The Left-Flank Albatross
New research sheds more light on the Democrats’ perception problem.
A burning question coming out of this year’s presidential election was why Kamala Harris’s efforts to fashion herself as a moderate candidate didn’t seem to land with much of the public. As we wrote shortly after the election, these struggles likely stemmed from her inability—or unwillingness—to forcefully rebuke and distance herself from her past unpopular positions on hot-button issues, such as favoring decriminalizing border crossings, abolishing private health insurance, and defunding the police.
Two new surveys now offer even more context to this question, and they point to a similar conclusion: voters perceived Harris and the Democrats as too liberal, and this probably hurt them politically.
In its post-election survey, the think tank Third Way asked voters to place themselves, Harris, and Donald Trump on an ideological scale ranging from 1 (most liberal) to 10 (most conservative) to discern which of the candidates the voters were more aligned with. On average, respondents gave Harris a score of 2.5 and Trump a score of 7.8. As for themselves, the average voter had a score of 5.6, placing them 2.2 points apart from Trump and 3.1 points from Harris—nearly a full point difference.1
The survey also asked voters to give a word or two to describe Harris and Trump as candidates. Though many of them ascribed positive attributes to Harris, including that she was strong, intelligent, and qualified, the term they most associated with her was “liberal.” Others also included “liar” and “fake,” both of which touch on a related problem for her: to the extent she tried to outrun her past positions, it wasn’t seen as credible or sincere.
Another study, however, shows that Democrats’ ideology problem may have been rooted in more than just Harris’s own past actions and statements. The group More In Common, which examines trends around polarization and misperceptions in politics, found that voters perceive the average Democratic voter to be more left-wing than they often are. One way to demonstrate this is by examining issue priorities. Nearly half (49 percent) of all voters identified inflation as their top issue, followed by the economy (32 percent) and immigration (27 percent). When asked how they perceived the priorities of the two parties, voters associated all three of those issues with the Republicans. By contrast, they didn’t believe any of the issues were among Democrats’ top priorities, even though 40 percent of Democrats—a plurality—were foremost concerned about inflation. Instead, the perception was that the party cared most about social issues like abortion, LGBT issues, and climate change.
Why the disconnect between what many Democrats actually cared about and what the public perceived? There are a couple of seemingly obvious reasons. Democratic voters did cite abortion, specifically, as a top issue, though it was tied with healthcare for a distant second (29 percent) behind inflation. Additionally, Harris herself talked throughout the campaign—and especially in the homestretch—about abortion as much as any other issue, hoping to press her advantage over Trump.
But the study also found that many voters believed the views of the Democrats’ most liberal wing—a faction More In Common refers to as “Progressive Activists”—reflected those of the average Democrat as well. Indeed, a plurality (39 percent) of Progressive Activists cited climate change and abortion as the two most important issues in the election. Meanwhile, they appeared to deem immigration and the economy, voters’ top issues, less important.
Additionally, over a third (34 percent) of voters—including a whopping 56 percent of Republicans—believed that LGBT issues were the Democrats’ second-highest priority behind only abortion. In reality, only nine percent of Democrats ranked these issues as a top priority, placing them among their bottom three issues overall. However, more than one in five Progressive Activists (or 21 percent) prioritized them.
Past research from More In Common has shown that Progressive Activists hold much more left-wing views than the public at large on several issues as well. For example, nearly everyone in this faction says they have “no doubts” about the prevalence of white privilege and sexism in America. Compared to the average American, they are also three times more likely to say that people’s outcomes result from “luck and circumstance” (75 percent vs. 25 percent), almost three times more likely to be “ashamed to be an American” (69 percent vs. 24 percent), and far more likely to say they are proud of their political ideology (64 percent vs. 43 percent).
Progressive Activists are also among the most politically engaged groups in American society, meaning their views are more present (and often louder) in public life than those of other groups. In a highly polarized country like ours, voters may necessarily attribute this faction’s policy preferences and moral attitudes to the party closest to them on the ideological spectrum.
All this presents a conundrum for the Democrats moving forward. As the party’s base comprises a greater share of college-educated whites who are often more liberal than the country as a whole, especially on social issues, its center of gravity is shifting further leftward—and away from the median voter. Gallup polling shows that although the share of liberals in the U.S. is growing, they are still a far smaller group (26 percent) than moderates (35 percent) and conservatives (36 percent). Third Way found something similar in its survey of the 2024 electorate:
The American electorate has long leaned more conservative than liberal, with a plurality of voters describing themselves as moderate. This ideological asymmetry means that Democratic presidential campaigns can only win if they woo a supermajority of moderate voters…Harris did win moderates [in our survey], but only by a 10-point margin—52 percent to 42 percent. That simply wasn’t enough to win an election as a Democrat in this center-right country.
Regardless of whether voter perceptions about the Democratic Party in this election were influenced by the left flank, Harris’s past statements and unconvincing pivots along these lines appear to have weighed the party down.
Of course, liberals deserve representation too, and it’s completely fair to be concerned about issues like abortion, climate change, and minority rights. But winning in politics requires meeting voters where they are and catering to the issues they care most about. Harris and her team may protest that they tried to make the economy a central focus of her campaign, downplay hot-button topics, and employ tough rhetoric about the southern border, but none of it resonated with the voters they needed most. As the party moves forward, it must grapple with this reality and learn from it if they are to repair their image and chart a new path.
As Third Way analysts explained, “While a one-point difference may not seem significant, these ratings are like a Richter scale, so when voters put themselves that much closer to Trump, it’s an indication of a real problem for Democrats.”
Voters perceived Harris and Dems as too liberal? Harris and Dems are too liberal. Until 100 days before the election, Harris supported the de facto legalization of drug dealing and use, so felony convictions would not trigger deportations.
Harris has supported the banning of fracking, EV mandates, and the end of ICE.engines in 10 years. She demanded transgender surgery, at taxpayer expense, for convicted prisoners and the undocumented, as well as young children.
Kamala authored legislation that removed incarceration, as possible punishment, for thefts under $950 in CA, per instance. The next time it takes 20 minutes to buy toothpaste at CVS, because it is locked up like nuclear material, thank Harris. Harris has championed bail reform, and en mass, early prison release. As a DA in SF, she refused to charge the death penalty and to charge minors as adults, even for the most heinous crimes.
Reps, actually, did a very poor job, of describing just how liberal Harris has been, her entire career. She viewed he SF DA and CA AG jobs as mostly ceremonial. Harris was, by far, the most liberal Presidential candidate in US history, before Dems opened the border, and waved in 10 million, unvetted migrants. Dems do not have a perception problem. They have a policy problem.
The canary in the coal mine is Seth Moulton. Democratic congressman from MA, so a safe district. He got a lot of pushback from the Left for saying he didn't want his daughters to be run over by transgender athletes. Local officials in his hometown of Salem engaged in a witch hunt and were supported by other officials including the governor. There is talk of a primary challenge. If that gains traction, the entire premise of this substack is in question.