If the political environment in November, 2028 is exactly like it is right now then Vance would beat AOC in a two party race. America is not yet ready for full-blown socialism. But much will occur between now and November, 2028 to change the political environment; if things get bad enough even AOC could win.
A third party candidate (TPC) - who is a genuine moderate - might be a strong candidate in 2028. That genuine moderate would have to come from the Democratic party, someone who can't stomach a hard Left turn like AOC would be. The key voting bloc would be Independents, whom a recent opinion survey found to be 45% of voters, with 27% each for Democrats and Republicans. To win in the electoral college, that TPC would have to win 70%-80% of those Independents, then peel off enough votes from moderates in both major parties to win 270+ electoral votes. A very tall order, not likely. And who is the moderate Democrat with the stature to mount a competitive campaign?
John, probably. I have said for a year that we are seeing the end, the extermination, of the Democrat Party. People today with no historical perspective don't realize this happened all the time in history: Federalists, Liberty, Know-Nothing, Whig, Populist, Progressive, and most recently, Reform. Most people don't think it can happen because they haven't witnessed it happen, but the Ds are almost the inverse Whigs, who had a solid-down ticket, but couldn't stand up for the main issue of the day, slavery. Modern Ds have all sorts of issues, but they are all on the wrong side of all the main issues of the day, trans infiltration of schools, open borders, pro-Uke but anti-Israel, and most of all, anti-male. I've described these five civil wars, and I don't think Ds have moved the ball one inch in the right direction of any.
Therefore, in fact, I do believe that after a significant wipeout by Vance of whomever is nominated (I stand by 320-340 EVs at this time, and 2.5% of the pop vote---but could be much larger if, as I suspect, Ds with throw caution to the wind and nominate AOC or Mamdani---the Ds will have a final fracture in 2029, with a rump of the most radical becoming a new Socialist Party. I have no idea what happens to the other, slightly larger, D majority.
Mr. Schweikart, I understand that it's customary to use the more commonly known "Know-Nothing" party name to refer to the American Party, but why not use the actual name of the Democratic Party? Those of us who tend to support Democratic candidates find the intentional misnaming of the party by its opponents pretty childish. It's successfully irritating, but effectively sends a message that whatever follows is simply an expression of political bias, without any serious attempt at objective reasoning.
What is the Vance/Republican plan to prevent reductions in Social Security and Medicare benefits? No plan so far. Will Vance agree to increase revenues, i.e. tax increases of some kind? That goes counter to Republican dogma for 40+ years.
Democrats are controlled by the hardcore Left now - that's who most shows up to choose candidates in primaries. As you say, they are on the wrong side of several issues, the most damaging being their support for open borders immigration policies. But there is a lot of unease over the economy, what AI will do to job opportunities, etc. It's way too soon to be confident that a very left-wing Democratic party will go extinct.
"Democrats are controlled by the hardcore Left now - that's who most shows up to choose candidates in primaries."
It's hard to understand how you can write this so confidently this morning, Mr. Webster. It was put to the test in the second-most populous state last night and the results quite clearly show something different. As a liberal who generally votes Democratic I'm very optimistic about the prospects of a more pragmatic turn by the Democratic Party.
Economy is always #1. On SS, at some point there will have to be a stair-stepped program for new signees to join later, say, at 67, while again, new signees only will probably see a very slight SS "contribution." This has been the plan for every single bailout I've seen, but predictably Rs don't want to touch it. Ds, of course, moved SS to the general ledger in the early 1970s, so they will have no trouble taxing everyone more when it is needed. But for now---as for the past 50 years---kick the can down the road.
All of that very well be negated by Trump's tariffs, which despite the Court ruling, will be in place under different legal reasoning that K laid out, and which could be used (and likely will be used) to just supplement SS.
Well said. The Green and Constitution Parties are even weaker than the Libertarians. The Democrats also have the issue that at some point the progressive left may get tired of the centrist left doing things to make them lose. At some point the role 'perpetual junior partner' stops working. What happens next is unclear.
I think the results of yesterday's Democratic Primary in Texas indicates that AOC has very little chance of being the party's 2028 presidential nominee.
Speaking as a Texan, yesterday's results point to AOC and Mamdani being the Dem standard bearers, at least for policy, even more. Hand it to Dems. Talarico is the quintessential Trojan Horse, or Trojan Longhorn, in Texas .
