"Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."
Pretty easy to imagine this quote coming from Trump but it is actually from FDR. The problem with the Democrats is not so much the urban bubble they are in but it is that they have become The Establishment. This is especially hard for Boomers (and their Millennial children) to come to terms with.
Richard, in my substack today "Wen Trump Screws Up" I pointed out that the GOP in 1931-1945 really was in a similar position. They could not criticize anything FDR did because they would have been called anti-American and (even) pro-Axis. So they shut up and went along. When the war ended, they were in the minority, but were not viewed as anti-American, which is where the Ds are today. https://larrys.substack.com/p/when-trump-screws-up
1941? In the 30s there a substantial non-intervention movement that did get called pro-Axis after 1933. Lots of Republicans but also Democrats like Joe Kennedy. They all recanted after Pearl Harbor. FDR had been scheming to get involved in Europe but the war with Japan wasn't the one he wanted. Like everyone else, he underestimated Japan. In an incredible act of folly, Hitler declared war on the US. As near as I can tell, it was the only time he ever honored a treaty.
FDR was overwhelmingly popular, Larry. Trump is not.
Check Trump’s numbers with independents—the largest voting bloc, with the fastest-growing registration #’s—and please add a little rigor to your historical analysis, if you want it to be taken seriously.
Spot on. Dems have not amended their energy, immigration or child social engineering policies. A recent demonstration at Stanford Hospital, in Palo Alto, seemed to sum up Dem immigration policy quite clearly.
A 40 something year old wife, her husband and 2 kids entered the US from Mexico 3 years ago, utilizing Tourist Visas. Then they simply never went home. They enrolled the kids in school. The parents took jobs as a housekeeper and landscaper. When ICE recently arrived at their home, the otherwise healthy woman, appeared to be have a heart issue, and was taken to Stanford Hospital.
After extensive testing, and finding no serious health issues, the hospital kept her for observation. As she was in ICE custody, ICE barred all visitors, and posted a guard at the door. This led to a demonstration with protesters vilifying ICE and the Trump administration.
Like many, I feel for the family, especially the children, forced to leave a school they have attended for 3 years. However, the woman was not brought to the US as a child or trafficked against her will. By all accounts, she executed paperwork stating her family intended to visit the US, and then return to Mexico. The family chose not return. So 3 years later, with Tourist Visas long expired and illegally dwelling in the US, Trump and Americans who expect them to leave, as promised, are the villains? The issue becomes even more profound when one realizes the US issues some 8 -11 miillion tourist visas a year, or more.
Trump's election seemed to make clear, Americans believe we should control our borders. The parade at the border has ended, but current Dem policy is obviously, anyone nonviolent on US soil should be allowed to remain permanently, regardless of a lack of a valid asylum claim or the lack of economic self sufficiency.
Dems have avoided admitting the above, but their actions make the policy clear. If Reps are smart they will not only inform voters, but loudly and repeatedly, quantify the costs to American taxpayers. If Reps can accomplish that, Dems are going to have an even higher hill to climb, long before anyone discusses Green fantasies and children with male genitalia, occupying formally exclusive female spaces.
I have no doubt in my mind if the Dems regain power here we go again … uncontrolled illegal immigration, trans , ev mandates etc. They know what is good for us so they think
Did you consider the way you describe Trump and his actions are no different from those attitudes by Dems before the lost election? Your post is the SS:DD. How do you expect any Democrat to change or moderate when the words and attitudes they read do not? The Democrat’s woes have nothing to do with Trump. There could be the most moderate Republican President and the losing strategy and attitude by the Dems would persist. The silver lining is, it makes it easy to justify not voting for liberals.
I’ll add something: like him or not, Trump is changing things — quickly. For the last 30 years, the Democrats have smugly told us that “change has to be incremental.“ Then they bicker. And even their big bills are small and then falter.
The CHIPS act sounds big at $39 billion until you learn that Apple has been pouring more than $50 billion into China, EVERY YEAR, for many years (read Apple in China). Intel’s first factory was supposed to open in Ohio this year. It’s been delayed until 2030 or 2031. As far as I know, there are still no open facilities funded under the CHIPS Act (possibly one in the testing phase in Arizona). China has 6 million manufacturing facilities, with thousands opening since 2023. We don’t even have 5% of that number.
