Good observation on the number of Senators ditching the Senate. Long ago---perhaps 15 years ago---the House ceased to be a real institution because it quit passing budgets, which was and remains its #1 Constitutional function. Then Pelosi's idiotic two impeachments made the House further irrelevant. The Senate has moved increasingly slowly due to Mitch McConnell's Trump hate, making IT irrelevant.
Meanwhile, voters ARE speaking, and a lot of people, including this column, just don't want to hear it. It's called voter registrations. Last week, IA, NJ, and NM all (again) moved further to the GOP, the first two by a net 1500 or so, NM by 738, but it's a much smaller state. Much more important, beginning around mid 2024, we have 44 weeks x 11 states where we have tracked voter registration changes (AZ, FL, IA, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, PA, and CA---I don't bother with OH because it is so extraordinarily red) and of these 484 observations, only ONE TIME (PA for a week) have the Ds out-registered Rs. Now, it doesn't matter if this is due to voter roll purges (declines), both parties gaining, or a combo. The Rs in 483 weeks in 11 states have seen NET REGISTRATION GAINS.
This puts the lie to most Hoax Polling that Trump is not liked. The issue for Rs is to "be" Trump. But it also shows that universally Ds are intensely DISLIKED, so much so that even in D heavy states such as NY, CA and NM they cannot manage to out-register Rs. Thank God no Democrat analysists are looking at this.
Combined, from 2000-2024, R+D voter registration increased by 15%; Independent registration increased by *75%*. (so Independents grew by **500%** more than either Ds or Rs)
Don't kid yourself, good fellow--nobody likes the Reps. And nobody likes the Dems. Which means most of the electorate is de facto up for grabs for both parties.
"Combined, from 2000-2024, R+D voter registration increased by 15%; Independent registration increased by *75%*. (so Independents grew by **500%** more than either Ds or Rs)."
By all means, Dem should not give up on Texas. Drain the coffers, and give it another go. Some estimates claim, all in, Dems spent nearly a half billion dollars to lose to Ted Cruz by nearly 10 points, in 2024. Dems were sure a former professional football player was their ticket to finally slay Cruz. In the end, the loss was not even close.
Dems were closer in a prior election, when faux Hispanic and nepo baby Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke lost by 3 points and change. Beto lost for the now seemingly bargain price, of nearly $80 million bucks. Now rumors are swirling thru Texas, O'Rourke will run yet again in 2026. His 3 or 4 previous, expensive losses, evidently water under the bridge for the spoiled man-child and his supporters willing to burn, even more donations.
Dems might want to spend some time at the Texas border, before flushing hundreds millions more. Dems purposefully dissolved the border, and turned the area into a quasi war zone. Dems tossed the lives of millions of Texans into a chaotic mess, in an attempt to turn Texas Blue, so Dems could, permanently, hold the White House. Instead a border district, solidly Blue for more than a century, turned bright Red and Texas just became the largest US state to enact school choice. Dems can keep drilling, but as we say in Texas, sometimes the well, really is dry.
I would add Joni Ernst to the vulnerable list - " Farmers need trade, not aid". - Sen. Ernst -2018. Ohio, also, is far from a slam dunk for Republicans. Who is their Senator? The price for soybeans and corn are down 40%. Tariffs will not help these states.
Pretty funny when people try to blow off 483 out of 484 observations that go one way with a single off month that goes another . . . barely. But go right ahead,
According to the U.S Census Bureau 73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote and 65.3% (or 154 million people) voted.
63.7% of men voted, compared to 66.9% of women.
82.5% of those with an advanced degree voted,
77.2% of bachelor degree holders voted
52.5% of high school graduates voted
39.6% of people voted in person on Election Day, 30.7% voted in person before Election Day, and 29.0% voted by mail.
Good observation on the number of Senators ditching the Senate. Long ago---perhaps 15 years ago---the House ceased to be a real institution because it quit passing budgets, which was and remains its #1 Constitutional function. Then Pelosi's idiotic two impeachments made the House further irrelevant. The Senate has moved increasingly slowly due to Mitch McConnell's Trump hate, making IT irrelevant.
