As you guys know, I discount polls including the recent one showing Trump at 50%.
I thought Ds were starting to turn it around in PA when, for 2 straight reports, they made minimal gains there . . . but nope. Back to GOP gains yet again, suggesting internal pushes for registration. The idiotic "jungle primary" scheme to perpetually elect Ds in CA is backfiring now, with the top two in the governor's race according to "ahem" polls being Rs. After pruning MN of 13,000 illegals, Trump moved out, but the deportations continue at record pace. I know you don't like to hear it but yes, many of these people vote, and no, they won't be voting D any more. Let's say it's "only" 50% who vote, so with 3.5m gone in just 14 mo., the Ds have nationally lost another 1.7 million off their rolls, not even mentioning the continued D-R or D-I registration shifts in every state we can track. Loosely, this translates to another 2m net Rs (or 2m fewer Ds) than just 14 months ago.
Somehow, Rs have hung on since Nov. to win 4/7 special elections, though the one in TX got all the media.
And despite the Supes ruling, the economy is starting to really heat up again. I maintain my prediction that Rs hold the House by 2-5, add a NH seat in the Senate. And J.D. Vance is still on my scorecard at 320 EVs in 2028, but as I'm sure you've noticed there is a three-way battle for the D nomination among Newsome, Mamdani, and Harris. I don't know why Ds don't like Newsome, but apparently they don't, and 30% love the Amazing Zohran and wouldn't care what the constitution says about nominating him. I think this explains the recent Harris push---she is the only one capable of NOT being blown out (but would still lose).
I'm from California and I think I understand why so many don't like Newsom. He's fake. He has no deep beliefs. Any that he might have professed would be dropped in an instant if they didn't poll well.
Agreed. I think 2026 will be a bloodbath and the economy will have to be strong for the Republicans to win in 2028. This is an anti-incumbent era.
But I also think that voter registrations and the realignment is real. Gen Z is far more conservative than the millennials. The Democrats are going to lose, but it will take fifteen years.
"And despite the Supes ruling, the economy is starting to really heat up again. I maintain my prediction that Rs hold the House by 2-5, add a NH seat in the Senate."
I hereby tag this statement as an acid test of Larry's fervent quantitative analyses. Let this November and the House margin be his day in the sun, or the day he is forever consigned to a lesser version of that 'fix the polls' crank in 2012.
Not if they don't go out. The next thing will be a crackdown on ballots themselves. That's a' comin'. I don't care where it is, Ds are going to be down about 3m "voters" at least in the next election, and 10m after that.
Excellent points. While affordability is likely to hit most US families with similar paychecks in a similar manner, geographic location may end up being more important than Party affiliation, regarding Immigration.
If only a few migrants arrived your area, the effect on housing, healthcare, schools and jobs was likely limited. Watching ICE toss anyone to the ground, even those obviously physically resisting arrest, will likely look like overkill.
Especially for a Dem ruling class often dwelling behind gates, with privately educated children. 3 migrant children, speaking 3 different languages, are unlikely to interrupt their 3rd graders reading lessons, or lessen teacher time. The local ER may now have a slightly longer line, but their Concierge Doctor's office remains uncrowded.
Texas, on the other hand, was hit with the full force of the wave for years, and is still attempting to deal with the fallout. CA spends nearly $8.5 billion annually, just on migrant healthcare alone, before massive education and other costs. That is with 54% of all US immigrants, dwelling both legally and illegally, also enrolled in federal welfare programs. If federal welfare actually ends for them, some state budgets will have little hope, but prayer.
Perhaps much the rest of the country is over Immigration as an issue, except to despise ICE. The midterms are still the better part of a year away. We shall see how the economy shakes out, if unexpectedly large tax refunds appease many, if Iran is Mullah free, and if memories of Biden's border fiasco fade.
Unfortunately, a lot of political analysis these days seems to revolve around, "How can my team win?" I'd rather see people asking, "How can my team improve standards of living, the economy, and etc. in this country?"
