State of Play: Biden’s Electoral College Paths Narrow
If the election were held today, President Joe Biden would probably lose to Donald Trump. The president’s campaign insists that as voters tune in to the contest Biden’s standing will improve or, perhaps more accurately, Trump’s will decline. But such a shift has not yet materialized. In fact the polls have remained remarkably stable throughout the spring: Trump narrowly leads nationwide with a more sizable advantage in swing-state surveys.
Other Democrats insist that these early polls mean little. But past presidential elections suggest that polling doesn’t actually become much more predictive between now and Election Day. The average June polling error is 3.2 points, compared with 2.9 in November. The “polls don’t mean anything” argument may have held water last summer, but we are now firmly in the “polls matter” window. And if the swing state polls are correct, Donald Trump is headed towards a sizable Electoral College victory.
Systematic polling error is possible—as is late-breaking momentum—but Joe Biden is undoubtedly in rough shape as we head into the summer.
Pundits are kinder to Biden than polling averages. The incumbent still holds a sizable cash-on-hand advantage and has built a formidable campaign operation, including dozens of field offices across the battlegrounds. Trump’s infrastructure remains comparatively sparse.
In Split Ticket’s most recent update, five key swing states remain tossups—a reflection of Biden’s non-polling advantages. Georgia, however, has moved into the “lean Republican” category as poll after poll shows Biden losing ground with the black voters crucial to his 2020 Peach State win. North Carolina, long a white whale for Democrats at the presidential level, has also moved to lean Republican.
Betting markets on individual state contests between Trump and Biden currently add up to the narrowest of Electoral College victories for Biden (although Trump is actually favored to win in the overall betting market on the election). The map below might well be Biden’s easiest path to victory. Trump’s polling lead in the Sunbelt—Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—is considerable. If Hispanic voters leap rightwards as polls suggest, a Biden victory in Arizona grows unlikely. Nevada, with its sizable share of working-class nonwhite voters, might also go red for the first time since 2004.
In the Midwest, however, Trump’s lead falls well within the margin of error. As the markets reflect, Biden has a much better shot to carry the “Blue Wall” trio of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But if all three go his way, Biden’s tally reaches only 269 votes—one short of the requisite 270. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District would then play kingmaker. A Trump win in Omaha would send the election to the House; a Biden victory hands him a second term.
With 165 days until November 5th, the polls, pundits, and markets point to different ends of a relatively narrow band of election outcomes. If the spring polls prove true, Donald Trump looks likely to return to the White House. But there remain plenty of paths for Biden—particularly through the Midwest.
 | A guest post by
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Why is Biden's trajectory a surprise to anyone? Americans have not experienced inflation of this magnitude since the 1970s. The WSJ recently calculated, since Biden walked into the WH, gas prices are up 50%, food is up 37%, not the 20% Dems admit, and electricity is up 30%. The increases have hit life necessities hardest. Food and fuel are not handbags, sofas or jeans. Families cannot make their old ones, last a little longer.
Meanwhile, the the top quintile of US families , are enjoying, unprecedented, appreciation on asset values. The bifurcated economy, has caused Dems to assume only the perception of the economy is the problem, not actual prices.
Add to the worst inflation, in a 1/2 century, 10 million unvetted migrants, overwhelming the same neighborhoods, hit hardest by inflation and Covid. The new arrivals are worsening the shortage of affordable housing, and sending rents soaring, to say nothing, of worsening crime. The migrants are also crushing, underperforming, schools. Literally, hundreds of thousands of new students , have been dropped into lower and middle earning neighborhoods. Many lack not only English skills, but any previous formal education.
To add insult to injury, just as there appears to be no limit on the number of migrants the US will accept, there is no limit on migrant spending, either. US families, told for years, their government is too tapped out to provide better schools, or safer streets , are watching new migrants bath in endless government handouts. The WSJ calculates NYC and Chicago spend more than $80K, a year, on each migrant, in their cities. The annual, US median household income, for entire families, is only $75K.
Nor is the situation, likely to improve anytime soon, for the bulk of Americans. Neither inflation, nor the migrants are going anywhere. The surprise should not be Trump is winning, but that he is not winning by far greater margins.
What is it with the Nates? We've got Nate Silver at 538, Nate Cohen at the NYT, and now Nate Moore of AEI. Is Nate a pseudonym given to all numbers crunchers?