The largest, longterm, Dem problem is that while Trump has a 36 month expiration date, lousy Dem policy does not.
Moreover, at its' most base, Dem Immigration policy is based on states blatantly and actively ignoring long standing Federal Law.
Should a Dem President emerge victorious in 2028, what do Dems suppose Texas and FL will do when EVs are once again mandated, DEI is resurrected at both the state and federal level, and restrictions reappear on fossil fuel energy production?
Red States will look at DC and with a wink and a nod, promise to follow federal law just as judiciously as Blue States followed federal Immigration law, the last 4 years.
Dems are playing with fire. Declaring federal law optional, is how Republics end.
"...and the 2025 results were overwhelmingly positive for them."
I grow rather tired of people trying to make 2025 out as the harbinger of an unstoppable blue wave when two Democrats won governorship of two blue states.
It's not "most states" that show SHARP GOP gains in voter registration.
It's ALL states where we can track. Since mid 2024, of the 39 states that register by party at usually one report per month (1,170 observations) there have been fewer than 10 observations TOTAL where Ds had even a slight, one time lead. For ex., last year they grabbed NV back for a month by about 50 total voters---but the last few months? Rs back to +3000. How significant is that? Ds LOST NV to Trump with a +18,000 number in 2024, and barely won in 2016 with a +88,000 number.
There were 2-3 D monthly gains in PA during primary season in Philly, and one in NJ. That's it. That's the whole enchilada. So, anyone paying attention to trends here would see 1,160 months of R gains in EVERY. SINGLE. STATE.
Again, it's worthwhile to look at former "battleground" states which ain't. NC went from D+175,000 in 2020 to R+3,000 now. But among active voters? Rs are blowing the doors off, up in NC by over 103,000. That's a helluva shift. But the same thing in PA. Despite a couple of monthly setbacks, the Ds are down overall to just +171,000 (remember NC?) and among active voters Rs have a big lead---over 70,000. Again, compared to just 2016 when Ds had a mind-boggling lead of 1.1 MILLION and still lost the pres race, well, it doesn't take either Einstein or Confucius to figure this out this is a radically BAD trend for Ds.
In AZ, deep blue Pima Co. saw Ds lose ground to Rs in every single report. Now Pima, once D+9, is only D+7.3, while Maricopa (red) is exploding. Every county in AZ has moved further to the right with EVERY report in 2 years. Rs hold a 320,000 advantage as of last filing. We won't even talk about FL, which is never anymore mentioned as a "battleground" state: R+1.4 million, or a bigger advantage than PA ever had for Ds. In the last reporting period IA gained about .2% R; NH about 4% R. Yes, indies are definitely gaining too, and I described the "Trump Two Step" that occurs as Ds leave the party to vote for Trump but become Is. Next election, they take the next step to Rs. We saw this with Hispanics and last two elections with blacks. And, as I keep pointing out, even CA continues to show D erosion.
I have to again remind everyone that these numbers will continue to escalate for Ds through several forces: 1) Continued deportations. We are at 2.5 million. No one is asking the right question ("did you vote in an American election? How did you vote?") but I think we all know that upwards of 90% of those who voted cast their ballot for a D. Think of that: nationwide Ds lost 2.2 million voters nationally. 2) Voter roll purges: In PA alone, last week 3,600 more came off the rolls. When Ds are in the majority, those are disporportionately D losses. CA, as mentioned, was undergoing a court-imposed purge, but to my knowledge STILL hasn't purged LA County or Orange Co. That purge, when it comes, will not help Ds.
Then we have redistricting. Despite the feckless Rs in IN, the redistricting math is still going to favor Rs by 3-4 seats. Cook has Rs safe in 210 right now. So they start off 2026 at 214---but FL is sitll coming and it may add yet another seat. There is a possiblity NE also adds another R seat. But the big enchilada is coming this spring with the racial redistricting case. If they Supes rule as people think they will, against racial redistricting, you're looking already at AL adding 1-2 more seats. Overall the numbers were 13 seat changes, but some (no one yet knows how many) are already included in the prior redistricting. Regardless, at 216, Rs are just 2 away from a majority. If that occurs---that there are a couple more unredistricted seats out there, 2026 is already over and Rs will have 218 without WINNING A SINGLE "TOSSUP" SEAT--and you know that's not likely. Rs will likely split at worst 60/40.