I know that politics has always had an element of selfishness. But either it's gone to extremes or there's a synergistic combination happening. On the left, woke ideology and TDS are driving people to accept ridiculous ideas not just as true, but as virtuous. So men are women, racism against unpopular groups is good, and there's no need to structure immigration policy: just let anyone in. Especially people who are in favored racial and ethnic groups. And we need to riot in favor of this.
On the right, the same thing is happening, though admittedly to a somewhat lesser degree. Examples include vaccines are toxic and more tax cuts for the wealthiest members of society. Never mind that we've had nearly a thousand cases of measles in the first seven weeks of the year (2300 in all of last year, which was a bad year), and that measles really can kill babies and children.
People who question these ideas, especially on the left and as regards vaccines, are cancelled and abused.
And one of the frontrunners for the Dem nomination bragged to black people that he's "like them" because he got a lousy SAT score and he can't really read. But he bragged to a white guy that he read the guy's long book in two hours because it was such a great book. And when a reporter asked to confirm the dyslexia diagnosis, Newsom's director of communications told her to F*** OFF. He's not thinking about how to help the country. He's thinking about himself ascending the golden escalator. Sound familiar?
Just once, can't we have a candidate who really wants to serve the nation?
Reps can be blamed for a lot of things. Am thinking the measles outbreak might be a stretch. Measles infections are surging all over the globe, and have been for the last handful of years, including during the Biden administration.
Reps are not causing the international infections. People, all over the world, now routinely travel internationally, and internationally relocate, en mass, as never before in history. Those that relocate bring their children with them.
Tens of millions of children and adults, mostly in the 3rd world, remain universally unvaccinated or have never been exposed to measles. People visit those countries, and then visit other nations, when they encounter other unvaccinated or previously unexposed residents. The unvaccinated also permanently relocate around the globe, every day. Vaccinations are rarely required. Also Americans too old to be vaccinated as children, but exposed, may not enjoy 100% lifelong immunity as previously assumed.
The US has always had vaccine skeptics. For a 1/2 century the wealthy and well educated residents of Marin County, CA, outside SF, were far less likely to vaccinate their kids for anything than the rest of the US. No one said a word, but they were overwhelmingly Dem voters.
I agree with you that antivaxxing is bipartisan lunacy. But the Dem voters here ignoring it isn't true ... we had a nasty measles outbreak here in 2014-2015. Back then, anyone could get a school vaccine exemption for "philosophical" reasons. There were schools in the Bay Area with vaccination rates as low as 50% (Waldorf schools in particular). A lot of people were furious (whooping cough had shut down an entire Waldorf school in 2008, so this wasn't a new problem). There were articles in the paper about kids with cancers who couldn't receive live-virus vaccines (eg MMR, chickenpox). These kids were at risk because of the selfishness and willful ignorance of some people. There was actually quite an uproar about it in 2014/15.
Our government here was much more responsible then, and in the wake of that outbreak, the state passed a vaccine mandate. It requires vaccines for school entry, public or private. No shots? You're welcome to homeschool your snowflake. The sole exemptions are for medical reasons and IEPs requiring that the student have a one-on-one aide (this one relates to the federal ADA).
Back then, Andrew Wakefield and Jenny McCarthy bore a lot of responsibility for MMR hysteria. Today, that lands in Kennedy's lap in this country. I don't see all Republicans getting in line with him over this, but a lot of MAHA moms on both sides of the aisle are putting their children and grandchildren at risk for nasty problems.
But the MAHA crowd scoffs at protecting from "childhood diseases" without understanding that they affected mostly children because kids were the only ones who hadn't been infected yet --- not because these diseases were minor little annoyances. Mumps nearly killed someone in my family in the 1960s when she was a little kid, a fact I was reminded of annually in the 70s when vaccine day was approaching.
It just sucks that people are willing to believe the lies and distortions about one of the most important discoveries in the history medicine.
As you guys know, I discount polls including the recent one showing Trump at 50%.
