The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

Americans lack confidence in the economy for good reasons. Telling them otherwise doesn’t work.

In some ways, you feel bad for Presidents Trump and Biden. Both presidents had to preside over a global pandemic, the subsequent economic crash, and the eventual reopening and rebuilding of the country—a series of events that could have gone completely haywire. Yet it did not. While many countries around the world came up short and are still lagging economically, America, relatively speaking, came out well in terms of rebounding growth, business activity, jobs, and wages. Of course, the U.S., like other nations, did end up with a sustained period of inflation that was both inevitable, given supply chain and manufacturing restrictions plus the Russian attack on Ukraine, and fueled by massive government spending under both presidents. But all that fiscal spending undoubtedly helped the U.S. economy get back on its feet in terms of output and jobs, especially compared to other nations that did not inject massive amounts of money into their economies.

Partisans will predictably defend their guy and bash the other one in terms of their economic policies and governance. Yet, in political terms, the results are similar: both Biden and now Trump have ended up in roughly the same place with Americans, receiving poor marks for their handling of the economy and inflation. Trump is currently 15 points underwater on his economic job approval (total approve – total disapprove) and 24 points underwater on inflation, according to the RCP average. In comparison, Biden ended his term 21 points underwater on the economy on average and 29 points on inflation.

Compounding problems for Trump, American economic confidence at the beginning of 2026 hit a 12-year low, as the Associated Press reported:

U.S. consumer confidence declined sharply in January, hitting the lowest level since 2014 as Americans grow increasingly concerned about their financial prospects.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index cratered 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, falling below even the lowest readings during the COVID-19 pandemic.

A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market tumbled 9.5 points to 65.1, well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. It’s the 12th consecutive month that reading has come in under 80.

Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation slid by 9.9 points to 113.7.

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist. “All five components of the index deteriorated, driving the overall index to its lowest level since May 2014—surpassing its COVID19 pandemic depths.”

In fairness to the Trump administration, it’s not as if the overall economic indicators are all that miserable today, even with his erratic tariff policies and often confusing public pronouncements. Growth is solid, employment is stable (for now), inflation is easing, and the stock market is rolling. So why is American economic confidence at its lowest point in more than a decade?

The answer lies in a mix of economic reality and human psychology. On the reality side, Americans are not at all pleased with the high cost of living, particularly for the “hard” goods and services in modern life, including housing, energy, health care, childcare, education, household goods, and things such as car payments, insurance, and maintenance. Even with decent wages and income and prospective tax cuts, working- and middle-class families do not feel particularly solid when they open their banking apps. A middle-class life that once seemed attainable and sustainable seems out of reach to many younger people and increasingly precarious for more established older Americans. Cheap televisions, ubiquitous phones, endless entertainment, and fast internet won’t make up for people’s inability to pay their health care premiums or save enough for a down payment on a home or retirement.

This leads us into the human psychology side. Rafts of economic indicators and rah-rah speeches from presidents and their allies will not persuade most Americans that the future looks sunny. Given profound distrust of politicians and government, these political acts may in fact signal to Americans the reverse—that our leaders are hiding something and it’s about to get worse. Throw in non-stop “doomscrolling” and partisan broadsides on social media along with constant media chatter about the potential collapse of both blue- and white-collar employment from AI, and you have the makings of a potent stew of worry, agitation, and fear among Americans.

Widespread economic uneasiness among voters is where things stand today. Workers are justifiably concerned about the financial “squeeze” they are feeling in terms of wages and incomes not keeping up with essential costs. They are right to be worried about losing their job or facing income reductions in the future—and the real possibility of not finding new work or adequate replacement income if they do lose employment. Concerns about the “K-shaped” recovery with the wealthy prospering more while everyone else falls behind are well founded. Young people’s frustrations about doing the right things in terms of education and skills training and still not being able to fully enter work and family life are understandable and reasonable.

The problem for our political class, including presidents and other leaders in both parties, is that they almost uniformly do not face any of these same economic pressures. Many of them are already rich and have nice houses; they receive guaranteed pay and benefits, including affordable health care and pensions; and they have opportunities to build wealth in the stock market and save additionally for retirement. In terms of their economic and class position in American life, they are nothing like the people they ostensibly represent.

So, politicians’ remarks about the economy doing well or affordability being a “fake narrative” or America being the strongest economy in the world often fall flat—and will continue to do so regardless of economic statistics and political bravado. “Bidenomics” was a flop, and Trump’s boasting about America being “great again” rings hollow to many voters.

As the parties gear up for another round of midterm fighting and candidate jostling ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries, the ideological faction or leader who figures out this economic reality first—and responds genuinely and empathetically to Americans’ psychological worries about their finances—will be well positioned for success, at least temporarily.