The numbers re ruthless and relentless, have nothing to do with polls/schmolls, and are completely apart from a recovering economy. It things continue, the economy will be on fire by November. No, Ds won't be blown out---gerrymandering makes that impossible. But we could be looking at R 225 or so in the House, and a safe R senate.
At that point, if you think the soul searching that began after the Trump loss was angst-ridden, you ain't seen nuthin yet.
Speaking as a registered independent, I suspect independent *voters* do lean right but don’t want to be fired from their jobs. Politics is not a protected category. That concern is particularly powerful in blue states.
But registration trends have slowed down. The honeymoon is over and the economy doesn’t feel better yet. It may be accelerating but we’re still only going 30 mph.
I am very skeptical that, regardless of what polls say, Renee Good will help the Democrats. She’s not black and she wasn’t obviously murdered like Floyd. So maybe now that the left is once again feeling empowered enough to be crazy, the registration trends will resume.
Any upside Dems might have gotten from the chaos in Minnesota went out the window when they escalated from obstruction of justice to full blown rioting and stormed a church service.
As a genuine centrist independent myself, who has impartially served on juries and sometimes voted in favor of black defendants, I think that the killing of Good had far less mitigation than the killing of Floyd (as determined by a trial conducted in the atmosphere of a leftist lynch mob supported by prominent Democrat officials).
As the great Rush Limbaugh used to say, he could "read the stitches on a fastball." Well, this one ain't that fast. They are warning that Trump will get a "third term" whether he runs or not due to the permanence of his programs. But this is also an unspoken admission that J.D. Vance will beat any D. (Currently, I have Vance at 320, but if the candidate is the Amazing Zohran, as I suspect it will be, Vance would come in somewhere around 360 EVs and about 2.5% of the popular vote.
It would be a prima facie violation of the constitution's plain language, so I very strongly think it wouldn't fly. Unlike with other constitutional questions, there's no absolutely no ambiguity on that one.
>>"The numbers re ruthless and relentless, have nothing to do with polls/schmolls, and are completely apart from a recovering economy."<<
Delusions of motivated reasoning, my friend. The economy's everything--always has been, always will be. Ask the Republicans planning their 'permanent rule' circa 2008. And until Trump does something to strengthen the dollar, inflation isn't going anywhere, and interest rates aren't gonna come down fast enough to achieve broad-based growth. The devaluation has been the worst since the 70s. I haven't seen him even *hint* at doing so, but he has the tools and the opportunity, if he wants to use it. (ballrooms and demented tantrums about Greenland will not get it done)
Motivated reasoning appears to be on your end. Trump has been in office for almost exactly one year, and the 1Y for the S&P 500 is up 13%. The Russell 2000 is up 17%.
Your cherry-picking of economic data is not matching up with what the people who make money correctly aggregating all the data are concluding.
The stock market was hitting records under Biden, too. I thought he was an economic disaster?
If inflation and affordability is the focus here, a dollar devaluation is literally the exact *opposite* of the goal. Inflation can't decelerate if the currency is consistently losing value, and interest rates can't come down if inflation doesn't decelerate, unless you want more inflation. (see: Turkey)
Inflation had been on broad downward trend since March 2023, until Trump's weak-dollar policies slammed on the brakes. We've been oscillating sideways ever since, even as unemployment has risen. If you think people are going to approve of someone elected to lower costs, that then delivers stagflation, you're going to be disappointed.
Biden was a disaster because of 8% inflation. Predicted by staunch Democrat, economist and Obama advisor Larry Summers. That undermined real wages. Inflation is now 2%.
You’re making a different claim: that Trump’s policies are hurting economic projections. They aren’t.
You cited the stock market as the sign that the economy was doing well--Biden's record there is as good as Trump's. If you're saying it doesn't matter vis a vis a president's economic performance, why did you bring it up in Trump's case?
I'm not talking about projections, I'm talking about what's happened since January 2025--the CPI stopped declining in March 2024, bucking the previous downward trend that had started a year before, and then began oscillating sideways. It rose from May through August and still hasn't settled near the Fed's 2% mark. That's despite the fact that unemployment, which is supposed to be deflationary and negatively correlated with inflation, has gone up. So we are quite literally in stagflation--rising unemployment, sustained inflation.
Notably, the last time we had stagflation was in the 70s, and it was caused by (what a coincidence!) a huge dollar devaluation resulting from the end of Bretton Woods and the gold standard. Needless to say, such conditions do not make people happy--as Jimmy Carter had to find out.
