The Politics of Trump’s Iran Strike

Big partisan schism, independents are split, and a broad majority of Americans oppose further escalation.

The basic contours of public opinion in the immediate aftermath of President Trump’s decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites last Saturday are relatively clear, according to three polls conducted after the attack. Despite slightly different question wording employed in each poll, the patterns are the same across the surveys: Republicans are mostly united in support of the airstrikes, Democrats are mostly united against them, and independents are split on the matter.

Looking at data from YouGov, CNN/SSRS, and Reuters/Ipsos, roughly seven in ten or more Republicans approve of Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites, while a roughly equal proportion of Democrats disapprove. Republican support ranges from 68 to 82 percent, and Democratic opposition ranges from 70 to 88 percent across the three polls. In all three surveys, around half of independents oppose the decision, with the other half either in support of the airstrikes or unsure (with higher disapproval in the CNN/SSRS poll).

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In the weeks before the U.S. airstrikes, there was rampant speculation that President Trump’s MAGA base would splinter if he entered the conflict between Israel and Iran. These polls suggest that this was not a correct assumption, as the vast majority of GOP voters have rallied behind Trump’s decisive move on the nuclear sites.

At the same time, most Americans across party lines appear firm in their opinion that this should go no further. For example, the CNN/SSRS survey asked respondents, “Would you favor or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops in Iran?” Sixty-eight percent of Americans overall say they would oppose boots on the ground in Iran, with only nine percent supporting the idea and 23 percent unsure. Only 16 percent of Republicans say they would back U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, with less than ten percent of both Democrats and independents backing the idea. However, asked about continued airstrikes on Iran in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 62 percent of Republicans would support this type of future military engagement.

Looking at the bigger picture, most Americans, regardless of partisanship, express concerns about these airstrikes leading to a wider conflict and more U.S. involvement in Iran. Sixty-seven percent of Americans in the YouGov poll believe it is likely that the U.S. bombing “will lead to a wider war between the U.S. and Iran,” while 84 percent of Americans in the Reuters/Ipsos poll say they are “concerned about the conflict growing.” The public is also relatively aligned in believing that President Trump should be required to get congressional approval for any further military action in Iran. In the CNN/SSRS survey, for example, two-thirds of Americans overall say Trump should be required to get congressional approval for further actions, including around nine in ten Democrats, seven in ten independents, and four in ten Republicans.

Public opinion on matters related to war and military conflict tends to be fluid depending on how the situation unfolds over weeks and months. In the case of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, President Trump has the clear backing of his party upfront but faces questions from independents and staunch opposition from Democrats.

Any actions beyond this “one-off” attack on the nuclear sites will likely generate increased public opposition and concern about whether U.S. interests are actually being served in another Middle Eastern conflict.