Dems orate about justice and equity and all kinds of Big Idea talking points, but at the end of the day, people slip further behind while they tell us that high prices all in our minds. Meanwhile, the few things they do manage to put into law are dominated by crazy ideas, like elevating unproven medical treatments to such a lofty height, a parent questioning gender ideology may lose custody of a child. Or prioritizing Section 8 housing for illegal immigrants while taxpayers sink deep down the list. Etc.
And then they announce that anyone voting against them is stupid. I say all this as a disgusted former lifelong Dem who went Independent after voting against Biden in the 2024 primaries.
Once again, Ruy, you kinda beat me to it. You have, without using my term, listed the "five D Civil Wars". The problem is a little simpler, however: so far the Democrats do not want to confront these issues in the party. No, it's not Ds vs. Trump. It's Ds vs. Crazy Ds.
As an R, of course, I am utterly thrilled with this. As a historian, I'm even happier because all indicators are that at the rate the D Party is shrinking, and given its inability to come to grips with ANY (let alone all) of these civil wars, I very seriously predict extinction by 2030 if not before. Yes, we have had numerous major parties go extinct (Federalists, Whigs, Populists, and most recently, Reform).
But, in being a good neighbor, I will throw out one area where so far the Trump administration hasn't been out in front (and that's very, very few areas): AI and WATER. A new D 21st century plan---a real plan---would be to embrace AI (cuz it's not going anywhere)---and to not only get on board with nukes, oil, and gas for POWER but get ahead of Trump on WATER and begin advocating desalinization plants. Cuz that's what it's gonna take.
Now, just for your latest morning jolt: R registration #s continue to grow. In NJ, in the last month Rs net gained 3,000 on Ds, or 43,000 since Nov. In NM, a small state where a few shifts can bring change, in July Rs net gained 600, August, 500. That is absolutely not negligible, putting NM on a path to (like PA and NC) flip completely red before 2028. (NC and PA will shift next year). NJ will be a swing state/tossup in 2028. And if the fed gubment continues to shrink & former bureaucrats leave NOVA? VA will also be a swing state by 2028.
Yoda: "Always in motion is the future." You are absolutely right that a war, strong inflation, etc. "could" change things. How much? Let's ask history: in 1857 the Whigs were dying. The Republican party was ascendant because it was the ONLY party willing to call slavery immoral, evil, and to try to make it extinct. But the Whigs were still around. Did the Panic help either the Ds or the Whigs? Nope. In fact, as I show in my book "Seven Events that Made America," the Panic of 1857 only convinced Democrats that slavery was needed moer than ever. So would a crisis help the Democrats? Only if they are offering a clear way OUT of said crisis. More government spending/bigger gubment=inflation. Nope, that won't work. More woke? No, that won't work. More green? That will increase energy prices, so that won't work. More Uke support? You get my drift. If NONE of your major policies are on the right side of 80/20, it still won't help you at the ballot boc.
And yes, NYSlimes stole my stuff. And they are still WAY behind reality. It's much worse than what the Times wrote.
The Democrats won't change their crazy wokester policies no matter what, and their economic policies would likely be counter-productive - make a bad situation even worse. But if economic conditions ever get bad during the Trump administration, Republicans will be blamed by most voters no matter who is actually responsible for the problem.
A large majority of voters believes in what I call the Magic Wand theory of Economics, explained as follows. Joe Dokes is President, and he has a Magic Wand that controls the economy. If Dokes is a benevolent and competent person, then he so waves the Magic Wand that prosperous conditions are created: low unemployment, low inflation, overall very prosperous. If Dokes is evil and/or incompetent, he so waves the Magic Wand that the result is dismal: high unemployment, high inflation, overall misery.
What Congress does or doesn't do are not even thought of. Even when there is divided government, most people blame the incumbent President for hard times. Most people don't much understand how the federal government is structured, and their knowledge of basic economics ranges from minimal to non-existent. My main point here is that if the economy goes bad, that factor will overwhelm all the Democratic craziness on open borders, DEI, transgenderism, etc. James Carville's phrase from 1992 is still true and probably always will be: "It's the economy, stupid."