1. You said Trump's economy is bad. That's empirically false.
2. I'm a critic of Biden, but because of inflation eroding real wages
3. Inflation is about 2.5% to 3% under Trump versus 8% with Biden
4. The dollar is down because of interest rate cuts, which we need to heat up the economy and induce real wage growth. That's not analogous at all the 70s.
5. Inflation is high because of one-off hit from tariffs. I know the left (and the neoliberal right) doesn't want the working class to be able to make a good living by working (the left because they want them on welfare, the neoliberal right because they want them working for peanuts)
6. Inflation is also high because we are starting to see real wage growth, which we need more of to erode Biden - and the left generally - bad policies.
And above all: never forget that liberal economics doesn't work. It doesn't work on theory. And it doesn't work in practice. That's why red states are growing faster than blue states, why California has been shedding businesses and people since turning blue, why nations like Poland are surpassing Western European nations like France, and why Europe is falling further and further behind the US in per-capital PPP-adjusted hourly GDP
DXY is broadly negatively correlated with CPI, and we know the mechanisms that explain why--among others (A.)making imports more expensive, (B.) allowing domestic companies to raise prices without sacrificing demand, (e.g., Japanese cars are $3000 more expensive, domestic manufacturers can now raise their prices $2000 and not sacrifice competitive price positioning) and, most crucially, (C.) because key commodities like oil, gold and other precious metals are priced in dollars.
You are looking at statewide numbers. Works for electoral votes, but you have not mapped them to congressional districts so I question the applicability to the midterms.
Predicting 28 when the results of 26 haven't even tallied is rather humorous. Some Dems say they will investigate every member of the Trump administration. Schumer states he will give back all the money that Trump took away and add more. And still no policies that pertain to everyday Americans with kitchen table issues.
The last impeachments by the Dems were jokes that many saw through as rigged and more political than ever. A waste of time. A Dem House that got nothing done. And we saw what happened to inflation when the biden administration spent money like water from spigot. Fact is, any reasonable Dem should be scared to death that the Dems will do as promised. Like the lost to Trump due to Dem's incompetence and hostility to every day Americans, could spell the end to the Democrat party. Dems might start an educational program in their ranks by starting with the word "govern".
Both parties are so unpopular that it really is anyone's game. Democrats have the edge in the short-run because Trump is a Democratic turnout machine, but they'll eventually have to govern well to win, (this is the key insight to be taken away from the 'abundance' approach) and long run any Dem who feels remotely complacent needs an old-fashioned bopping on the head with a newspaper, if anyone can find one. I am glad to see candidates like Peltola in the running. Now candidates like Talarico need to politically defenestrate the Crocketts of the world.
Talarico will win the Dem primary walking away. Either of my 2 dogs could easily beat Crockett in Texas. Talarico's problem comes in the General. Ironically Allred may had a real shot this time around, but was pushed out.
Talarico's anti Christian Nationalism lectures,( whatever that is) are likely to fall flat in a state where many people, both Rep and Dem, regularly attend Christian churches, or have family and friends who attend. Nor is Talerico's proclamation "Jesus is nonbinary " likely to excite many Texas Independents.
Talarico has been, historically, pro open borders. James now asserts his position has changed, since he recently became aware of what Texas border families endured under Biden.
That claim is so ridiculous, his nose must grow when discussing the subject. Every Texan knew 90 days into Biden's term about the quasi warfare at the border. The notion Talarico, sitting in Austin 5 hours way, was unaware of the border chaos for years, is laughable.
Talarico's only saving grace would be a Paxton primary win. Cornyn likely beats him by 5 points or more.
Fish Family Freedom! Sounds good to me. For people who get a significant amount of food from natural sources it's hard to describe the importance of that source and the distaste for anyone who threatens your food. For Alaskans salmon are a bigger source than moose, and both populations seem to be in decline. I hope Peltola does well.
She "holds positions on cultural issues that generally combine socially liberal views with a pragmatic, moderate approach tailored to the unique, often bipartisan political landscape of Alaska." Word salad meaning what?
They don't want to say she supports aerial gunning of wolves and paw trapping of bears, loves oil development, the church (whichever one you belong to), etc. That's the "unique bipartisan" etc. It's Alaska. Party doesn't matter as much as they are all mostly on the same page. Only problem is who she might caucus with.
