Ruy, I cut my teeth on OH voter registration analysis while at the U. of Dayton. Ohio is not a battleground state. It will go Trump by 10 this cycle after 8 and 8.5 in the last two. On average, Trump has been outperforming senate candidates everywhere by at least five. In Ohio, with these numbers, Trump quite likely can pull Moreno across the line. Vance underperformed Trump for one reason only: Trump wasn't on the ballot. If he had been on the ballot, Vance would have been +8 or more.
Ruy, I cut my teeth on OH voter registration analysis while at the U. of Dayton. Ohio is not a battleground state. It will go Trump by 10 this cycle after 8 and 8.5 in the last two. On average, Trump has been outperforming senate candidates everywhere by at least five. In Ohio, with these numbers, Trump quite likely can pull Moreno across the line. Vance underperformed Trump for one reason only: Trump wasn't on the ballot. If he had been on the ballot, Vance would have been +8 or more.
Hope Brown pulls it out. He's one of the last few Democrats I really like as the party becomes increasingly dominated by poll-tested corporatists.