I saw recently that the NY Times published a long article on the voter registration data that you often write about. Did they steal your ideas without attribution? ;)
If trends stayed static then voter registration data would be conclusive proof that the Democratic party is heading for irrelevancy, maybe even extinction. But events could easily overwhelm these current trends and result in Democratic dominance in Congress and the White House by 2032, even by 2028.
A serious recession would result in Democrats making major gains. That always happen to the Out party. A major uptick in inflation would crush GOP propects - as happened to the Harris 2024 campaign. Trump is trying to strongarm the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates (both short term and long term) by 3%. If the Fed actually did that the inflationary spiral would far exceed what happened under Biden - dooming Republicans.
The bottom line: the crystal ball for future election outcomes is - as always - very cloudy.
As usual, this take overlooks what happens to political movements based around strongmen when the strongmen leave the stage. They simply don’t survive.
The opposition that killed the Whigs was not based on a strongman figure. MAGA—and the current version of the Republican Party—is, and Trump simply doesn’t have the brains to orchestrate a proper succession plan.
Again, you sound very much like the Democrats right before 2016 rolled around, and Obama left the stage. Before pride goeth the fall.
I believe many are missing the swing Right all over the West. It is not just Trump or MAGA, whatever that is. We have been regular visitors to Europe for more than 30 years. Then, there was little crime anywhere in Western Europe except for few pickpockets in urban France and organized crime in southern Italy. Scandinavia and Germany felt like storybooks come to life. Tourists could spend a week looking for a piece of trash. London was prim, proper and pristine. Ditto for Switzerland, where everything worked like the proverbial Swiss watch.
One could start in Norway an hour outside the Arctic Circle, and visit every country West of France. Crime was unlikely to be a thought, until you saw the Eiffel Tower. Then the only concern was pickpockets, not violence.
That was just 3 decades ago, not 3 centuries. Of all of Western Europe, only Switzerland now feels remotely the same, and even Zurich is covered in graffiti.
The building art is hardly the first concern. Rapes have quadrupled in much of Western Europe in just 10 years. Similar increases over the next decade, would mean women unable to safely leave the house without a male escort, in Western Europe.
Much of the Continent, now feels perpetually on edge. PreCovid it did not seem savable, but now there is something in the air. Lousy governance can be shoved down citizen's throats for so long, before they regurgitate and seek air. That is what happened with Trump. It is the part Dems fail to comprehend most. Trump does not lead a cult, but a bunch of Americans who have had enough. Trump is the guy, in the right place, at the right time, who recognized people had reached their breaking points.
And that is what seems to be happening in Western Europe. England, France and Germany, Italy all have their own versions of Trump, many female. Globalism and mass migration have drastically diminished citizen living standards and their nation's character, all to enrich a few. And many Europeans have had enough.
There are only a few places in the U .S. where desalination plants would be cost effective as opposed to conservation and recycling of water. The main consumptive use in most places is for irrigation of crops, lawns, parks and golf courses, where there is plenty of room for cutting back without seriously impacting normal household and industrial uses other than lawn watering. So, this is not generally a winning issue for Democrats or anyone.
That’s trivial in relation to the water required for irrigation nationally, and particularly in the West. Also, I assume that most of the water used in data centers can be returned to the watershed and reused.
Far from having my head in the sand on water issues, I had a career dealing with them as a civil engineer, and apparently unlike you understand the difference between once-through use of water, closed-cycle use, and consumptive use. While I'm not an expert on data centers, I know that they don't actually "consume" much water in the way that irrigation does. And here's a quote from AI that presumably came from one of those centers:
Closed-Loop Cooling Systems
Many data centers now use closed-loop liquid cooling, where water circulates continuously between servers and chillers:
- Once filled during construction, the system rarely needs fresh water.
- No evaporation means minimal water loss.
- Microsoft’s latest data centers, for example, use zero-water evaporation designs, saving over 125 million liters per year per facility.
Clearly it's no state secret that what Ruy Teixeira calls "the paradox of Trumpian overreach” and Democrats' radically and moronically overreacting to it continues to marginalize them with the American electorate.