I think the polls that comprise the RCP averages are significantly understating Trump's approval and overstating Democratic strength. I have followed them closely since late '23, and have never seen them as skewed as they are today. That said, it's hard to forecast mid-terms.
My gut says that '26 will turn on the economy, which I think is in better shape than the legacy media are willing to "report." I also think that the Rs would win it running away if Trump would a) introduce immigration reform to legalize people here before 2020, and b) set up a credible process to examine and mitigate mistakes made by ICE.
That's a significant political problem. I will admit that I don't know the details of Reagan's amnesty. If anyone with real pull were to threaten to take me and my I.Q. seriously enough to cause me to jump into the deep end of the pool, I bet I could quickly snatch the quarter off the bottom and come up with a compromise. But I have to agree with your implication that it selling it would be quite the task.
By the way, I don't think for a millisecond that this is simply a matter of the R base. I don't think the D "progressives" who have a hammerlock on the party have the slightest interest in a fix either. If this one gets solved, I strongly think it will get solved through the independent plurality attracting enough defectors from each side's stalwarts.
Any deal on immigration will require both some form of amnesty and increased restrictions/enforcement to prevent what the Democrats allowed under Biden from ever happening again.
Speaking personally I do have a fair amount of sympathy for the so called “dreamers” from 10 years ago.
The largest, longterm, Dem problem is that while Trump has a 36 month expiration date, lousy Dem policy does not.
Moreover, at its' most base, Dem Immigration policy is based on states blatantly and actively ignoring long standing Federal Law.
Should a Dem President emerge victorious in 2028, what do Dems suppose Texas and FL will do when EVs are once again mandated, DEI is resurrected at both the state and federal level, and restrictions reappear on fossil fuel energy production?
Red States will look at DC and with a wink and a nod, promise to follow federal law just as judiciously as Blue States followed federal Immigration law, the last 4 years.
Dems are playing with fire. Declaring federal law optional, is how Republics end.
"...and the 2025 results were overwhelmingly positive for them."
I grow rather tired of people trying to make 2025 out as the harbinger of an unstoppable blue wave when two Democrats won governorship of two blue states.
It's not "most states" that show SHARP GOP gains in voter registration.
It's ALL states where we can track. Since mid 2024, of the 39 states that register by party at usually one report per month (1,170 observations) there have been fewer than 10 observations TOTAL where Ds had even a slight, one time lead. For ex., last year they grabbed NV back for a month by about 50 total voters---but the last few months? Rs back to +3000. How significant is that? Ds LOST NV to Trump with a +18,000 number in 2024, and barely won in 2016 with a +88,000 number.
There were 2-3 D monthly gains in PA during primary season in Philly, and one in NJ. That's it. That's the whole enchilada. So, anyone paying attention to trends here would see 1,160 months of R gains in EVERY. SINGLE. STATE.
Again, it's worthwhile to look at former "battleground" states which ain't. NC went from D+175,000 in 2020 to R+3,000 now. But among active voters? Rs are blowing the doors off, up in NC by over 103,000. That's a helluva shift. But the same thing in PA. Despite a couple of monthly setbacks, the Ds are down overall to just +171,000 (remember NC?) and among active voters Rs have a big lead---over 70,000. Again, compared to just 2016 when Ds had a mind-boggling lead of 1.1 MILLION and still lost the pres race, well, it doesn't take either Einstein or Confucius to figure this out this is a radically BAD trend for Ds.
In AZ, deep blue Pima Co. saw Ds lose ground to Rs in every single report. Now Pima, once D+9, is only D+7.3, while Maricopa (red) is exploding. Every county in AZ has moved further to the right with EVERY report in 2 years. Rs hold a 320,000 advantage as of last filing. We won't even talk about FL, which is never anymore mentioned as a "battleground" state: R+1.4 million, or a bigger advantage than PA ever had for Ds. In the last reporting period IA gained about .2% R; NH about 4% R. Yes, indies are definitely gaining too, and I described the "Trump Two Step" that occurs as Ds leave the party to vote for Trump but become Is. Next election, they take the next step to Rs. We saw this with Hispanics and last two elections with blacks. And, as I keep pointing out, even CA continues to show D erosion.