I thought Ds were starting to turn it around in PA when, for 2 straight reports, they made minimal gains there . . . but nope. Back to GOP gains yet again, suggesting internal pushes for registration. The idiotic "jungle primary" scheme to perpetually elect Ds in CA is backfiring now, with the top two in the governor's race according to "ahem" polls being Rs. After pruning MN of 13,000 illegals, Trump moved out, but the deportations continue at record pace. I know you don't like to hear it but yes, many of these people vote, and no, they won't be voting D any more. Let's say it's "only" 50% who vote, so with 3.5m gone in just 14 mo., the Ds have nationally lost another 1.7 million off their rolls, not even mentioning the continued D-R or D-I registration shifts in every state we can track. Loosely, this translates to another 2m net Rs (or 2m fewer Ds) than just 14 months ago.
Somehow, Rs have hung on since Nov. to win 4/7 special elections, though the one in TX got all the media.
And despite the Supes ruling, the economy is starting to really heat up again. I maintain my prediction that Rs hold the House by 2-5, add a NH seat in the Senate. And J.D. Vance is still on my scorecard at 320 EVs in 2028, but as I'm sure you've noticed there is a three-way battle for the D nomination among Newsome, Mamdani, and Harris. I don't know why Ds don't like Newsome, but apparently they don't, and 30% love the Amazing Zohran and wouldn't care what the constitution says about nominating him. I think this explains the recent Harris push---she is the only one capable of NOT being blown out (but would still lose).
I'm from California and I think I understand why so many don't like Newsom. He's fake. He has no deep beliefs. Any that he might have professed would be dropped in an instant if they didn't poll well.
Also from California. And, Yes. That's Newsom.
I would love it if this happens, but I think you're forecasting your hopes.
Agreed. I think 2026 will be a bloodbath and the economy will have to be strong for the Republicans to win in 2028. This is an anti-incumbent era.
But I also think that voter registrations and the realignment is real. Gen Z is far more conservative than the millennials. The Democrats are going to lose, but it will take fifteen years.
I have strong confidence in my ability to predict presidential elections, but weak confidence in my ability to predict midterms.
"And despite the Supes ruling, the economy is starting to really heat up again. I maintain my prediction that Rs hold the House by 2-5, add a NH seat in the Senate."
I hereby tag this statement as an acid test of Larry's fervent quantitative analyses. Let this November and the House margin be his day in the sun, or the day he is forever consigned to a lesser version of that 'fix the polls' crank in 2012.
They will still be voting. Minnesota will accept their absentee ballots.
Not if they don't go out. The next thing will be a crackdown on ballots themselves. That's a' comin'. I don't care where it is, Ds are going to be down about 3m "voters" at least in the next election, and 10m after that.
Excellent points. While affordability is likely to hit most US families with similar paychecks in a similar manner, geographic location may end up being more important than Party affiliation, regarding Immigration.
If only a few migrants arrived your area, the effect on housing, healthcare, schools and jobs was likely limited. Watching ICE toss anyone to the ground, even those obviously physically resisting arrest, will likely look like overkill.
Especially for a Dem ruling class often dwelling behind gates, with privately educated children. 3 migrant children, speaking 3 different languages, are unlikely to interrupt their 3rd graders reading lessons, or lessen teacher time. The local ER may now have a slightly longer line, but their Concierge Doctor's office remains uncrowded.
Texas, on the other hand, was hit with the full force of the wave for years, and is still attempting to deal with the fallout. CA spends nearly $8.5 billion annually, just on migrant healthcare alone, before massive education and other costs. That is with 54% of all US immigrants, dwelling both legally and illegally, also enrolled in federal welfare programs. If federal welfare actually ends for them, some state budgets will have little hope, but prayer.
Perhaps much the rest of the country is over Immigration as an issue, except to despise ICE. The midterms are still the better part of a year away. We shall see how the economy shakes out, if unexpectedly large tax refunds appease many, if Iran is Mullah free, and if memories of Biden's border fiasco fade.