One is reminded, fittingly, of the popular Road Runner cartoon where Wiley Coyote never quite catches on to being outsmarted and outmaneuvered and -- for all his devious scheming -- things repeatedly and lterally blow up in his face.
Texeira seems to believe midterm gains may nonetheless be inevitable for Democrats, and history is on his side where the party out of power is concerned. He may be right; gains, yes, but not control.
Voters are unlikely to turn the reins of power back to a party whose antics conjure up images of cartoonish characters; a party that reproves by its folly that there simply is no fixing stupid.
So the MAGA republican policies of climate change denial, election denial, oligarchic tax laws that reward the rich and take from the middle and lower class, should be the goal of democrats to compromise toward. Instead they are for legislation like a minimum wage higher than $7.45 an hour; (who can live on that?) Such an extreme “liberal” view will make them unelectable this article says. Wrong! It’s the compromise with the oligarchic GOP that since Reagan in 1980 has driven working people to MAGA in the hope that a strong man can change the system that has screwed them for so long. They haven’t yet realized that the strong man is a liar. Liberal legislation is what the country wants and needs, especially raising incomes so that inequality is reduced significantly. Income Equality is the only goal toward which Democrats should compromise.
Some liberal ideas are popular, e.g. universal health care so that no one has to fear medical bankruptcy and higher minimum wages. But the wokester Left controls the current Democratic party and enforces ideological orthodoxy on unpopular issues: open borders immigration, transgender mania (XY competing with XX), extreme DEI racial quotas, wacko prosecutors who minimize crime problems, etc.
Moderate Democrats cannot get nominated for dogcatcher in 2025, even if they would be winning general election candidates. Trump is not popular, but if Democrats keep insisting on out-crazying him they won't make any headway unless the economy gets very bad for a lot more people.
Like most supposedly popular government programs, support for implementing universal healthcare evaporates once people are asked if they are willing to pay more in taxes and/or give up their private health insurance to pay for it.
I cannot help but chuckle thinking that Democrats are my wife and Trump is me continuing to tell her "just settle down", and "get control of your emotions." Although possibly a complete rational and justified message, it would result in a possible murder (of me by my wife). However, with respect to political competition, Trump appears to be winning with this exact strategy.
It's not a 'paradox'--it's a deliberate strategy. Bannon called it 'flood the zone'.
Each day, you perform an act of blatant overreach. (or three, or four)
Each day, your critics point out your act(s) of overreach, and criticize you for overreaching.
After a few weeks of this you then begin saying "See? All my critics do is complain about everything. It's always just 'overreach here, overreach there', ad nauseum. They have nothing else but #resistance."
Improbably, you may even now get an assist from the Ruy's of the world, who will come along to say "Stop complaining about everything--it makes you look bad. Drop the 'resistance' angle."
It is a strategy that serves to produce one net outcome--and that is to normalize and excuse your overreach.
I'd ask every reader to ask themselves--would you accept this strategy if it were applied to a human being? Would you tell someone being attacked everyday by an abusive bully to resist less? Why not? Answering that question might help you see why many (not all, as there are some valid points made--but many) of the underlying premises of this article are quite flawed.
I completely agree with Ruy. The hard part personally is how to urge Democrats to follow Mr. Teixeira's ideas on how to oppose Trump extremism and venality while accepting adjustments to Biden policies that were needed on immigration, transsexuals and DEI without being "unfriended" by all the "progressives" I know.
It may take another six years, but the Democrat party is dead. They will lose seats in the 2026 midterms and they will lose the presidency in 2028 and that will be the end. They have nothing to offer the American people. They are just simply the party of a few identity, interest groups. They have no clue what is really going on in our country
Again, Republicans were saying this in 2004 and Democrats were saying it in 2012—along with Ruy.
I have found that the surest sign of a political implosion for either party is self-assured triumphalism, and it is notable that the GOP is as full of it these days as the DNC was during Obama’s second term.
"Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred."
Pretty easy to imagine this quote coming from Trump but it is actually from FDR. The problem with the Democrats is not so much the urban bubble they are in but it is that they have become The Establishment. This is especially hard for Boomers (and their Millennial children) to come to terms with.