I have to again remind everyone that these numbers will continue to escalate for Ds through several forces: 1) Continued deportations. We are at 2.5 million. No one is asking the right question ("did you vote in an American election? How did you vote?") but I think we all know that upwards of 90% of those who voted cast their ballot for a D. Think of that: nationwide Ds lost 2.2 million voters nationally. 2) Voter roll purges: In PA alone, last week 3,600 more came off the rolls. When Ds are in the majority, those are disporportionately D losses. CA, as mentioned, was undergoing a court-imposed purge, but to my knowledge STILL hasn't purged LA County or Orange Co. That purge, when it comes, will not help Ds.
Then we have redistricting. Despite the feckless Rs in IN, the redistricting math is still going to favor Rs by 3-4 seats. Cook has Rs safe in 210 right now. So they start off 2026 at 214---but FL is sitll coming and it may add yet another seat. There is a possiblity NE also adds another R seat. But the big enchilada is coming this spring with the racial redistricting case. If they Supes rule as people think they will, against racial redistricting, you're looking already at AL adding 1-2 more seats. Overall the numbers were 13 seat changes, but some (no one yet knows how many) are already included in the prior redistricting. Regardless, at 216, Rs are just 2 away from a majority. If that occurs---that there are a couple more unredistricted seats out there, 2026 is already over and Rs will have 218 without WINNING A SINGLE "TOSSUP" SEAT--and you know that's not likely. Rs will likely split at worst 60/40.
The numbers re ruthless and relentless, have nothing to do with polls/schmolls, and are completely apart from a recovering economy. It things continue, the economy will be on fire by November. No, Ds won't be blown out---gerrymandering makes that impossible. But we could be looking at R 225 or so in the House, and a safe R senate.
At that point, if you think the soul searching that began after the Trump loss was angst-ridden, you ain't seen nuthin yet.
Speaking as a registered independent, I suspect independent *voters* do lean right but don’t want to be fired from their jobs. Politics is not a protected category. That concern is particularly powerful in blue states.
But registration trends have slowed down. The honeymoon is over and the economy doesn’t feel better yet. It may be accelerating but we’re still only going 30 mph.
I am very skeptical that, regardless of what polls say, Renee Good will help the Democrats. She’s not black and she wasn’t obviously murdered like Floyd. So maybe now that the left is once again feeling empowered enough to be crazy, the registration trends will resume.
Renee Good = Ashley Babbitt.
Any upside Dems might have gotten from the chaos in Minnesota went out the window when they escalated from obstruction of justice to full blown rioting and stormed a church service.
As a genuine centrist independent myself, who has impartially served on juries and sometimes voted in favor of black defendants, I think that the killing of Good had far less mitigation than the killing of Floyd (as determined by a trial conducted in the atmosphere of a leftist lynch mob supported by prominent Democrat officials).
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/01/20/donald-trump-legacy-history-00736032
As the great Rush Limbaugh used to say, he could "read the stitches on a fastball." Well, this one ain't that fast. They are warning that Trump will get a "third term" whether he runs or not due to the permanence of his programs. But this is also an unspoken admission that J.D. Vance will beat any D. (Currently, I have Vance at 320, but if the candidate is the Amazing Zohran, as I suspect it will be, Vance would come in somewhere around 360 EVs and about 2.5% of the popular vote.
Mamdani won't be nominated because he can't be elected. He is not a natural born American citizen.
I hear that a lot. It absolutely don't stop Ds, and Rs / judges will be too cowed to oppose.
It would be a prima facie violation of the constitution's plain language, so I very strongly think it wouldn't fly. Unlike with other constitutional questions, there's no absolutely no ambiguity on that one.
>>"The numbers re ruthless and relentless, have nothing to do with polls/schmolls, and are completely apart from a recovering economy."<<
Delusions of motivated reasoning, my friend. The economy's everything--always has been, always will be. Ask the Republicans planning their 'permanent rule' circa 2008. And until Trump does something to strengthen the dollar, inflation isn't going anywhere, and interest rates aren't gonna come down fast enough to achieve broad-based growth. The devaluation has been the worst since the 70s. I haven't seen him even *hint* at doing so, but he has the tools and the opportunity, if he wants to use it. (ballrooms and demented tantrums about Greenland will not get it done)
Motivated reasoning appears to be on your end. Trump has been in office for almost exactly one year, and the 1Y for the S&P 500 is up 13%. The Russell 2000 is up 17%.
Your cherry-picking of economic data is not matching up with what the people who make money correctly aggregating all the data are concluding.
The stock market was hitting records under Biden, too. I thought he was an economic disaster?