Unfortunately, a lot of political analysis these days seems to revolve around, "How can my team win?" I'd rather see people asking, "How can my team improve standards of living, the economy, and etc. in this country?"
I know that politics has always had an element of selfishness. But either it's gone to extremes or there's a synergistic combination happening. On the left, woke ideology and TDS are driving people to accept ridiculous ideas not just as true, but as virtuous. So men are women, racism against unpopular groups is good, and there's no need to structure immigration policy: just let anyone in. Especially people who are in favored racial and ethnic groups. And we need to riot in favor of this.
On the right, the same thing is happening, though admittedly to a somewhat lesser degree. Examples include vaccines are toxic and more tax cuts for the wealthiest members of society. Never mind that we've had nearly a thousand cases of measles in the first seven weeks of the year (2300 in all of last year, which was a bad year), and that measles really can kill babies and children.
People who question these ideas, especially on the left and as regards vaccines, are cancelled and abused.
And one of the frontrunners for the Dem nomination bragged to black people that he's "like them" because he got a lousy SAT score and he can't really read. But he bragged to a white guy that he read the guy's long book in two hours because it was such a great book. And when a reporter asked to confirm the dyslexia diagnosis, Newsom's director of communications told her to F*** OFF. He's not thinking about how to help the country. He's thinking about himself ascending the golden escalator. Sound familiar?
Just once, can't we have a candidate who really wants to serve the nation?
Reps can be blamed for a lot of things. Am thinking the measles outbreak might be a stretch. Measles infections are surging all over the globe, and have been for the last handful of years, including during the Biden administration.
Reps are not causing the international infections. People, all over the world, now routinely travel internationally, and internationally relocate, en mass, as never before in history. Those that relocate bring their children with them.
Tens of millions of children and adults, mostly in the 3rd world, remain universally unvaccinated or have never been exposed to measles. People visit those countries, and then visit other nations, when they encounter other unvaccinated or previously unexposed residents. The unvaccinated also permanently relocate around the globe, every day. Vaccinations are rarely required. Also Americans too old to be vaccinated as children, but exposed, may not enjoy 100% lifelong immunity as previously assumed.
The US has always had vaccine skeptics. For a 1/2 century the wealthy and well educated residents of Marin County, CA, outside SF, were far less likely to vaccinate their kids for anything than the rest of the US. No one said a word, but they were overwhelmingly Dem voters.
I agree with you that antivaxxing is bipartisan lunacy. But the Dem voters here ignoring it isn't true ... we had a nasty measles outbreak here in 2014-2015. Back then, anyone could get a school vaccine exemption for "philosophical" reasons. There were schools in the Bay Area with vaccination rates as low as 50% (Waldorf schools in particular). A lot of people were furious (whooping cough had shut down an entire Waldorf school in 2008, so this wasn't a new problem). There were articles in the paper about kids with cancers who couldn't receive live-virus vaccines (eg MMR, chickenpox). These kids were at risk because of the selfishness and willful ignorance of some people. There was actually quite an uproar about it in 2014/15.
Our government here was much more responsible then, and in the wake of that outbreak, the state passed a vaccine mandate. It requires vaccines for school entry, public or private. No shots? You're welcome to homeschool your snowflake. The sole exemptions are for medical reasons and IEPs requiring that the student have a one-on-one aide (this one relates to the federal ADA).
Back then, Andrew Wakefield and Jenny McCarthy bore a lot of responsibility for MMR hysteria. Today, that lands in Kennedy's lap in this country. I don't see all Republicans getting in line with him over this, but a lot of MAHA moms on both sides of the aisle are putting their children and grandchildren at risk for nasty problems.
But the MAHA crowd scoffs at protecting from "childhood diseases" without understanding that they affected mostly children because kids were the only ones who hadn't been infected yet --- not because these diseases were minor little annoyances. Mumps nearly killed someone in my family in the 1960s when she was a little kid, a fact I was reminded of annually in the 70s when vaccine day was approaching.
It just sucks that people are willing to believe the lies and distortions about one of the most important discoveries in the history medicine.