Richard, in my substack today "Wen Trump Screws Up" I pointed out that the GOP in 1931-1945 really was in a similar position. They could not criticize anything FDR did because they would have been called anti-American and (even) pro-Axis. So they shut up and went along. When the war ended, they were in the minority, but were not viewed as anti-American, which is where the Ds are today. https://larrys.substack.com/p/when-trump-screws-up
1941? In the 30s there a substantial non-intervention movement that did get called pro-Axis after 1933. Lots of Republicans but also Democrats like Joe Kennedy. They all recanted after Pearl Harbor. FDR had been scheming to get involved in Europe but the war with Japan wasn't the one he wanted. Like everyone else, he underestimated Japan. In an incredible act of folly, Hitler declared war on the US. As near as I can tell, it was the only time he ever honored a treaty.
FDR was overwhelmingly popular, Larry. Trump is not.
Check Trump’s numbers with independents—the largest voting bloc, with the fastest-growing registration #’s—and please add a little rigor to your historical analysis, if you want it to be taken seriously.
Spot on. Dems have not amended their energy, immigration or child social engineering policies. A recent demonstration at Stanford Hospital, in Palo Alto, seemed to sum up Dem immigration policy quite clearly.
A 40 something year old wife, her husband and 2 kids entered the US from Mexico 3 years ago, utilizing Tourist Visas. Then they simply never went home. They enrolled the kids in school. The parents took jobs as a housekeeper and landscaper. When ICE recently arrived at their home, the otherwise healthy woman, appeared to be have a heart issue, and was taken to Stanford Hospital.
After extensive testing, and finding no serious health issues, the hospital kept her for observation. As she was in ICE custody, ICE barred all visitors, and posted a guard at the door. This led to a demonstration with protesters vilifying ICE and the Trump administration.
Like many, I feel for the family, especially the children, forced to leave a school they have attended for 3 years. However, the woman was not brought to the US as a child or trafficked against her will. By all accounts, she executed paperwork stating her family intended to visit the US, and then return to Mexico. The family chose not return. So 3 years later, with Tourist Visas long expired and illegally dwelling in the US, Trump and Americans who expect them to leave, as promised, are the villains? The issue becomes even more profound when one realizes the US issues some 8 -11 miillion tourist visas a year, or more.
Trump's election seemed to make clear, Americans believe we should control our borders. The parade at the border has ended, but current Dem policy is obviously, anyone nonviolent on US soil should be allowed to remain permanently, regardless of a lack of a valid asylum claim or the lack of economic self sufficiency.
Dems have avoided admitting the above, but their actions make the policy clear. If Reps are smart they will not only inform voters, but loudly and repeatedly, quantify the costs to American taxpayers. If Reps can accomplish that, Dems are going to have an even higher hill to climb, long before anyone discusses Green fantasies and children with male genitalia, occupying formally exclusive female spaces.
I have no doubt in my mind if the Dems regain power here we go again … uncontrolled illegal immigration, trans , ev mandates etc. They know what is good for us so they think
Did you consider the way you describe Trump and his actions are no different from those attitudes by Dems before the lost election? Your post is the SS:DD. How do you expect any Democrat to change or moderate when the words and attitudes they read do not? The Democrat’s woes have nothing to do with Trump. There could be the most moderate Republican President and the losing strategy and attitude by the Dems would persist. The silver lining is, it makes it easy to justify not voting for liberals.
I’ll add something: like him or not, Trump is changing things — quickly. For the last 30 years, the Democrats have smugly told us that “change has to be incremental.“ Then they bicker. And even their big bills are small and then falter.
The CHIPS act sounds big at $39 billion until you learn that Apple has been pouring more than $50 billion into China, EVERY YEAR, for many years (read Apple in China). Intel’s first factory was supposed to open in Ohio this year. It’s been delayed until 2030 or 2031. As far as I know, there are still no open facilities funded under the CHIPS Act (possibly one in the testing phase in Arizona). China has 6 million manufacturing facilities, with thousands opening since 2023. We don’t even have 5% of that number.
Dems orate about justice and equity and all kinds of Big Idea talking points, but at the end of the day, people slip further behind while they tell us that high prices all in our minds. Meanwhile, the few things they do manage to put into law are dominated by crazy ideas, like elevating unproven medical treatments to such a lofty height, a parent questioning gender ideology may lose custody of a child. Or prioritizing Section 8 housing for illegal immigrants while taxpayers sink deep down the list. Etc.