If inflation and affordability is the focus here, a dollar devaluation is literally the exact *opposite* of the goal. Inflation can't decelerate if the currency is consistently losing value, and interest rates can't come down if inflation doesn't decelerate, unless you want more inflation. (see: Turkey)
Inflation had been on broad downward trend since March 2023, until Trump's weak-dollar policies slammed on the brakes. We've been oscillating sideways ever since, even as unemployment has risen. If you think people are going to approve of someone elected to lower costs, that then delivers stagflation, you're going to be disappointed.
Biden was a disaster because of 8% inflation. Predicted by staunch Democrat, economist and Obama advisor Larry Summers. That undermined real wages. Inflation is now 2%.
You’re making a different claim: that Trump’s policies are hurting economic projections. They aren’t.
You cited the stock market as the sign that the economy was doing well--Biden's record there is as good as Trump's. If you're saying it doesn't matter vis a vis a president's economic performance, why did you bring it up in Trump's case?
I'm not talking about projections, I'm talking about what's happened since January 2025--the CPI stopped declining in March 2024, bucking the previous downward trend that had started a year before, and then began oscillating sideways. It rose from May through August and still hasn't settled near the Fed's 2% mark. That's despite the fact that unemployment, which is supposed to be deflationary and negatively correlated with inflation, has gone up. So we are quite literally in stagflation--rising unemployment, sustained inflation.
Notably, the last time we had stagflation was in the 70s, and it was caused by (what a coincidence!) a huge dollar devaluation resulting from the end of Bretton Woods and the gold standard. Needless to say, such conditions do not make people happy--as Jimmy Carter had to find out.
1. You said Trump's economy is bad. That's empirically false.
2. I'm a critic of Biden, but because of inflation eroding real wages
3. Inflation is about 2.5% to 3% under Trump versus 8% with Biden
4. The dollar is down because of interest rate cuts, which we need to heat up the economy and induce real wage growth. That's not analogous at all the 70s.
5. Inflation is high because of one-off hit from tariffs. I know the left (and the neoliberal right) doesn't want the working class to be able to make a good living by working (the left because they want them on welfare, the neoliberal right because they want them working for peanuts)
6. Inflation is also high because we are starting to see real wage growth, which we need more of to erode Biden - and the left generally - bad policies.
And above all: never forget that liberal economics doesn't work. It doesn't work on theory. And it doesn't work in practice. That's why red states are growing faster than blue states, why California has been shedding businesses and people since turning blue, why nations like Poland are surpassing Western European nations like France, and why Europe is falling further and further behind the US in per-capital PPP-adjusted hourly GDP
No relationship between DXY (dollar index) and inflation.
DXY is broadly negatively correlated with CPI, and we know the mechanisms that explain why--among others (A.)making imports more expensive, (B.) allowing domestic companies to raise prices without sacrificing demand, (e.g., Japanese cars are $3000 more expensive, domestic manufacturers can now raise their prices $2000 and not sacrifice competitive price positioning) and, most crucially, (C.) because key commodities like oil, gold and other precious metals are priced in dollars.
Here's the two indices presented in monthly % change: https://imgbox.com/YuBQNZKD
You can check the source data here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-price-index-cpi
The link is non-responsive. You clearly haven't even eyeballed a long-term DXY chart, which is what I did before making my comment.
You are looking at statewide numbers. Works for electoral votes, but you have not mapped them to congressional districts so I question the applicability to the midterms.
Predicting 28 when the results of 26 haven't even tallied is rather humorous. Some Dems say they will investigate every member of the Trump administration. Schumer states he will give back all the money that Trump took away and add more. And still no policies that pertain to everyday Americans with kitchen table issues.
The last impeachments by the Dems were jokes that many saw through as rigged and more political than ever. A waste of time. A Dem House that got nothing done. And we saw what happened to inflation when the biden administration spent money like water from spigot. Fact is, any reasonable Dem should be scared to death that the Dems will do as promised. Like the lost to Trump due to Dem's incompetence and hostility to every day Americans, could spell the end to the Democrat party. Dems might start an educational program in their ranks by starting with the word "govern".
Both parties are so unpopular that it really is anyone's game. Democrats have the edge in the short-run because Trump is a Democratic turnout machine, but they'll eventually have to govern well to win, (this is the key insight to be taken away from the 'abundance' approach) and long run any Dem who feels remotely complacent needs an old-fashioned bopping on the head with a newspaper, if anyone can find one. I am glad to see candidates like Peltola in the running. Now candidates like Talarico need to politically defenestrate the Crocketts of the world.
