Elections Under the Authoritarian Shadow

Luis Montenegro, leader of Portugal’s center-right Democratic Alliance coalition, casts his vote in the country’s March 10 legislative election. (Credit: Rita Franca/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

At its outset, 2024 was hailed as a pivotal year for democracy, with national elections scheduled or expected among almost half of the world’s population, in more than 60 countries and the European Union. Elections perform stress tests and clarify the trajectory of democratic institutions; this year’s elections have thus far mostly confirmed the continued downward global trend for democracy, with 18 consecutive years of decline. But some bright spots for democratic resilience have emerged as well, and several critical elections with difficult to-predict outcomes are slated for the months ahead.

The Scoreboard Today

In the first quarter of 2024, uncompetitive pseudo-elections in Russia, Belarus, and Cambodia tightened the grip of authoritarian rulers. Semi-authoritarians did well too: Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, for instance, won her fourth consecutive term amid a boycott called by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party in response to the arrest of thousands of opposition activists. In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele’s ruling party won a supermajority in the legislative assembly. Indonesia’s presidential election brought victory to Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander implicated in past human rights abuses. The results were challenged by his main opponent, Anies Baswedan, and independent election observers expressed concerns about the electoral process, including the “misuse of state resources to sway voter preferences.”

These elections in semi-authoritarian countries followed a familiar pattern: they consolidated authoritarian rule and continued the erosion of checks on executive power. Pakistan bucked this trend with an electoral surprise, though the country’s democratic deficiencies remained in evidence. The Pakistan Muslim League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and supported by the country’s military was expected to win, but the largest share of seats in parliament went to candidates backed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, even though he was in prison, his party’s name and symbol didn’t appear on the ballot, and thousands of party members were arrested in the past year.

The trend toward authoritarianism even reached democratic Portugal, where the far-right party Chega quadrupled its representation to 50 of the 230 seats in parliament. The center-right Democratic Alliance, which won the largest share of votes in the March 2024 elections, may have to rely on Chega to govern.

There were some bright spots elsewhere, with fair, contested elections demonstrating democratic resilience. In Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party fielded the winning presidential candidate, William Lai, but lost its legislative majority, while the upstart Taiwan People’s Party gained enough legislative seats to hold the balance of power. In Senegal’s presidential election, opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye beat the ruling coalition’s candidate, former Prime Minister Amadou Ba.

What’s at Stake in Upcoming Elections

Dozens more elections are coming up later this year. Each will, of course, follow its own country-specific dynamics. But altogether these elections will indicate democracy’s global trajectory: will authoritarianism continue to spread, or will democratic gains start to outpace setbacks? In the broadest terms, here’s what to look for:

• Have authoritarian regimes stamped out political alternatives, or is there space left for meaningful opposition?

• In semi-authoritarian countries, have incumbents blocked the political opposition from mounting a serious challenge for power, or do elections provide for genuine competition?

• In democratic elections, is public discontent fueling a further rise of authoritarian-leaning populists, or are candidates and parties committed to democratic principles and individual rights holding their ground?

Among the more consequential elections coming up, India’s looks likely to follow the trend toward authoritarianism. Although elections in India remain competitive and opposition parties have formed an alliance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win. Under Modi, democratic norms have eroded significantly: government institutions have targeted political opponents, courts have ruled in Modi’s favor on major cases, critical media voices were muzzled, civil society organizations were harassed, and persecution of India’s Muslims has risen.

Other pivotal elections, including the European Union, Mexican, and U.S. elections are less predictable at the moment. They will put democracy’s strength to the test.

EU parliamentary elections in June are expected to produce big gains for far-right parties. The European Council on Foreign Relations predicts a “sharp right turn,” with anti-EU populists taking the lead in nine of the EU’s 27 member states and placing second or third in nine more countries. A quarter of European Parliament seats may go to far-right parties, enough for them to influence the EU’s policy agenda.

The anticipated right-wing surge reflects widespread discontent across the continent and may prompt significant policy shifts, such as tougher restrictions on immigration, which reflect public preferences. The concerns for liberal democracy arise from the record of far-right parties when they were in power. Poland’s Law and Justice party, for instance, exerted political control over the judiciary and crowded out independent media. In Hungary, the ruling party Fidesz has done much the same—and more. It has skewed the electoral process in its favor, pursued crony capitalism, and banned public discussion of gender and sexual diversity. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán openly calls for “illiberal democracy.”

Large gains in the EU elections may generate momentum for far-right parties in future national elections and further weaken the EU’s capacity to enforce its democratic standards, which Orbán has flouted for over a decade. Moreover, a right-wing surge may diminish EU support for Ukraine as Russia steps up its influence operations in Europe.

In Mexico, presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of the governing Morena party holds a comfortable lead in the polls. The Mexican electoral process remains competitive but has significant flaws and may deteriorate. Past elections were marred by extensive allegations of illicit campaign activities, including campaign finance violations and misuse of public funds. The independent election agency’s capacity to administer national and local elections, particularly to oversee campaign spending, was weakened in 2023 when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador slashed its funding. Moreover, cartel violence has affected previous elections and risen in recent years. In only the first two months of 2024, several candidates were killed before election campaigns officially began.

In the United States, the upcoming presidential election sets high stakes for democracy. A victory by former president Donald Trump raises the prospect that the next administration may use government powers to go after political opponents, politicize the civil service, pardon insurrectionists, and weaken support for democratic partners abroad, particularly Ukraine. If President Joe Biden wins, there will still be risks of political violence and further erosion of public confidence in U.S. elections, as Trump is likely to contest a defeat this year as he did in 2020.

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What can liberal democracy’s defenders do to stem the authoritarian advance?

• Support fair elections—and more: Efforts to minimize disinformation and outside interference and promote level electoral playing fields are necessary but insufficient. If checks on executive power are weak, electoral competition will already be tilted in favor of incumbents before campaigns even begin. Democracy support should address upcoming elections and strengthen political rights and civil liberties in countries where elections will take place in 2025 and beyond.

• Contain authoritarian powers, particularly Russia and China: The United States and its allies need to ramp up their measures to counter malign influence, including electoral interference, and check Russia’s and China’s geopolitical advances. Support for Ukraine to repel Russian forces from its territory and for Asian countries to stand up to China will weaken the influence of authoritarian powers, increase the appeal of U.S. and European partnerships, and enhance the resilience of democracy.

• In leading democracies, press for political reforms: Discontent with established political alternatives in Europe and the United States fuels the rise of illiberal forces. Reforms to make our political systems more representative can sap the momentum of extremist parties and reinvigorate the spectrum of parties committed to democratic principles.

Today’s challenges to democracy are profound. They call for a resolute response. Liberal democracy’s defenders need to show determination in both the short and the long games—to step up support both for fair processes in upcoming elections and for liberal institutions that will sustain democracy and make fair elections possible in the future.

Daniel Calingaert is Dean for Global Programs at Bard College and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. The views expressed here are his own.