How Missouri Captures the Democrats’ Image Problem
Voters in the Show-Me State have soured on the party over the past decade, even as they continue to support many of its core policies.
News coverage of the Democratic Party’s recent electoral struggles often focuses on their growing losses with working-class voters in Rust Belt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All three were once reliably blue—at least at the presidential level—but have become more competitive in recent years. These losses have produced even worse results for Democrats elsewhere in the region. For example, following Senator Sherrod Brown’s re-election loss this year, Republicans now control all statewide offices in Ohio, a state that voted for Barack Obama twice.
It’s tempting to look at this picture and conclude that many voters in this part of the country no longer want anything to do with the Democrats. But the recent history of another Midwestern state complicates that theory. In my home state of Missouri, a once-reliable presidential bellwether that has become deeply Republican, voters were very much open to supporting Democrats in the not-too-distant past. It’s easy to forget that the Show-Me State nearly went for Obama in 2008. And following the 2012 election, Democrats controlled six of Missouri’s eight statewide offices, buoyed by support from voters everywhere.
But just four years later, Donald Trump carried it by a full 20 points, as Democrats’ erstwhile support in rural areas plummeted. Today, most of the party’s candidates only win the four counties home to Missouri’s three major population hubs—Jackson (Kansas City), St. Louis (the county and city), and Boone (Columbia)—which collectively have not been enough to keep them competitive statewide.
Additionally, mirroring the aforementioned trends in Ohio, Democrats in 2022 were locked out of all statewide offices for the first time since 1870. Republicans have also held supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature since 2012.
However, even in the face of the party’s decline in Missouri, voters there have still shown support for many Democratic policies. Missouri is one of a handful of states with a robust ballot measure tradition, and as Democrats have struggled to win contests for elected office, they’ve been taking their issues directly to the voters—and finding immense success. Over just the past few cycles, Missourians have sided with Democrats on:
“Right-to-work.” By a whopping two-to-one margin, Missouri voters in 2018 rejected a Republican-driven effort to pass a “right-to-work” law in the state, which would have made it easier for companies to disrupt union organizing efforts. The measure, whose defeat marked a big win for organized labor, won majority support in just 15 of Missouri’s 115 counties.1
Medicaid expansion. After the GOP-led state legislature repeatedly rejected attempts to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, voters took to the polls to do it themselves. By a more than six-point margin, Missourians voted in 2020 to extend health coverage to as many as 217,000 low-income residents. The success of this measure was driven by the state’s major metropolitan areas—the only ones to back it with majority support—but its margins significantly outran those of most recent Democratic candidates in counties across the state.
Marijuana legalization. Even as Democrats were losing their final statewide seat in 2022, voters passed a constitutional amendment making marijuana legal. The measure, which succeeded by a six-point margin, received majority support in 14 counties. As with Medicaid expansion, support for the measure outpaced margins enjoyed by most Democratic candidates all over the state.
Abortion rights. In 2024, Trump again carried the state by nearly 20 points. At the same time, the electorate supported two measures that were heavily favored by the Democratic Party. The biggest headline result was the success of a constitutional amendment enshrining into law the right to an abortion and repealing the state’s current ban. Though the measure only narrowly passed by three points—and the only counties where it received majority support were in and around the three major population centers—support for it outpaced support for Kamala Harris in every single county.
Minimum wage, and paid leave. Also in 2024, voters approved an initiative that raised the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour and also guarantee paid sick leave. This measure received majority support from counties all across the state and passed by an overwhelming 15-point margin.
These results show that Missouri voters are generally aligned with Democrats on key issues. And yet, many still have hostile views about the party as a whole. According to the 2024 AP VoteCast survey in Missouri, fully 63 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of the Democrats, including 51 percent who held a “very unfavorable” view of them. At the same time, voters viewed the Republicans—who were on the other side of every ballot measure listed above—favorably by a margin of 55–43 percent.
Moreover, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, Lucas Kunce, showed that simply campaigning on issues that are popular with the electorate may not be enough to regain lost ground in places like Missouri. Kunce ran a campaign rooted in themes of reproductive rights and economic populism, including touting his support for antitrust measures, tariffs, and unions. Ultimately, though, he only did about 1.8 points better than Harris, a sign that the “D” next to his name still outweighed his support for policies favored by most voters.
All this is indicative of a broader conundrum for Democrats: leaning into popular issues may be insufficient if voters feel increasingly estranged from the party across social and cultural lines. As my colleague, Ruy Teixeira, has written, “The idea that Democrats can just turn up the volume on economic issues and ignore sociocultural issues when they are viewed as out of the mainstream is absurd. Culture matters, and the issues to which they are connected, matter.”
Allow me to offer a personal example of how I’ve witnessed this cultural shift. In 2012, I had the chance to stop by a gathering of Missouri Democrats in the town of Hannibal—the birthplace of Mark Twain—called “Demo Days.” One of the first things I noticed when I walked into the main hall was a table for a group called Second Amendment Democrats. I remember taking note that the party had included gun owners at the event, a sign that they understood the importance of building a broad coalition to win in a state that was not deep-blue. My college also received visits that cycle from Governor Jay Nixon and Attorney General Chris Koster, both Democrats who held more right-leaning views, including support for gun rights and the death penalty.
Looking back on that election, I wonder: is there a place in the party’s coalition today for voters and politicians who care about gun rights? What about ones who are anti-abortion, pro-death penalty, or unsure they agree with the Democratic base on issues related to race, gender, and immigration? Would the Democrats even think of holding major party events in Hannibal or similar areas today?2
These questions strike at a deeper reason why Democrats have struggled to regain support from voters who backed them barely over a decade ago: many simply no longer see themselves in the party. As the Democrats increasingly represent a secular, college-educated, urban-dwelling, affluent, culturally progressive professional class, it becomes harder to sell themselves as the party of the people—even as they’re often on the side of public opinion on important issues.
It remains to be seen how Democrats will grapple with this disconnect and address their deficiencies moving forward, but they would be well served by heeding what is perhaps becoming a new axiom of American politics: “It’s the culture, stupid.”
Technically, Missouri has 114 counties and one independent city (St. Louis).
It doesn’t appear the Demo Days gathering has occurred for some time now.
It is important to distinguish between the policies of Democrats and the policies of "Progressives."
My wife and I have been saying this for a long time now--"progressives" are more interested in the self-serving feeling of being "right" than they are in winning.
They have invaded our beloved Democratic Party and made their positions LOUDLY and everywhere. It is important when people write about non-Republicans to clearly make a distinction between Democrats and Progressives. They are NOT the same. They are as different as Democrats and Republicans. So it is not surprising at all that people can endorse Democratic positions and at the same time reject Democrats---it is because they see people running as Democrats as actually being part of the progressive, not Democratic, movement. They are rejecting progressives.
Everyone knew that Harris was not really a Democrat but was a progressive. Just because she recently dropped all of her progressive nonsense talk didn't mean anything---people knew she was just talking in a more moderate/Democratic way to win votes. For one thing, she chose the most progressive governor as her running mate.
Democrats have a choice: kick progressives out of the party and stop identifying them as Democrats or keep losing.
A culture for embittered Democrats that now stoops to denial and serious name-calling of political opponents rather the modest introspection a measure of humility. Proving that it's going to take a few more lopsided losses for them to shake their self-righteous arrogance.