Talarico will win the Dem primary walking away. Either of my 2 dogs could easily beat Crockett in Texas. Talarico's problem comes in the General. Ironically Allred may had a real shot this time around, but was pushed out.
Talarico's anti Christian Nationalism lectures,( whatever that is) are likely to fall flat in a state where many people, both Rep and Dem, regularly attend Christian churches, or have family and friends who attend. Nor is Talerico's proclamation "Jesus is nonbinary " likely to excite many Texas Independents.
Talarico has been, historically, pro open borders. James now asserts his position has changed, since he recently became aware of what Texas border families endured under Biden.
That claim is so ridiculous, his nose must grow when discussing the subject. Every Texan knew 90 days into Biden's term about the quasi warfare at the border. The notion Talarico, sitting in Austin 5 hours way, was unaware of the border chaos for years, is laughable.
Talarico's only saving grace would be a Paxton primary win. Cornyn likely beats him by 5 points or more.
"If this was truly a Christian nation, we would forgive student debt." Verbatim quote from James Talarico.
Fish Family Freedom! Sounds good to me. For people who get a significant amount of food from natural sources it's hard to describe the importance of that source and the distaste for anyone who threatens your food. For Alaskans salmon are a bigger source than moose, and both populations seem to be in decline. I hope Peltola does well.
She "holds positions on cultural issues that generally combine socially liberal views with a pragmatic, moderate approach tailored to the unique, often bipartisan political landscape of Alaska." Word salad meaning what?
They don't want to say she supports aerial gunning of wolves and paw trapping of bears, loves oil development, the church (whichever one you belong to), etc. That's the "unique bipartisan" etc. It's Alaska. Party doesn't matter as much as they are all mostly on the same page. Only problem is who she might caucus with.
Can men get pregnant?
Oh, that question just begs for an R-rated response patented by a roommate 40 years ago, but I think I will demur for propriety's sake. LOL
I doubt it, though female caribou do have horns.
Blue will get bluer, red redder and the purple districts will depend entirely on the candidate and whether they can appeal to moderates.
Blue states grew redder in 2024
I don't see how. Republican party just doesn't have the infrastructure in those states to win contested elections.
I love the wonky look at polling and numbers. Something to chew on from now until November.
I think the polls that comprise the RCP averages are significantly understating Trump's approval and overstating Democratic strength. I have followed them closely since late '23, and have never seen them as skewed as they are today. That said, it's hard to forecast mid-terms.
My gut says that '26 will turn on the economy, which I think is in better shape than the legacy media are willing to "report." I also think that the Rs would win it running away if Trump would a) introduce immigration reform to legalize people here before 2020, and b) set up a credible process to examine and mitigate mistakes made by ICE.
You really think amnesty will motivate the republican base? Seriously?
That's a significant political problem. I will admit that I don't know the details of Reagan's amnesty. If anyone with real pull were to threaten to take me and my I.Q. seriously enough to cause me to jump into the deep end of the pool, I bet I could quickly snatch the quarter off the bottom and come up with a compromise. But I have to agree with your implication that it selling it would be quite the task.
By the way, I don't think for a millisecond that this is simply a matter of the R base. I don't think the D "progressives" who have a hammerlock on the party have the slightest interest in a fix either. If this one gets solved, I strongly think it will get solved through the independent plurality attracting enough defectors from each side's stalwarts.
Any deal on immigration will require both some form of amnesty and increased restrictions/enforcement to prevent what the Democrats allowed under Biden from ever happening again.
Speaking personally I do have a fair amount of sympathy for the so called “dreamers” from 10 years ago.
Amnesty but not citizenship, maybe. Controlled number of guest worker cards? But never citizenship. Never.
Interesting piece in the NY Post pointing out that ICE under Trump has a lower error rate than ICE under Obama, and that both are incredibly low.
https://nypost.com/2026/01/22/opinion/how-trumps-ice-enforcement-record-blows-obamas-out-of-the-water-by-a-lot/
Yes, but the Obama errors got no media notice. Yes, the media are biased, but that's how the cookie crumbles. Life ain't fair, nor are the media.
True that but even I was surprised at the data. Especially the part about the Obama administration deporting 4 US citizens in 15&16