Over the past few weeks, two topics have been top of mind for many political and election observers: the continued poor standing of the Democratic Party (captured in several recent polls, which my colleague John Halpin covered well last week) and newly energized Republican efforts (and Democratic counter-efforts) to change congressional district maps mid-decade for a political edge in next year’s midterms.
It will be an issue for sure, but the legacy media lose influence every week. If those tariffs yield the gusher that Trump predicted and the media said wouldn't happen, it will be another body blow to their influence. We shall see.
Dems may win the battle, to lose the war. One would assume the inclination to impeach Trump yet again, if Dems take the House, will be strong. A conviction, which requires 2/3rds of the Senate is a mathematical impossibility.
Dems would successfully eat up much of Trump's final 2 years in office, but US voters appear to have lost patience with Democratic constant legal attacks. It is how Trump morphed a mug shot into a second presidential portrait.
Contingent on the economy and border, combine an impeachment that will surely fail, with NYC honest to God socialist/communist Mayor for 3 years, and 2028 may look OK for Reps, even if they lose the House in 2026.
The '28 presidential election will be about the economy, same as always. If the headline unemployment rate does anything but decline between March and June of 2028, the Democratic candidate will win at least the popular vote, notwithstanding my favorable assessment of J.D. Vance and my belief that the Democrats are highly vulnerable.
This "formula" has worked for every election since World War II, with only one unambiguous exception in 1956, when Eisenhower was re-elected despite an uptick that spring. Say what you will about James Carville, but he was correct in 1992: "It's about the economy, stupid." I am somewhat self contradictory about all this in my postings, but aren't we all? To quote the late, great Kinks: "Gotta stand and face it / Life is sooooo complicated."
Unmentioned in an otherwise very thorough if inconclusive analysis of Democrats' coming fortunes in next year's midterms is former House Speaker Tip O'Neill's (and others before him) admonition that "All politics is local."
Some of the same factors that came into play withTrump's delayed but historic second term may again factor into the GOP's 2026 again historic resurgence and Democrats' record fall in voter trust and support.
I refer of course to DJT's and the GOP's good fortunes built in large part upon the bad behavior of Democrats' strident, abusive, overreach in their resistance; fortunes likely to grow with the mounting evidence of criminal Democratic behavior in their attempted Russiagate ouster of Trump while circling the wagons around and covering up for a seriously cognitively compromised Joe Biden. A grand jury's criminal indictments would only cement this midterm boost for the GOP.
Democrats don't care to acknowledge, much less face, this dismal prospect. And so their bad behavior continues arrogantly and unabated.
You are very wrong. In this coming cycle all of the historical stuff that you mentioned is irrelevant. It is the people of this country. They’ll see the Democrat party for what it is worth. And it is worth nothing. It is bereft of ideas and all It can do is try to undermine Donald Trump. It’s agenda is being rejected daily by a good portion of Americans. The Republicans will not only keep the house they will gain three seats. In the Senate, the Republicans will gain two seats. And I also will take this opportunity to predict that in 2028 JDVance or Rubio will be elected president. The Democrat party is dead.
Nu-uh, you're wrong, it's the Republican party that's dead. History is irrelevant for the coming cycle, the Dems will win 80% of the legislature--and do so again and again, forever and ever, in perpetuity.
You may have numbers and data that say otherwise and you may write articles about these things, but they are all wrong, illusory, meaningless, because I have vibes. My vibes trump your articles. My vibes are truth. And my vibes are crazy positive right now.
This is intelligent political discourse. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
A very good and comprehensive analysis. I think the Dems are clear favorites to retake the House, but not shoo-ins. If they fail to do so, it will be a real disaster for them. It will presage another electoral defeat in 2028 at both the presidential and congressional levels. The "progressives" who run the Democratic Party, and their amen chorus in the media, will crank up the attacks on J.D. Vance, who IMO has a Reaganesque persona and will be much more formidable than they expect.