In no particular order, James supports unrestricted abortion, child transitions, and the 2nd coming of the Green New Deal. Talarico doesn't just believe in Open Borders and abolishing ICE. Talarico believes in taxing Americans to provide any world resident who arrives on US soil, legally or not , with perpetual and unlimited welfare.
Talarico also hopes to nationalize the tax and spending of CA and NYC, along with health and childcare. Because who would not hand over a 6 week old baby to the same people who developed the DMV and often refuse to incarcerate child predators?
Talarico is Mamdani with a Bible, instead of a Quran. AOC without the makeup and bar tending skills.
Dems have done a masterful job at hiding Talarico's real beliefs. They took the Spanberger playbook, and radiated it. FYI, yesterday Spanberger noted she would refuse hand over an undocumented murderer to ICE, without a judicial warrant. He was caught on video, brutally killing a 40 year old VA Mother at a bus stop, after numerous previous violent charges and convictions, produced little incarceration.
The "new" religious, moderate Dem party, embracing the undocumented who murder US women, with the audacity to leave the house alone. A Texas primary is one thing. An election is another. We shall see if Reps can pull back the curtain on this massive Dem political hoax.
Beshear, Buttigieg, Emanuel, Gallego, Moore, Ossoff, Shapiro, and Whitmer need to get together in a room and choose one of their number to run with the backing of all the others.
Have Fetterman, Gluesenkamp Perez, Golden, Kelly, Moulton, Sherrill, Slotkin, Spanberger, Torres, and Warnock in the room to mediate.
Next, they need to hope Harris, Newsom, and Ocasio Cortez all run and tear each other apart trying to be furthest left.
GOP has several acceptable, competent prospects from which to choose.
Democrats internecine conflicts are reflective of a body with an infection. If the AOC wing wins it will be a while before the body recovers…if it does.
In 2000, I voted for George Bush who promised "No Nation Building" but then promptly took us into two wars of choice that eventually killed over 10,000 young Americans. I finally decided to never again vote for the lesser of two evils. The lesser of two evils is still evil.
After 2000, I have voted LP simply to make the point that neither major party was running an acceptable candidate. People routinely tell me that I'm wasting my vote, but no vote is wasted when you vote your conscience.
I do not owe my vote to anyone or any party and anyone who wants my vote has to earn it.
If the political environment in November, 2028 is exactly like it is right now then Vance would beat AOC in a two party race. America is not yet ready for full-blown socialism. But much will occur between now and November, 2028 to change the political environment; if things get bad enough even AOC could win.
A third party candidate (TPC) - who is a genuine moderate - might be a strong candidate in 2028. That genuine moderate would have to come from the Democratic party, someone who can't stomach a hard Left turn like AOC would be. The key voting bloc would be Independents, whom a recent opinion survey found to be 45% of voters, with 27% each for Democrats and Republicans. To win in the electoral college, that TPC would have to win 70%-80% of those Independents, then peel off enough votes from moderates in both major parties to win 270+ electoral votes. A very tall order, not likely. And who is the moderate Democrat with the stature to mount a competitive campaign?
John, probably. I have said for a year that we are seeing the end, the extermination, of the Democrat Party. People today with no historical perspective don't realize this happened all the time in history: Federalists, Liberty, Know-Nothing, Whig, Populist, Progressive, and most recently, Reform. Most people don't think it can happen because they haven't witnessed it happen, but the Ds are almost the inverse Whigs, who had a solid-down ticket, but couldn't stand up for the main issue of the day, slavery. Modern Ds have all sorts of issues, but they are all on the wrong side of all the main issues of the day, trans infiltration of schools, open borders, pro-Uke but anti-Israel, and most of all, anti-male. I've described these five civil wars, and I don't think Ds have moved the ball one inch in the right direction of any.
Therefore, in fact, I do believe that after a significant wipeout by Vance of whomever is nominated (I stand by 320-340 EVs at this time, and 2.5% of the pop vote---but could be much larger if, as I suspect, Ds with throw caution to the wind and nominate AOC or Mamdani---the Ds will have a final fracture in 2029, with a rump of the most radical becoming a new Socialist Party. I have no idea what happens to the other, slightly larger, D majority.
Mr. Schweikart, I understand that it's customary to use the more commonly known "Know-Nothing" party name to refer to the American Party, but why not use the actual name of the Democratic Party? Those of us who tend to support Democratic candidates find the intentional misnaming of the party by its opponents pretty childish. It's successfully irritating, but effectively sends a message that whatever follows is simply an expression of political bias, without any serious attempt at objective reasoning.
