TLP Weekend Edition (August 10-11, 2024)
What we're reading, watching, and listening to this weekend.
📖 “Can Kamala Harris Win Just Enough of the Working Class?” by Benjamin Hart. New York magazine interviews TLP’s Ruy Teixeira about class polarization in politics and why the Harris coalition is not the same as the Obama coalition, particularly in terms of replicating Obama’s successes with white working-class voters.
If you gain among group A and those gains balance out your losses among group B, then it’s a net benefit. The question is always “What is the net?” I’m just trying to point out how different the Obama coalition was, and how relatively high the support rates were among working-class voters in general, including both whites and non-whites—that Obama’s coalition was much less dependent on white college-educated voters. It was just a different look.
📖 “Yes, You Do Have to Tolerate the Intolerant,” by Yascha Mounk. In his excellent new Substack, Persuasion founder Yascha Mounk lays out a strong liberal case for genuine tolerance. Short version—Free speech is free speech. Period.
📖 “A Researcher Found That Voters Might Be Less Racist and Sexist Than We Think—But Journalists Weren’t Interested in the Story,” by Zaid Jilani. Jilani reviews a meta-analysis of research that found voters are more open to voting for non-white and female candidates than some people might assume. This would strike many as good news worth sharing—a sign of America's moral progress. However, the researchers behind the analysis found that it mostly fell on deaf ears. Journalist after journalist declined the opportunity to publish the results, with one even saying, “People aren’t interested in good news.” Jilani cites another study showing that during the past decade the news media has helped paint a picture of reality being worse than it actually is:
Research by Musa al-Gharbi and David Rozado found a massive increase in the use of what they called “prejudice-denoting words” in the media between 2010 and 2019. It should hardly be surprising that Americans think they live in a massively racist and sexist country if you can hardly open the newspaper without being bombarded with a story about how a lady in Central Park getting into a verbal altercation about dog walking is an indictment of all-pervasive American racism.
Of course, the media is largely responding to its own incentives: bad news gets clicks, so these outlets often suffer from negativity bias. It's up to people who are tired of the constant negativity to push back and force good news into the conversation.
⚽️ Olympic Women’s Soccer Gold Medal Match, from the Parc des Princes in Paris. The U.S. women compete for their fifth gold medal overall, and their first in 12 years, after Sophia Smith secured a U.S. victory in extra time against Germany in the semifinals. The U.S. women play Brazil, who won a 4-2 victory over Spain, in what should be an exciting conclusion to a great Olympic tournament. The U.S.A. leads the overall series against Brazil with 32W-5D-3L. Kickoff is 11AM ET.
📚 The Horse, by Willy Vlautin. An excellent new novel by Willy Vlautin explores the ups and mostly downs of country musician Al Ward. The 67-year old songwriter is at the end of his rope, living alone at an abandoned mining claim in NV trying to dry out once again, when along comes an old blind horse in need of serious assistance. Ward searches for redemption for himself and the old horse as he considers his hard living in the casinos, hotels, and dive bars of the West. A splendid story about human decency and bad choices that you can enjoy in one sitting. Vlautin’s other novels are also gems, like Don’t Skip Out on Me, a finalist for the PEN/Faulkner award.
Vlautin himself is an excellent musician and songwriter and is the founder of the bands Richmond Fontaine and The Delines. Check out RF’s excellent 2003 album “Post to Wire” as a companion to his new book.
Re the research by Zaid Jilani suggesting that voters aren’t as bigoted as commonly thought: insofar as that relates to the sizable MAGA bloc of the electorate, it’s possible to conclude that for many of those it’s not a feeling of prejudice (“racism”) or dislike towards Blacks - but rather Black Lives Matter.
"Free speech is free speech. Period." -- Name me one Democrat politician who agrees with this.