And then they announce that anyone voting against them is stupid. I say all this as a disgusted former lifelong Dem who went Independent after voting against Biden in the 2024 primaries.
Once again, Ruy, you kinda beat me to it. You have, without using my term, listed the "five D Civil Wars". The problem is a little simpler, however: so far the Democrats do not want to confront these issues in the party. No, it's not Ds vs. Trump. It's Ds vs. Crazy Ds.
As an R, of course, I am utterly thrilled with this. As a historian, I'm even happier because all indicators are that at the rate the D Party is shrinking, and given its inability to come to grips with ANY (let alone all) of these civil wars, I very seriously predict extinction by 2030 if not before. Yes, we have had numerous major parties go extinct (Federalists, Whigs, Populists, and most recently, Reform).
But, in being a good neighbor, I will throw out one area where so far the Trump administration hasn't been out in front (and that's very, very few areas): AI and WATER. A new D 21st century plan---a real plan---would be to embrace AI (cuz it's not going anywhere)---and to not only get on board with nukes, oil, and gas for POWER but get ahead of Trump on WATER and begin advocating desalinization plants. Cuz that's what it's gonna take.
Now, just for your latest morning jolt: R registration #s continue to grow. In NJ, in the last month Rs net gained 3,000 on Ds, or 43,000 since Nov. In NM, a small state where a few shifts can bring change, in July Rs net gained 600, August, 500. That is absolutely not negligible, putting NM on a path to (like PA and NC) flip completely red before 2028. (NC and PA will shift next year). NJ will be a swing state/tossup in 2028. And if the fed gubment continues to shrink & former bureaucrats leave NOVA? VA will also be a swing state by 2028.
Yoda: "Always in motion is the future." You are absolutely right that a war, strong inflation, etc. "could" change things. How much? Let's ask history: in 1857 the Whigs were dying. The Republican party was ascendant because it was the ONLY party willing to call slavery immoral, evil, and to try to make it extinct. But the Whigs were still around. Did the Panic help either the Ds or the Whigs? Nope. In fact, as I show in my book "Seven Events that Made America," the Panic of 1857 only convinced Democrats that slavery was needed moer than ever. So would a crisis help the Democrats? Only if they are offering a clear way OUT of said crisis. More government spending/bigger gubment=inflation. Nope, that won't work. More woke? No, that won't work. More green? That will increase energy prices, so that won't work. More Uke support? You get my drift. If NONE of your major policies are on the right side of 80/20, it still won't help you at the ballot boc.
And yes, NYSlimes stole my stuff. And they are still WAY behind reality. It's much worse than what the Times wrote.
The Democrats won't change their crazy wokester policies no matter what, and their economic policies would likely be counter-productive - make a bad situation even worse. But if economic conditions ever get bad during the Trump administration, Republicans will be blamed by most voters no matter who is actually responsible for the problem.
A large majority of voters believes in what I call the Magic Wand theory of Economics, explained as follows. Joe Dokes is President, and he has a Magic Wand that controls the economy. If Dokes is a benevolent and competent person, then he so waves the Magic Wand that prosperous conditions are created: low unemployment, low inflation, overall very prosperous. If Dokes is evil and/or incompetent, he so waves the Magic Wand that the result is dismal: high unemployment, high inflation, overall misery.
What Congress does or doesn't do are not even thought of. Even when there is divided government, most people blame the incumbent President for hard times. Most people don't much understand how the federal government is structured, and their knowledge of basic economics ranges from minimal to non-existent. My main point here is that if the economy goes bad, that factor will overwhelm all the Democratic craziness on open borders, DEI, transgenderism, etc. James Carville's phrase from 1992 is still true and probably always will be: "It's the economy, stupid."
I saw recently that the NY Times published a long article on the voter registration data that you often write about. Did they steal your ideas without attribution? ;)
If trends stayed static then voter registration data would be conclusive proof that the Democratic party is heading for irrelevancy, maybe even extinction. But events could easily overwhelm these current trends and result in Democratic dominance in Congress and the White House by 2032, even by 2028.
