Can Democratic Factions Coexist and Win Over Independents?

Much has been written about the demographic collapse of the Democratic coalition in the 2024 election. Democrats lost all seven of the major battleground states, with sharp declines in support from 2020 among nearly every major group: black (-22 percent) and Hispanic (-19 percent) men, 18-29 year olds (-14 percent), independents (-10 percent), and non-college voters (-7 percent). Democrats improved only slightly with white women (+1 percent) and women 65 years or older (+5 percent).

The supposed “anti-MAGA majority” theory that drove the Harris campaign behind a message of “democracy versus fascism” did not materialize in 2024. Anti-Trumpism as a strategic goal—and as a set of values and alternative agenda—is clearly incapable of organizing a winning coalition despite hundreds of millions of dollars tossed into “Resistance” groups and media over the years. It didn’t work in 2016 or in 2024. And what did work for Joe Biden in a highly peculiar 2020 election in the middle of the Covid pandemic could not serve as a model for Democratic majorities going forward. Setting aside clear issues related to the president’s age, the Biden administration failed spectacularly at turning animosity towards Trump into support for the Democrats’ policy agenda on the economy and cultural issues.

Notably, the Democratic Party brand is now at its lowest point in decades—with a meager 28 percent of Americans rating the party favorably and less than three in ten adults identifying as Democrats—even as voters express rising doubts about the actions of the new Trump administration over its first six months. Yet, Democrats remain convinced that Trump failure is right around the corner and the “anti-Trump” votes will come rolling in and the party’s standing will rebound. The tariffs will do him in! Medicaid cuts and tax breaks for the rich will do him in! ICE raids and Alligator Alcatraz will do him in! The Epstein files will do him in!

Smarter elements in the party, on the left and in the center, recognize that Trump resistance is not nearly enough to improve the Democrats’ fortunes. But the agreement among factions stops there.

Both ideological groups—the left and center—mistakenly believe they can conquer the other faction to achieve electoral glory. The left thinks its energy, youth, anti-imperial foreign policy, and focus on “affordability” will lead to a renaissance of new voters lifting party fortunes. The success of Zohran Mamdani in the NYC Democratic primary is the main proof point today for their belief that if the establishment and “corrupt Democrats” would just get out of the way, the next generation of passionate “populists” will rebuild the party. On the centrist side, moderates and more establishment Democrats believe that the firm rejection of the cultural leftism of the Squad and other progressives, coupled with a return to “normie” politics and sensible candidates attuned to the values and needs of their localities, will lead to wider national improvement. The success of various Blue Dogs in competitive districts and emerging candidates like Mikie Sherrill in NJ and Abigail Spanberger in VA serve as centrist proof points for how a common-sense faction can lead the party to new heights and win back more independent and swing voters.

Both sides have arguments and elections in their favor, as well as holes in their theories.

The biggest hole for both factions is that they wildly overestimate their ability to vanquish the other side and resolve the party conflict once and for all in their favor with everyone else going along. It isn’t going to happen. Party loyalty is at an all-time low. If the left wants to take over the party and expel all the moderates who don’t bend the knee, the moderates can just leave and choose not to vote, vote third party, or temporarily switch allegiances. The same is true in the other direction. Progressives don’t need to stay in a party they feel is old, reactionary, and out of touch with their values. They can also choose not to vote, vote third party, or switch sides for an election or two.

With party identification at rock-bottom levels, both Democratic factions can ill afford to drum out anyone and desperately need to get over their differences, coalesce around an effective and popular economic agenda, jettison their least popular cultural ideas, and find a better plan to win over independents, disengaged voters, and Obama/Biden-Trump voters. Some of these voters are anti-establishment. Some are “let’s work together” moderates. Some are just fed up with partisan blather and politics altogether. Given this context, various bits and pieces from both factions can help appeal to the disparate center in politics.

Having examined the strengths and delusions of both factions for several decades now, the most plausible path I can see to bridge these divides and reach more independents is for both the left and the center to drop their cultural, foreign policy, and single-issue demands and concentrate on restoring Democrats as the party of economic uplift for working-class Americans.

Rather than marching headlong into factional civil war, the Democratic Party needs to come up with a different approach to institutional and electoral rebuilding—one based on an affirmative agenda that brings together voters from all ideological perspectives in support of a common economic focus. What is the primary goal of the Democratic Party?

We want to help working- and middle-class Americans earn more in their jobs and afford a decent quality of life for their families. Good housing, medical care, education, and a secure retirement shouldn’t be luxuries reserved for the rich. They should be within reach for anyone who puts in the effort. Americans should be able to support their families with full-time employment and enjoy their life with a middle-class income. Democratic policies will seek to encourage economic growth, lift working-class wages, and reduce household costs. We want secure borders and crime-free neighborhoods. We respect different views on cultural, religious, and other contentious social issues, and we aren’t here to tell you what to believe or how to live. That’s your prerogative. As a party, we respect basic civil liberties and civil rights for everyone and oppose special privileges for anyone. Our primary goal is to help make the American Dream a reality for more people.

Can Democrats overcome their factional fantasies to take on this approach? Given current institutional dynamics and the role of social media as the primary mediator for party disputes, I harbor doubts. Unfortunately, rather than suppressing their worst instincts and brokering internal party agreement, Democratic factions and their backers will be encouraged to exploit these divides in upcoming elections and primaries, based on a mistaken assumption that their side is morally righteous and deserves to rule without interference and that any party discord will be repaired on the back end just in time to win over independents.

This is folly.

Democrats should wise up, abandon their sectarian ways, and try to find new methods for achieving common cause before the ugly 2028 primary season—which is closer than anyone wants to think about—blows up in their face and ushers in President JD Vance.