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Larry Schweikart's avatar

Again, fundamental flaws in the analysis. 1) There is a massive, and I mean massive shift going on to the Trump MAGA Republicans. Every state, and often, almost EVERY COUNTY is seeing these shifts. 2) Early voting in VA, AZ, and NC show that 20% of the R voters have never voted before, thus they are adding to the GOP. 3) The Democrats are now stuck as the party of war. This will not work well with the young, whether college or non-college. Polls show Trump gaining significantly in this group. He doesn't lead yet, but has closed. J.D. Vance is an even bigger appeal to them. 4) The Trump RFK coalition now appeals to a wide range of Libertarian-leaning voters. Backing crypto, easing penalties on marijuana, and insisting on work for AMERICAN employees will continue to siphon them off. 5) The long safe black and Hispanic blocks of D voters are gone. This may well be a 1932 election for blacks, who stayed with Hoover one last time, then bolted for the Democrats. Trump is getting 20% of blacks in almost every survey. It won't be that small next time. Only single black women (like all single women who see government as daddy) will remain past 2028. 6) In addition to the war issue, Democrats cannot win the woke/trans issues. This simply is repulsive to most Americans, and dangerously so if it comes to their schools. What happened in VA (where the GOP is performing a levels not seen since Reagan in early voting) and FL will quickly expand nation-wide. 7) Finally, the tech/green block is shattering. New tech needs a grid. Solar and wind can't do it, and Democrats are wedded to these ancient technologies. Only nuclear power (which Democrats completely oppose) can provide the grid tech needs. Hence, Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are just the tip of the iceberg of tech support that will move away from green and to silicon.

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Carlton S.'s avatar

The only way that I can imagine either party genuinely adopting centrist policies is with widespread adoption of approval voting or ranked choice voting, which will give centrist candidates a chance of making it to the general election and winning. Even a relative handful of centrists in Congress could have a lot of influence as swing votes on the many partisan issues.

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