Would Kamala Harris Do Better Than Biden?

Despite mounting defections, President Biden insists that he is staying in the race. In a campaign call Wednesday afternoon, he told staff: “I am running. I'm the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving.” Post-debate polling, however, looks rough for the incumbent. 

Leaked Democratic internals show Biden losing ground across swing states since the debate. A St. Anselm poll conducted post debate has Biden down two in New Hampshire—a state he won by seven points in 2020. Wednesday’s New York Times survey found Trump leading by six with likely voters. A subsequent Wall Street Journal poll matched the Times number. These margins, should they hold, are incompatible with a Democratic Electoral College win in November.

Meanwhile, a growing majority of Democrats and independents think Biden is too old for the job. Every major demographic group in the Times poll felt Biden was “too old to be effective,” while half of voters think his age is “such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president.” Forty-seven percent of Democrats and a whopping 72 percent of independents believe Democrats should pick a different nominee. 

But, realistically, what’s the alternative? Should Biden step down, the Democratic nominee would very likely be Vice President Kamala Harris. West Wing-esque fantasies of plucking Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom from the void don’t hold much water at this late stage. Harris comfortably leads in primary polls and would benefit from Biden’s sizable coffers—not to mention the thorny politics of passing over the sitting vice president. 

So could Kamala Harris actually do better against Trump than her beleaguered boss? A post-debate poll from CNN offers insights about a potentially historic swap.

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First things first: Trump leads all the Democratic options tested in the poll, a rough spot for the blue team in July. But, though it is just one poll, Kamala Harris actually performs the best among the Democrats tested in the CNN survey, losing to Trump by two points compared to Biden’s six. Her topline numbers are inline with a generic Democrat, suggesting the Vice President has yet to be fully defined, for better or worse, in the public consciousness. 

The underlying numbers offer additional hope for Harris, who does noticeably better with the groups most reluctant to Biden’s candidacy. She wins nonwhite voters by 29 points compared to Biden’s 21. She wins 18-34 year olds by a point, while Biden loses them by 6. Independents back Harris over Trump by three points, but Trump over Biden by 10 points. All these groups are overrepresented among “double haters”—which indicates one of Harris’s main advantages is simply that she isn’t Biden or Trump. 

This is not to suggest Harris would stroll to victory. Early 2024 polls actually showed her underperforming Biden. Her presidential campaign four years ago was a spectacular flop. Republicans will unleash a barrage of negative advertising if she claims the nomination, likely centered on her “border czar” role early in the administration. The downsides are very, very real and her floor is probably lower than Biden’s. But her ceiling is also probably higher. Democratic leaders are staring down two risky paths: one known and one unknown. With exactly four months to Election Day, their choice must come sooner rather than later.