The Time Is Now

Democratic primary battle lines in Texas and Illinois sharpen ahead of the midterms.

MAGA warriors are apt to taunt their less fervent GOP allies with the question, “Do you know what time it is?” Democrats implicitly face the question from their aggressively progressive wing, which accuses the leadership of insufficient courage and ingenuity in fighting Trump. Early primaries in Texas and Illinois will provide a big clue as to how the Democratic primary electorate is reading the clock.

The Texas Senate Democratic primary is the first big race to watch. Party grandees make little secret that they prefer State Representative James Talarico. The former Presbyterian seminarian regularly invokes his faith and fuses Christian principles and imagery into his appeal. In a state known for its Republican tilt and strong religiosity, it’s no wonder many establishment Democrats think Talarico is the party’s best bet to flip the seat.

The trouble is that Democratic voters may not see it the same way. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett has made a name for herself in recent years with a highly aggressive, progressive persona online and in progressive-dominated media like MS NOW. A party swiftly moving to the left, and one that seems to value fighting more than results, could easily choose her in March 3rd’s contest.

Then there are the racial dynamics. Talarico is reeling from accusations that he called former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, a “mediocre black man.” Allred, who dropped out of the Senate race after Crockett entered and is now contending to regain his old House seat, has endorsed Crockett and dismisses Talarico’s explanations and denials. Crockett, who is black, seems all too happy to see her foe’s campaign in trouble.

Both candidates enter the final month with over $6 million in the bank, more than enough to battle it out on the airwaves even in Texas’s diffuse and expensive media markets. Crockett’s large advantage with black voters, who should cast about 20-25 percent of the primary ballots, might prove to be decisive if she can combine that strength with support from the party’s most progressive elements.

Republicans, who might be saddled with embattled and controversial Attorney General Ken Paxton as their nominee, would surely rather face Crockett than Talarico. If that matchup happens, the Texas race will likely be a test case of the progressive theory that an aggressive style and unapologetic views can win by increasing turnout.

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The congressional primaries in Illinois may hold even greater significance in the ongoing struggle for the party’s identity. Five Chicago-area seats are open due to retirements or attempts to run for Senate. The winners in those ultra-safe districts will be indicative of which wing of the party is ascendant.

Primary rules in Illinois should boost the chances of ultra-progressive candidates. That’s because the winner only needs a plurality of votes to become the nominee and hence the next congressmember. Progressives don’t need to appeal to the party’s establishment or shrinking moderate wings; they only need to mobilize the faithful to be in the running to prevail.

The Hispanic-dominated 4th Congressional District has no primary because incumbent Rep. Chuy Garcia waited until the end of the filing deadline to declare he wasn’t running. That sneaky maneuver allowed his Chief of Staff, Patty Garcia, to file and run unopposed (some furious Democrats have filed to run as independents against her in the general election). The others, however, all feature multi-candidate mashups that make the proverbial clown car look like a highly disciplined Formula One racing team.

The race to succeed Rep. Robin Kelly in the Chicago South Side-dominated 2nd Congressional District is typical. Ten Democrats, including former Rep. and convicted felon Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., are vying to head to Washington. The race nonetheless seems to be boiling down to a classic progressive versus establishment showdown between the two with the most cash on hand, State Sen. Robert Peters and Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller.

Peters sports the endorsements of progressive icon Sen. Bernie Sanders along with a host of local leaders and unions. He also represents about 11 percent of the seat’s population, and surely much more of the Democratic primary electorate given the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of his seat. If he can run up the score in his backyard and attract progressives elsewhere, he should easily be able to get close to a third of the vote.

Miller sports an impressive array of local endorsements and has more cash on hand for the final months. Her local district, however, is based entirely in the suburbs and contains none of Chicago. She likely will need to win big among the Democrats in the largely Republican and rural counties that the Democratic gerrymander attached to this seat to have a shot.

Thirteen Democrats are campaigning to succeed retiring Rep. Danny Davis in a 7th Congressional District seat that attaches the heavily black West Side of Chicago with racially mixed suburbs. There is a strong progressive running, Reed Showalter. His website features him wearing a “free Palestine” button and pledges to reject funding from corporate PACs and the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC. With only a bit over $250,000 raised through 2025, though, he likely does not have the resources to prevail even in such a heavily divided field.

Most of the other candidates are establishment black politicians, with State Rep. La Shawn Ford and Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Evans having raised enough money to effectively compete. Ford also sports Davis’s endorsement, which, combined with his own representation of about 10 percent of the district, likely makes him a slight favorite.

