Don’t Call it a Vibe Shift—Yet

Trump’s poll numbers are falling, but it’s still early.

Since Donald Trump’s election in November, political observers have noticed something different about his second go at the presidency: he has enjoyed more popular support than he did the first time around. At the end of his first term, Trump had one of the lowest presidential approval ratings on record, and he averaged the lowest approval of any president in the polling era throughout his four years. Immediately following January 6, it seemed that his political career was finished.

But things change fast in today’s political world. After Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, struggled to get a handle on inflation, immigration, and crime, many Americans began looking back on Trump’s first term—at least pre-Covid—with rose-colored glasses, yearning for a time when things seemed less chaotic and the economy was in better shape. There was a vibe shift under way that many prognosticators failed to foresee, and it was back toward Trump.

The public revolted against Biden and the Democrats, re-installing Trump in the Oval Office. Though it wasn’t just Trump’s win that signaled a this shift but also how he won. He grew his Electoral College advantage from 2016 and actually won the popular vote this time, too. He made gains with non-traditionally Republican groups, including non-white voters, young people, and urban dwellers. He began his second term with majority approval (51.6 percent) and a net approval of 11.6 points, putting him in far better shape than he was at any point in his first term when his approval never even cracked 50 percent.

His opposition, the Democrats, were stunned and dejected, with no real consensus on how to confront him in the early part of his term. It seemed that Trump might really have the juice to enact his agenda, and with solid support from the public this time.

However, never underestimate Trump’s penchant for overplaying an incredible hand. Far from addressing the main issue that powered his return to office—voters’ frustrations with persistent inflation—Trump has instead focused his energy on waging an all-out war on institutions and people whom he believes have wronged him. To be sure, some of his early moves have been broadly popular, especially those regarding immigration and sex and gender. But three months in, many of the core voters who were responsible for his election are beginning to abandon him.

Since beginning his second term in great shape, Trump has lost most of his cushion and is now close to his first-term levels of unpopularity. As of this week, his net approval was underwater and at its lowest point so far, hitting -9.1 points, with 44.1 percent approving against 53.2 percent disapproving. In contrast with his first term, one of his weakest areas this time has been his handling of the economy. According to a tracker from the pollster Adam Carlson, Trump’s net approval is in big trouble on the economy generally (-14.2 points), trade and tariffs (-20.5 points), and inflation (-22.6 points). This is no doubt the product of him doing virtually nothing so far to tackle rising costs—which voters continue to cite as their top concern—while taking other steps that risk exacerbating inflation.

It’s not just the economy, either. Trump’s best issue in his second term has been immigration. Here, too, voters have begun losing trust in him. Carlson’s averages show that Trump’s net approval on the issue went from +10.8 one month ago to just -2.8 as of this week. One reason for this may be a perception that his administration has overreached on its deportation program. A new Economist/YouGov poll found that Americans believe by a two-to-one margin that Trump should bring back Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man whom his administration admitted in court it wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador.

Trump has also experienced an erosion of support from segments of the electorate that helped him win, such as independents. Post-election polling from Fox News and the Associated Press indicated that independent voters broke for Harris only narrowly, by roughly six points. A new Fox News survey, however, found Trump in deeply negative territory with them: just 26 percent approved of his performance compared to a whopping 73 percent who disapproved.

Perhaps even more alarming for Trump is his declining performance among a core constituency: non-college whites. After winning them by more than 30 points last year, these voters are now evenly split on his performance in Fox’s latest poll. And even Carlson’s poll averages only show Trump up with them by 17 points, still a marked drop from last November.

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Despite the bad polling for Trump, it’s important to remember that we’re still only a few months into his second term. Moreover, much of his growing disapproval appears to be in response to self-inflicted wounds. It’s hardly surprising that Trump’s refusal to more directly address voters’ top concern has left them frustrated. His unpopular trade war has also been entirely of his own choosing, and he could bring it to an end at any time and calm people’s fears that it will lead to higher prices.

But the fact that Trump was elected a second time—even after the events that concluded his first term—and with a higher level of support, indicates that more Americans have been willing to overlook his clear deficiencies because they hope he can return things to the way they were before COVID. It’s not hard to see how Trump could earn some of this support back by ending the trade war, publicly pivoting to tackling inflation, and tamping down on the worst excesses of his administration’s immigration policies.

Whether he will actually do any of that is another question entirely, and there’s good reason to be skeptical. But the bottom has not yet fallen out for him. Despite the downward trajectory of his approval rating, Trump still remains in slightly better shape today than he was at this point in his first term. Enough voters appear to be sticking with him for now, possibly in the hope that he will turn things around.

For Trump’s detractors, including the Democrats, this means it’s important not to assume the vibes have shifted back in their direction just yet. If they hope to help facilitate such a shift, they must keep their eye on the ball and hit Trump where he’s most vulnerable: the economy. That may be their best bet to cleave off more of his support and turn the political winds decisively in their favor.

Editor’s note: A version of this essay originally appeared in Persuasion.