Over the weekend, millions of Americans took to the streets to air their concerns about Trump’s second term—specifically, what they view as his creeping authoritarianism. They see the normalization of the military in the streets, the detention of U.S. citizens without due process by ICE, pressure campaigns by federal bureaucrats that violate the First Amendment, and the usurpation of more powers by Trump that are clearly not authorized by the Constitution. They also recall his previous musings that he may not be obligated to uphold the Constitution and how he pushed to overturn the results of the 2020 election after he lost. Through it all, many see a president who, though democratically elected, now wants to shed most or all restraints on his power.
Yet, even with this display of civic fervor, these protests are unlikely to fundamentally change the landscape for Trump’s opponents in the Democratic Party.
For more than a decade, Democrats’ strategy for dealing with Trump has largely been to oppose him often and everywhere. From the #Resistance of his first term to Joe Biden’s “restore the soul of the nation” message in 2020 to Kamala Harris’s “protect democracy” rhetoric, opposition to Trump has been at the center of Democrats’ identity, often at the expense of any clear vision of their own. Even after losing to him again in 2024, the party’s gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia this year are still making Trump a central part of their campaigns.
While it’s possible that anti-Trump sentiment could boost Democrats in these fall elections—especially in Virginia—it is also evident that this strategy has diminishing returns. Despite employing anti-Trump and “protect democracy” messaging for years, the party hasn’t exactly improved its standing with the public. They have also failed to dilute his base of support or decisively turn the public against him. It’s worth remembering that, but for a global pandemic, Trump likely would have won again in 2020.
Trump’s second-term approval rating has come down from its post-inauguration high, but Democrats have not been the beneficiary of this. Instead, they continue to suffer from their own abysmal ratings—worse than even those of Trump or the Republicans—including among independents. And though doubling down on anti-Trump and “threats to democracy” rhetoric might rouse the party’s base, there is ample evidence that swing voters and others simply aren’t moved by it.
In a recent interview with the New York Times, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake remarked, “I worry that Donald Trump is like crack cocaine for our party,” a short-term hit that distracts them from searching for longer-term recovery solutions. The post-Trump era is coming sooner than Democrats may think, and if they hope to avoid continued electoral woes, they must figure out how to break this addiction and start thinking about their longer-term vision for the country. They might begin by returning to their roots on two issues: health care and economic inequality.
Though shutting down the government rarely pays dividends for the party that instigates it, Democrats were at least wise to use health care as their motivation. Not only is it one of the few issues on which Americans currently trust congressional Democrats over Republicans to handle, but a recent KFF poll found that big majorities support an extension of Obamacare subsidies—the issue at the center of the shutdown fight. This includes even significant majorities of Republicans generally (59 percent) and MAGA Republicans, specifically (57 percent). Moreover, if the subsidies are not extended and premiums go up, the public is ready to blame Republicans and President Trump more than Democrats.
However, as my colleague Ruy Teixeira recently wrote, homing in on the health care issue is likely necessary but not sufficient to a Democratic renaissance. Voters want to know how the party will lead an America that includes “a way forward for themselves, their families, their communities and their nation that would restore American purpose and dynamism in a chaotic, populist age.” Beyond simply a policy fix or two, Democrats desperately need a positive vision.
One way they might pursue this on health care is by reaching back to their Obama-era call for achieving affordable, universal coverage, acknowledging that the Affordable Care Act was an important first step but that there’s still work to do. Recent Gallup data showed that one-third of Americans are unable to access affordable, quality care, and fully 62 percent believe it is the responsibility of the federal government to ensure that all citizens are covered—the highest figure since 2007.
Not only does tackling health costs and access address a pressing policy issue, but it also strikes at a core issue in America right now: many people feel insecure. Though Trump has maintained a consistent advantage on other issues related to feelings of security like immigration and crime, health care gives Democrats a chance to go on the offensive and reframe themselves to a skeptical electorate. A broader vision for fixing health care insecurity would likely appeal to both the party’s base and beyond it.
Another issue that could help Democrats meet this populist moment is economic inequality. Since the pandemic, voters have routinely cited the economy and cost-of-living issues as among their biggest concerns, and they were a pivotal reason why Trump won a second time. Yet, since coming back to office, Trump has done very little to fix those issues—and plenty to exacerbate them—with voters increasingly souring on his approach.
Because inflation worsened under President Biden, Americans may be less inclined to take Democrats’ criticisms of Trump at face value there. But the party might have some room to maneuver when talking about inequality, an issue they have spoken about eloquently in the recent past. Many voters in 2024, including Republicans and independents, identified it as an important factor in their vote and said it was among the top issues they wanted Trump to tackle during his first 100 days in office. Nagging inflation has only made matters worse, as wealthier Americans continue to spend freely while lower-income families have been forced to pull back. At a time when a majority of the country continues to see the GOP as the party of the rich, Democrats have another opening here for reconnecting with the common man and woman.
Pivoting to issues that everyday Americans care about may be a difficult task at a time when Trump has made himself a constant presence in daily life. Moreover, as he pushes for more power in his second term, many Democratic voters have increasingly demanded that their leaders fight him harder. So far, the latter has largely obliged.
To some extent, of course, the minority party does have a role to play as the loyal opposition. But for a party that surely wants to become more competitive at the national level in the years ahead, they will eventually need far more than resistance—likely sooner than later.
Editor’s note: A version of this essay originally appeared in UnHerd. Michael’s series on the New Jersey and Virginia elections will resume next week.
Yes, inequality would be a strong stance, but the No Kings march seemed to be mostly affluent people unconcerned about anything but DJT.
Running candidates like Jay Jones in Virginia does not help.
Health care is a winning issue, and one of the few issues I agree with the Democrats on. (As the libertarian John Cochrane put it, cross-subsidies are the original sin of healthcare). But even there, I wouldn't trust the current Democratic leadership to create a better healthcare system, even though the bar is shockingly low. It would be like the Green New Deal and turn into graft and six figure jobs to absorb the surplus of elite overproduction.
The Democrat's focus on inequality - as opposed to poverty - is simply morally wrong. The Democrats are like a rural peasant farming community in the developing world (Banfield etc.). As soon as one person starts to get ahead, the community feels threatened and pulls him back to the pack by demanding make-work jobs, "loans", and gifts. The Democrats should be celebrating success and the creation of wealth, but temper that with the realization that although capitalism creates winners, it also creates losers. If AI is going to wipe out a bunch of jobs, let's have programs to ease people through the transition to a new career. (And by the way, does anything reveal the myopia of Democratic central planning that "learn to code" was a thing right up until AI threatened to take away the coding jobs?).