If things go badly for the Dems in the House in '26 the zeitgeist will favor the Republicans in '28, and that advantage will be heightened after the '30 census and reapportionment. We could see the dissolution and replacement of the Democratic Party, a la the Whigs by the Republicans in the 1850s. There is a great deal of dry rot in the "progresso-sphere." A strong wind -- MAGA being no tame breeze -- could blow it all down, especially given what's also happening to the legacy media. My favorite example of that would be last October, when no-budget podcaster Joe Rogan's interviews of Trump and Vance utterly CRUSHED the audience numbers of the worthies of 60 Minutes, et al.
We now see the Texas redistricting fight, which is generating threats from California. Well, if that explosion happens, watch out for Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, and note the Republican registration gains in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The trends within the states are running mostly in the Republicans' favor. Not even Minnesota and New York are entirely safe.
All in all, I think the '26 off-year elections will be as critical as the 1894 off-year was for the Republicans in Congress and the 1934 and 1936 elections were for the Democrats. We could see the return of the 1868-1916 era, when Grover Cleveland was the only Democratic president for 48 years, his second term a fizzle on account of the Panic of 1893. Populism? Hmm, did populist opposition to the gold standard elect William Jennings Bryan in 1896?
Do any Democrats understand how high the stakes really are? I wonder. If they don't retake the House next year -- and maybe even if they do, but especially if they don't -- they are looking at an 8-1 Supreme Court and a VERY LONG period in the wilderness. If it happens, they will have no one to blame but themselves for allowing their "progressive" wing to take over and steer the whole shebang straight off a high cliff onto the rocks so far below.
p.s.: With respect to the North Carolina senate race, better watch out for a curveball aimed straight at Roy Cooper.
Inside baseball won't rebuild the party. What is needed is a Democratic version of the Contract with America and The Groups had better not win the definitional battle.
I'm not seeing a Democratic Newt Gingrich out there. Keep in mind that in 1994, the GOP was in real shock over Bill Clinton having come out of Arkansas (!!) to steal "their" presidency, their realignment. Gingrich was a Hail Mary pass that worked. Today's Democratic Party is chock full of arrogant "progressive" poli sci majors who do nothing but trip over each other. Even if there was a Dem Gingrich, the party's insiders wouldn't stand for it.
You forget the other important advantage the Democrats have - the 100% tongue bath the media will give their candidates.
It will be an issue for sure, but the legacy media lose influence every week. If those tariffs yield the gusher that Trump predicted and the media said wouldn't happen, it will be another body blow to their influence. We shall see.
Dems may win the battle, to lose the war. One would assume the inclination to impeach Trump yet again, if Dems take the House, will be strong. A conviction, which requires 2/3rds of the Senate is a mathematical impossibility.
Dems would successfully eat up much of Trump's final 2 years in office, but US voters appear to have lost patience with Democratic constant legal attacks. It is how Trump morphed a mug shot into a second presidential portrait.
Contingent on the economy and border, combine an impeachment that will surely fail, with NYC honest to God socialist/communist Mayor for 3 years, and 2028 may look OK for Reps, even if they lose the House in 2026.
The '28 presidential election will be about the economy, same as always. If the headline unemployment rate does anything but decline between March and June of 2028, the Democratic candidate will win at least the popular vote, notwithstanding my favorable assessment of J.D. Vance and my belief that the Democrats are highly vulnerable.
This "formula" has worked for every election since World War II, with only one unambiguous exception in 1956, when Eisenhower was re-elected despite an uptick that spring. Say what you will about James Carville, but he was correct in 1992: "It's about the economy, stupid." I am somewhat self contradictory about all this in my postings, but aren't we all? To quote the late, great Kinks: "Gotta stand and face it / Life is sooooo complicated."
Unmentioned in an otherwise very thorough if inconclusive analysis of Democrats' coming fortunes in next year's midterms is former House Speaker Tip O'Neill's (and others before him) admonition that "All politics is local."
Some of the same factors that came into play withTrump's delayed but historic second term may again factor into the GOP's 2026 again historic resurgence and Democrats' record fall in voter trust and support.