Two relatively moderate outsiders, however, threaten to shake the race up. Dr. Thomas Fisher, a black ER physician, has raised over $600,000 and has been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune. But that amount of money pales in comparison with the $1.8 million white businessman Jason Friedman has pulled in. Friedman is running on a clearly moderate platform, emphasizing job creation, education, and fighting crime in a platform that seems tailor-made for the suburban part of this seat.

It would be shocking to see Friedman win this historically black seat, one that remains 45 percent black by citizen voting-age population and likely much more than that in a Democratic primary. The crowded field, though, means anything could happen.

The other two seats offer clear establishment versus progressive storylines. The 8th Congressional District race has eight candidates, five of whom have raised over $500,000. But the two money leaders, former Rep. Melissa Bean and Junaid Ahmed, occupy clear ideological lanes that mark them as the putative frontrunners.

Bean is trying to return to the descendant of a seat she surprisingly lost in the 2010 Republican wave. Back then, she was an outspoken moderate and a leader in the Blue Dog and New Democrat coalitions. She has since held executive positions in Chicago-area business and financial organizations. She remains staunchly in the establishment lane, featuring endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Sen. Tammy Duckworth.

Ahmed is the polar opposite in terms of backing and emphasis. The campaign video on his website calls him a “progressive fighter” and features pictures of people wearing buttons proclaiming “Medicare for All” and a house with a “Green New Deal Now” sign. He’s been endorsed by progressive leaders Reps. Ro Khanna and Pramila Jayapal, along with Justice Democrats and Our Revolution.

A multi-candidate race with many significant competitors is always unpredictable. An Ahmed win in this entirely suburban seat, however, would send a clear signal that the rise of the left is not confined to urban or university enclaves.

Finally, the 9th Congressional District’s outcome will receive outsized national attention for two reasons: the importance of AIPAC and Israeli-Gaza policy and the presence of 26-year-old ultra-progressive internet influencer Kat Abughazaleh.

This fifteen-person race has a number of potential spoilers, such as State Senator Michael Simmons and State Rep. Hoan Huynh. Simmons’s senate seat, grounded in northern Chicago, includes 22 percent of the district’s population, a formidable base with which to start. But he’s only raised $324,000, only the 8th most in this expensive race. He would have to hope that the other, better-funded candidates cut themselves up and allow his residual name identification in his home region to propel him to a narrow and unconvincing win.

Huynh has much more money—over $1 million—but a much smaller regional base, as his state house seat only includes 8 percent of the district. He also lacks a clear ideological profile or a list of nationally prominent endorsements. His hope rests on an even slimmer reed than Simmons, likely hoping that he can do well in his home area and among the 12 percent of citizen-voting age adults who are of Asian ancestry.

The consensus and the limited polling to date hold that this is a three-person race between the top fundraisers: progressive Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, State Senator Laura Fine, and Abughazaleh. Each has raised over $1.9 million, with Abughazaleh leading the way with an amazing $2.7 million. They have done so using very different approaches, however, differences that could matter as they race down the home stretch.

Biss has been heavily dependent upon very large donors. His campaign finance statements list 373 donors who have contributed at least $2,000 for a total of $1.16 million, 58 percent of his total contributions. People who gave at least $1,000 added an additional $490,000 to that. How many of these large donors will give more, and how many other large donors can Biss find before Election Day?

Abughazaleh, on the other hand, has raised nearly $1.9 million from unitemized receipts—people who give in such small amounts that their names do not need to be legally reported. That small-dollar donor base comes from progressive activists all around the country and is likely to continue as the race heads to the finish line.

Fine straddles the two candidates, with very few unitemized contributions but many fewer large donors than Biss. She also starts with the largest geographic base, with about a quarter of the district within her senate seat, although she shares much of that with Evanston’s Biss. She nonetheless has an asset neither of her major foes does: substantial outside support from pro-Israel donors. They might keep giving until primary day, especially since Abughazaleh, a Palestinian-American, has called for recognition of a Palestinian state.

Polls show this is anybody’s race. Fine released an internal poll this week showing her tied with Biss at 21 percent, with Abughazaleh third at 14 percent. That’s within the margin of error and comes before any of Abughazaleh’s ads have run on television.

Pro-Israel outside groups also seem to have just launched a major outside ad buy for Fine, Bean, and Miller. The Jewish Insider notes that each of their major opponents has either condemned Israel’s war in Gaza or called for a ban on the sales of offensive weapons to the Jewish state.

We thus have the lines drawn in the early primaries. Will the establishment hold on, or will the rising tide of the left sweep all before it? Either way, the clock toward decision day is ticking fast.