Who is Driving Trump's Rising Favorables?
Amidst hand wringing over Joe Biden’s age, Democrats have been overlooking a crucial component of the 2024 election: Donald Trump is more popular now than at any point since he left office. March averages find the former president only about 9 points underwater—a significant improvement from his -15 net favorability on Election Day 2022.
While his support has ticked up among white and black Americans, the share of Hispanic Americans who have a favorable view of Trump has doubled over the last year from around 20 percent to 40 percent. Hispanics now more closely resemble non-Hispanic whites than black Americans in their opinions of Donald Trump, a sharp departure from when Trump was in the Oval Office. General election polling—though still volatile this early—confirms new Hispanic enthusiasm for the former president. Biden barely leads, or even trails, Trump with Hispanic voters despite winning the group by 23 points four years ago.
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I wish someone would do a deep dive into the role of the Catholic church in promoting Trump and trashing its faithful member, President Biden. I grew up Catholic and have one sister who is still active and faithful, and reports Trump promotion in church. A number of older Latino folks I know have told me that they listen to Catholic radio (in Spanish) which is actively promoting Trump and trashing President Biden. Those of us who are educated white liberals with spotty or no church membership have zero idea what is going on in the heart of Latino culture.
We really blew it by relying on the constitution to protect our rights. I was a pregnant 16 year old in 1970 and my priest gave me the money I needed to get a legal abortion in California. The reproductive rights movement believed the ACLU when they assured us that our rights would be forever protected. Meanwhile the anti-abortion movement showed up with fetus photos and we kept abortion shrouded in shame. This is the result.
If you look into the coalition between the Catholic Church and the Religious Right you can find the roots of this disaffection which is now reflected in Latino antipathy for President Biden and support for Trump. (See Frank Schaeffer, for example, who tells the story of how this happened.)
TLP is doing a good job of examining immigration policy as it hurts President Biden and helps Trump, even (or especially) with Latinos. I don't know how many Latinos feel as one person put it to me: "I worked hard and followed the rules, and they want to get into this country without doing that." I'm not sure any of the think tanks is unbiased enough to dig into this issue in a way that honestly reflects what immigrants are thinking. Perhaps you can do it.
For too long the Dems have assumed 1) Latinos prioritize immigration above all other issues and 2) share the left-wing's view of appropriate immigration policies (i.e. grant entry to most of those who want to come). Maybe that was true at one time, but I suspect it is less true today. I don't think Latinos want the draconian policies advocated by Trump or many in the GOP, but they may not fear them as much as they once did. The Latinos who vote have no fear of being deported.