I refer of course to DJT's and the GOP's good fortunes built in large part upon the bad behavior of Democrats' strident, abusive, overreach in their resistance; fortunes likely to grow with the mounting evidence of criminal Democratic behavior in their attempted Russiagate ouster of Trump while circling the wagons around and covering up for a seriously cognitively compromised Joe Biden. A grand jury's criminal indictments would only cement this midterm boost for the GOP.
Democrats don't care to acknowledge, much less face, this dismal prospect. And so their bad behavior continues arrogantly and unabated.
You are very wrong. In this coming cycle all of the historical stuff that you mentioned is irrelevant. It is the people of this country. They’ll see the Democrat party for what it is worth. And it is worth nothing. It is bereft of ideas and all It can do is try to undermine Donald Trump. It’s agenda is being rejected daily by a good portion of Americans. The Republicans will not only keep the house they will gain three seats. In the Senate, the Republicans will gain two seats. And I also will take this opportunity to predict that in 2028 JDVance or Rubio will be elected president. The Democrat party is dead.
Nu-uh, you're wrong, it's the Republican party that's dead. History is irrelevant for the coming cycle, the Dems will win 80% of the legislature--and do so again and again, forever and ever, in perpetuity.
You may have numbers and data that say otherwise and you may write articles about these things, but they are all wrong, illusory, meaningless, because I have vibes. My vibes trump your articles. My vibes are truth. And my vibes are crazy positive right now.
This is intelligent political discourse. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
What y'all been smokin ?
A very good and comprehensive analysis. I think the Dems are clear favorites to retake the House, but not shoo-ins. If they fail to do so, it will be a real disaster for them. It will presage another electoral defeat in 2028 at both the presidential and congressional levels. The "progressives" who run the Democratic Party, and their amen chorus in the media, will crank up the attacks on J.D. Vance, who IMO has a Reaganesque persona and will be much more formidable than they expect.
If things go badly for the Dems in the House in '26 the zeitgeist will favor the Republicans in '28, and that advantage will be heightened after the '30 census and reapportionment. We could see the dissolution and replacement of the Democratic Party, a la the Whigs by the Republicans in the 1850s. There is a great deal of dry rot in the "progresso-sphere." A strong wind -- MAGA being no tame breeze -- could blow it all down, especially given what's also happening to the legacy media. My favorite example of that would be last October, when no-budget podcaster Joe Rogan's interviews of Trump and Vance utterly CRUSHED the audience numbers of the worthies of 60 Minutes, et al.
We now see the Texas redistricting fight, which is generating threats from California. Well, if that explosion happens, watch out for Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, and note the Republican registration gains in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The trends within the states are running mostly in the Republicans' favor. Not even Minnesota and New York are entirely safe.
All in all, I think the '26 off-year elections will be as critical as the 1894 off-year was for the Republicans in Congress and the 1934 and 1936 elections were for the Democrats. We could see the return of the 1868-1916 era, when Grover Cleveland was the only Democratic president for 48 years, his second term a fizzle on account of the Panic of 1893. Populism? Hmm, did populist opposition to the gold standard elect William Jennings Bryan in 1896?
Do any Democrats understand how high the stakes really are? I wonder. If they don't retake the House next year -- and maybe even if they do, but especially if they don't -- they are looking at an 8-1 Supreme Court and a VERY LONG period in the wilderness. If it happens, they will have no one to blame but themselves for allowing their "progressive" wing to take over and steer the whole shebang straight off a high cliff onto the rocks so far below.
p.s.: With respect to the North Carolina senate race, better watch out for a curveball aimed straight at Roy Cooper.
https://archive.is/3WML6
Inside baseball won't rebuild the party. What is needed is a Democratic version of the Contract with America and The Groups had better not win the definitional battle.
I'm not seeing a Democratic Newt Gingrich out there. Keep in mind that in 1994, the GOP was in real shock over Bill Clinton having come out of Arkansas (!!) to steal "their" presidency, their realignment. Gingrich was a Hail Mary pass that worked. Today's Democratic Party is chock full of arrogant "progressive" poli sci majors who do nothing but trip over each other. Even if there was a Dem Gingrich, the party's insiders wouldn't stand for it.
It's a given with only three seats to flip and media negativity of 'Trump Dictator"; Sure shot here.