A serious recession would result in Democrats making major gains. That always happen to the Out party. A major uptick in inflation would crush GOP propects - as happened to the Harris 2024 campaign. Trump is trying to strongarm the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates (both short term and long term) by 3%. If the Fed actually did that the inflationary spiral would far exceed what happened under Biden - dooming Republicans.
The bottom line: the crystal ball for future election outcomes is - as always - very cloudy.
Because of that very cloudy crystal ball, many prefer to back into the future. At least they are looking at a clear past.
As usual, this take overlooks what happens to political movements based around strongmen when the strongmen leave the stage. They simply don’t survive.
The opposition that killed the Whigs was not based on a strongman figure. MAGA—and the current version of the Republican Party—is, and Trump simply doesn’t have the brains to orchestrate a proper succession plan.
Again, you sound very much like the Democrats right before 2016 rolled around, and Obama left the stage. Before pride goeth the fall.
I believe many are missing the swing Right all over the West. It is not just Trump or MAGA, whatever that is. We have been regular visitors to Europe for more than 30 years. Then, there was little crime anywhere in Western Europe except for few pickpockets in urban France and organized crime in southern Italy. Scandinavia and Germany felt like storybooks come to life. Tourists could spend a week looking for a piece of trash. London was prim, proper and pristine. Ditto for Switzerland, where everything worked like the proverbial Swiss watch.
One could start in Norway an hour outside the Arctic Circle, and visit every country West of France. Crime was unlikely to be a thought, until you saw the Eiffel Tower. Then the only concern was pickpockets, not violence.
That was just 3 decades ago, not 3 centuries. Of all of Western Europe, only Switzerland now feels remotely the same, and even Zurich is covered in graffiti.
The building art is hardly the first concern. Rapes have quadrupled in much of Western Europe in just 10 years. Similar increases over the next decade, would mean women unable to safely leave the house without a male escort, in Western Europe.
Much of the Continent, now feels perpetually on edge. PreCovid it did not seem savable, but now there is something in the air. Lousy governance can be shoved down citizen's throats for so long, before they regurgitate and seek air. That is what happened with Trump. It is the part Dems fail to comprehend most. Trump does not lead a cult, but a bunch of Americans who have had enough. Trump is the guy, in the right place, at the right time, who recognized people had reached their breaking points.
And that is what seems to be happening in Western Europe. England, France and Germany, Italy all have their own versions of Trump, many female. Globalism and mass migration have drastically diminished citizen living standards and their nation's character, all to enrich a few. And many Europeans have had enough.
There are only a few places in the U .S. where desalination plants would be cost effective as opposed to conservation and recycling of water. The main consumptive use in most places is for irrigation of crops, lawns, parks and golf courses, where there is plenty of room for cutting back without seriously impacting normal household and industrial uses other than lawn watering. So, this is not generally a winning issue for Democrats or anyone.
We aren't talking lawns. We are talking data centers that need half a million gallons just to start.
That’s trivial in relation to the water required for irrigation nationally, and particularly in the West. Also, I assume that most of the water used in data centers can be returned to the watershed and reused.
Absolutely wrong. This is ONE data center. Wait til there are thousands. But keep your head in the sand.
Far from having my head in the sand on water issues, I had a career dealing with them as a civil engineer, and apparently unlike you understand the difference between once-through use of water, closed-cycle use, and consumptive use. While I'm not an expert on data centers, I know that they don't actually "consume" much water in the way that irrigation does. And here's a quote from AI that presumably came from one of those centers:
Closed-Loop Cooling Systems
Many data centers now use closed-loop liquid cooling, where water circulates continuously between servers and chillers:
- Once filled during construction, the system rarely needs fresh water.
- No evaporation means minimal water loss.
- Microsoft’s latest data centers, for example, use zero-water evaporation designs, saving over 125 million liters per year per facility.
Clearly it's no state secret that what Ruy Teixeira calls "the paradox of Trumpian overreach” and Democrats' radically and moronically overreacting to it continues to marginalize them with the American electorate.
One is reminded, fittingly, of the popular Road Runner cartoon where Wiley Coyote never quite catches on to being outsmarted and outmaneuvered and -- for all his devious scheming -- things repeatedly and lterally blow up in his face.
