standing, which gives her the opportunity to leverage her factional support to greater effect. Her home state’s primary comes right after New Hampshire, giving her the opportunity for a one-two punch of states uniquely favorable to her brand of politics. Add the timing of a possible Trump trial before Super Tuesday, and she could benefit from a “perfect storm” in a way Rubio never did.
Ironically, one of the only obstacles in her way is Christie, who could end up playing a similar role splintering Haley’s support in New Hampshire as he did in prosecuting the case against Rubio at a famous 2016 primary debate. Christie is the only candidate aggressively making the case against Trump, but if he remains in the race (he’s already cut a few new ads indicating he’s in the race to stay), he’ll likely guarantee a Trump victory in the former president’s weakest state. And he’s already slamming Haley for clumsily omitting slavery as the main cause of the Civil War at a New Hampshire town hall.
Focus on the big picture, though, and it’s clear how dramatically the Republican Party has changed during the Trump era—from a party whose base included many populous and prosperous suburbs and exurbs to one that relies heavily on small towns and blue-collar workers. In 2016, Trump needed the establishment to fight amongst itself while ignoring the elephant in the room. In 2024, what’s left of the traditional Republican establishment is still fighting amongst itself while Trump dominates the field. (Put another way, the new establishment is now Trump and his movement.)
Consider these latest data points: A new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll found only 31 percent of Republicans believe President Biden’s win was legitimate, just 20 percent said the Justice Department’s cases against Trump are an attempt to hold him legally accountable, and only 14 percent believe Trump was responsible for the January 6 riot on the U.S. Capitol—all markedly down from the pollster’s previous survey in 2021.
The evolution of the GOP is apparent simply by comparing recent head-spinning headlines to a rock-ribbed conservative position two decades ago: A majority of House Republican lawmakers now oppose aid to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s aggression. Many Republicans cheered on the United Auto Workers during their protracted strike against American domestic automakers. Reining in government spending and excess regulations no longer appears to be the lingua franca of the conservative movement—though tax cuts remain on the agenda.
Haley’s unlikely path to the nomination, then, relies on her solidifying her own base and getting a great deal of outside help—most likely from Trump and his myriad legal troubles that could potentially lead to a conviction before Election Day. She’s got lots of political talent, which has helped her rocket past the rest of the field. But Haley is most likely to hit a ceiling even if she gets a vaunted one-on-one matchup against Trump.
Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) is the Editor in Chief of Jewish Insider and a Fox News Radio political analyst.