Meanwhile, voters ARE speaking, and a lot of people, including this column, just don't want to hear it. It's called voter registrations. Last week, IA, NJ, and NM all (again) moved further to the GOP, the first two by a net 1500 or so, NM by 738, but it's a much smaller state. Much more important, beginning around mid 2024, we have 44 weeks x 11 states where we have tracked voter registration changes (AZ, FL, IA, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, PA, and CA---I don't bother with OH because it is so extraordinarily red) and of these 484 observations, only ONE TIME (PA for a week) have the Ds out-registered Rs. Now, it doesn't matter if this is due to voter roll purges (declines), both parties gaining, or a combo. The Rs in 483 weeks in 11 states have seen NET REGISTRATION GAINS.
This puts the lie to most Hoax Polling that Trump is not liked. The issue for Rs is to "be" Trump. But it also shows that universally Ds are intensely DISLIKED, so much so that even in D heavy states such as NY, CA and NM they cannot manage to out-register Rs. Thank God no Democrat analysists are looking at this.
Third party registrations dwarf both Dem and Rep registrations.
The pattern in Pennsylvania matches the pattern everywhere else: https://www.fandmpoll.org/did-trump-reverse-the-tide-or-ride-it-voter-registration-in-pennsylvania-2/
Combined, from 2000-2024, R+D voter registration increased by 15%; Independent registration increased by *75%*. (so Independents grew by **500%** more than either Ds or Rs)
Don't kid yourself, good fellow--nobody likes the Reps. And nobody likes the Dems. Which means most of the electorate is de facto up for grabs for both parties.
"Combined, from 2000-2024, R+D voter registration increased by 15%; Independent registration increased by *75%*. (so Independents grew by **500%** more than either Ds or Rs)."
Very interesting. What are the actual numbers?
Win or lose, it doesn't matter if Democrats don't stand for something and I don't mean stand against someone.
Texas is probably out of reach for the Democrats. However, the oil patch does not like $50 per barrel oil. Less money to go around.
By all means, Dem should not give up on Texas. Drain the coffers, and give it another go. Some estimates claim, all in, Dems spent nearly a half billion dollars to lose to Ted Cruz by nearly 10 points, in 2024. Dems were sure a former professional football player was their ticket to finally slay Cruz. In the end, the loss was not even close.
Dems were closer in a prior election, when faux Hispanic and nepo baby Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke lost by 3 points and change. Beto lost for the now seemingly bargain price, of nearly $80 million bucks. Now rumors are swirling thru Texas, O'Rourke will run yet again in 2026. His 3 or 4 previous, expensive losses, evidently water under the bridge for the spoiled man-child and his supporters willing to burn, even more donations.
Dems might want to spend some time at the Texas border, before flushing hundreds millions more. Dems purposefully dissolved the border, and turned the area into a quasi war zone. Dems tossed the lives of millions of Texans into a chaotic mess, in an attempt to turn Texas Blue, so Dems could, permanently, hold the White House. Instead a border district, solidly Blue for more than a century, turned bright Red and Texas just became the largest US state to enact school choice. Dems can keep drilling, but as we say in Texas, sometimes the well, really is dry.
Ted Cruz might not even run for re-election in 2028. But Chuck Grassley has already announced his candidacy for 2028. Republicans need some new blood.
John Cornyn is retiring. Beto would seek his Texas Senate seat.
I read that Paxton was going to challenge him in a primary. Beto could beat Paxton.
I would add Joni Ernst to the vulnerable list - " Farmers need trade, not aid". - Sen. Ernst -2018. Ohio, also, is far from a slam dunk for Republicans. Who is their Senator? The price for soybeans and corn are down 40%. Tariffs will not help these states.
Pretty funny when people try to blow off 483 out of 484 observations that go one way with a single off month that goes another . . . barely. But go right ahead,
Be a chowderspooge.
According to the U.S Census Bureau 73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote and 65.3% (or 154 million people) voted.
63.7% of men voted, compared to 66.9% of women.
82.5% of those with an advanced degree voted,
77.2% of bachelor degree holders voted
52.5% of high school graduates voted
39.6% of people voted in person on Election Day, 30.7% voted in person before Election Day, and 29.0% voted by mail.
Nostalgia is always there but the focus of nostalgia is always changing.