Texeira seems to believe midterm gains may nonetheless be inevitable for Democrats, and history is on his side where the party out of power is concerned. He may be right; gains, yes, but not control.
Voters are unlikely to turn the reins of power back to a party whose antics conjure up images of cartoonish characters; a party that reproves by its folly that there simply is no fixing stupid.
So the MAGA republican policies of climate change denial, election denial, oligarchic tax laws that reward the rich and take from the middle and lower class, should be the goal of democrats to compromise toward. Instead they are for legislation like a minimum wage higher than $7.45 an hour; (who can live on that?) Such an extreme “liberal” view will make them unelectable this article says. Wrong! It’s the compromise with the oligarchic GOP that since Reagan in 1980 has driven working people to MAGA in the hope that a strong man can change the system that has screwed them for so long. They haven’t yet realized that the strong man is a liar. Liberal legislation is what the country wants and needs, especially raising incomes so that inequality is reduced significantly. Income Equality is the only goal toward which Democrats should compromise.
Some liberal ideas are popular, e.g. universal health care so that no one has to fear medical bankruptcy and higher minimum wages. But the wokester Left controls the current Democratic party and enforces ideological orthodoxy on unpopular issues: open borders immigration, transgender mania (XY competing with XX), extreme DEI racial quotas, wacko prosecutors who minimize crime problems, etc.
Moderate Democrats cannot get nominated for dogcatcher in 2025, even if they would be winning general election candidates. Trump is not popular, but if Democrats keep insisting on out-crazying him they won't make any headway unless the economy gets very bad for a lot more people.
Like most supposedly popular government programs, support for implementing universal healthcare evaporates once people are asked if they are willing to pay more in taxes and/or give up their private health insurance to pay for it.
Q.E.D.
I cannot help but chuckle thinking that Democrats are my wife and Trump is me continuing to tell her "just settle down", and "get control of your emotions." Although possibly a complete rational and justified message, it would result in a possible murder (of me by my wife). However, with respect to political competition, Trump appears to be winning with this exact strategy.
Ruy, here is just one more example. How many Democrats CHEERED this removal of 1,300 BARRELS of Fentanyl from Chy-na today? Oho? None?
That's because liberals want to be high on Fentanyl while they molest children in Pizza parlor basements. Less Fentanyl is such a buzz kill
It's not a 'paradox'--it's a deliberate strategy. Bannon called it 'flood the zone'.
Each day, you perform an act of blatant overreach. (or three, or four)
Each day, your critics point out your act(s) of overreach, and criticize you for overreaching.
After a few weeks of this you then begin saying "See? All my critics do is complain about everything. It's always just 'overreach here, overreach there', ad nauseum. They have nothing else but #resistance."
Improbably, you may even now get an assist from the Ruy's of the world, who will come along to say "Stop complaining about everything--it makes you look bad. Drop the 'resistance' angle."
It is a strategy that serves to produce one net outcome--and that is to normalize and excuse your overreach.
I'd ask every reader to ask themselves--would you accept this strategy if it were applied to a human being? Would you tell someone being attacked everyday by an abusive bully to resist less? Why not? Answering that question might help you see why many (not all, as there are some valid points made--but many) of the underlying premises of this article are quite flawed.
I completely agree with Ruy. The hard part personally is how to urge Democrats to follow Mr. Teixeira's ideas on how to oppose Trump extremism and venality while accepting adjustments to Biden policies that were needed on immigration, transsexuals and DEI without being "unfriended" by all the "progressives" I know.
It may take another six years, but the Democrat party is dead. They will lose seats in the 2026 midterms and they will lose the presidency in 2028 and that will be the end. They have nothing to offer the American people. They are just simply the party of a few identity, interest groups. They have no clue what is really going on in our country
Again, Republicans were saying this in 2004 and Democrats were saying it in 2012—along with Ruy.
I have found that the surest sign of a political implosion for either party is self-assured triumphalism, and it is notable that the GOP is as full of it these days as the DNC was during Obama’s second term.
Buttigieg sounds pretty good here on the Trans issue: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1dJhv14dSig
Really? What did he really say? Everyone has a point...we need to have empathy...the decision belongs to communities... Where exactly does he stand?