What is the Vance/Republican plan to prevent reductions in Social Security and Medicare benefits? No plan so far. Will Vance agree to increase revenues, i.e. tax increases of some kind? That goes counter to Republican dogma for 40+ years.
Democrats are controlled by the hardcore Left now - that's who most shows up to choose candidates in primaries. As you say, they are on the wrong side of several issues, the most damaging being their support for open borders immigration policies. But there is a lot of unease over the economy, what AI will do to job opportunities, etc. It's way too soon to be confident that a very left-wing Democratic party will go extinct.
"Democrats are controlled by the hardcore Left now - that's who most shows up to choose candidates in primaries."
It's hard to understand how you can write this so confidently this morning, Mr. Webster. It was put to the test in the second-most populous state last night and the results quite clearly show something different. As a liberal who generally votes Democratic I'm very optimistic about the prospects of a more pragmatic turn by the Democratic Party.
Economy is always #1. On SS, at some point there will have to be a stair-stepped program for new signees to join later, say, at 67, while again, new signees only will probably see a very slight SS "contribution." This has been the plan for every single bailout I've seen, but predictably Rs don't want to touch it. Ds, of course, moved SS to the general ledger in the early 1970s, so they will have no trouble taxing everyone more when it is needed. But for now---as for the past 50 years---kick the can down the road.
All of that very well be negated by Trump's tariffs, which despite the Court ruling, will be in place under different legal reasoning that K laid out, and which could be used (and likely will be used) to just supplement SS.
Well said. The Green and Constitution Parties are even weaker than the Libertarians. The Democrats also have the issue that at some point the progressive left may get tired of the centrist left doing things to make them lose. At some point the role 'perpetual junior partner' stops working. What happens next is unclear.
"Will there be?" is a leading indicator of clickbait.
I think the results of yesterday's Democratic Primary in Texas indicates that AOC has very little chance of being the party's 2028 presidential nominee.
Speaking as a Texan, yesterday's results point to AOC and Mamdani being the Dem standard bearers, at least for policy, even more. Hand it to Dems. Talarico is the quintessential Trojan Horse, or Trojan Longhorn, in Texas .
In no particular order, James supports unrestricted abortion, child transitions, and the 2nd coming of the Green New Deal. Talarico doesn't just believe in Open Borders and abolishing ICE. Talarico believes in taxing Americans to provide any world resident who arrives on US soil, legally or not , with perpetual and unlimited welfare.
Talarico also hopes to nationalize the tax and spending of CA and NYC, along with health and childcare. Because who would not hand over a 6 week old baby to the same people who developed the DMV and often refuse to incarcerate child predators?
Talarico is Mamdani with a Bible, instead of a Quran. AOC without the makeup and bar tending skills.
Dems have done a masterful job at hiding Talarico's real beliefs. They took the Spanberger playbook, and radiated it. FYI, yesterday Spanberger noted she would refuse hand over an undocumented murderer to ICE, without a judicial warrant. He was caught on video, brutally killing a 40 year old VA Mother at a bus stop, after numerous previous violent charges and convictions, produced little incarceration.
The "new" religious, moderate Dem party, embracing the undocumented who murder US women, with the audacity to leave the house alone. A Texas primary is one thing. An election is another. We shall see if Reps can pull back the curtain on this massive Dem political hoax.
Beshear, Buttigieg, Emanuel, Gallego, Moore, Ossoff, Shapiro, and Whitmer need to get together in a room and choose one of their number to run with the backing of all the others.
Have Fetterman, Gluesenkamp Perez, Golden, Kelly, Moulton, Sherrill, Slotkin, Spanberger, Torres, and Warnock in the room to mediate.
Next, they need to hope Harris, Newsom, and Ocasio Cortez all run and tear each other apart trying to be furthest left.
Then the Democrats have a chance in 2028.
Short answer is no.
GOP has several acceptable, competent prospects from which to choose.
Democrats internecine conflicts are reflective of a body with an infection. If the AOC wing wins it will be a while before the body recovers…if it does.
In 2000, I voted for George Bush who promised "No Nation Building" but then promptly took us into two wars of choice that eventually killed over 10,000 young Americans. I finally decided to never again vote for the lesser of two evils. The lesser of two evils is still evil.
After 2000, I have voted LP simply to make the point that neither major party was running an acceptable candidate. People routinely tell me that I'm wasting my vote, but no vote is wasted when you vote your conscience.
I do not owe my vote to anyone or any party and anyone who wants my vote has to earn it.