Democrats have good reason to look forward to this year’s midterms. History suggests they are a near lock to retake the House despite the redistricting wars, and the 2025 results were overwhelmingly positive for them.
There are nonetheless some important indicators that do not tell this robustly positive story. Understanding the mixed signals the electorate is sending will be key if Democrats are to fulfill their dreams and usher in a blue wave.
The congressional generic ballot is the first warning sign. Despite President Trump’s low job approval numbers, Democrats are currently only ahead by about 4 points. They were ahead by roughly 7 points at this stage of the 2018 midterm cycle. (Nate Silver's model shows a slightly larger 5.3 point lead for Democrats, but also shows Democrats running well behind where his generic ballot average had them in 2018.)
This makes sense when one considers that Trump’s job approval rating was nearly three points lower back then than it is today. Despite all of Trump’s missteps and bad news, he remains more popular today than eight years ago, and this has a direct impact on the race for Congress.
One also has to factor in how static congressional preferences are in most election years. It seems strange to say that given how many hundreds of millions of dollars are soon to be unleashed in campaign spending, but it’s true.
The final national congressional vote has not differed by more than 1.6 points from the Real Clear Politics average on January 21 of an election year since 2014. It’s possible that could change this year—the past is not always prologue—but the nation’s extreme and increasing polarization suggests that what Democrats see now is roughly what they will get in November.
That said, winning the national congressional vote by 4 points would represent roughly a 7-point improvement on the margin from 2024. That would still give them a 10-25 seat gain in the House and could even make Senate control possible if every race broke their way. But that’s a far cry from the massive gains in past Democratic landslides such as 2008 and 2018.
Partisan identification is another warning sign. True, Democrats have been picking up ground here, too. They now lead by five points in Gallup’s most recent polling, a dramatic improvement from their deficits between 2022 and 2024. But that is all from independents who lean Democratic; core Democratic partisanship actually dropped one point between 2024 and 2025.
One must also note that Gallup polls all adults, which includes non-citizens. Trump and Republicans have fared much worse on polls of all adults than those of registered voters throughout the latter half of 2025 (likely due to the ICE raids). The quarterly Wall Street Journal poll only finds a slight improvement from 2024, moving from an R+2 lean in October 2024 to a D+1 tilt today.
Then we have the partisan registration trends. Decision Desk HQ’s data expert, Michael Pruser, keeps track of these, and he finds that Republicans are still out-registering Democrats in most states that register voters by party. That’s not what one would expect to see if Democrats were rising in popularity.
It’s not that Republicans are doing great in most states. The real winners this year have been independents, as the share of voters choosing neither major party has risen substantially. Those independents seem to be leaning toward Democrats right now and could well stay there. But that’s different from a partisan revival.
Voters’ opinions of the two parties bear these observations out. Republicans remain slightly more popular than Democrats in Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages despite a decline in the GOP throughout the year. Democratic favorability has barely budged despite the other positive trends.
Put it all together, and one must conclude that the election is not going to be a cakewalk. Candidates matter less than they used to, but bad Democratic candidates can still cost the party in key races. Trump could improve his standing as the year progresses, and every point his job approval rises reduces the chance Democrats make significant gains, especially in the Senate.
In short, the game is still on with everything left to play for. Let the races begin!
The largest, longterm, Dem problem is that while Trump has a 36 month expiration date, lousy Dem policy does not.
Moreover, at its' most base, Dem Immigration policy is based on states blatantly and actively ignoring long standing Federal Law.
Should a Dem President emerge victorious in 2028, what do Dems suppose Texas and FL will do when EVs are once again mandated, DEI is resurrected at both the state and federal level, and restrictions reappear on fossil fuel energy production?
Red States will look at DC and with a wink and a nod, promise to follow federal law just as judiciously as Blue States followed federal Immigration law, the last 4 years.
Dems are playing with fire. Declaring federal law optional, is how Republics end.
"...and the 2025 results were overwhelmingly positive for them."
I grow rather tired of people trying to make 2025 out as the harbinger of an unstoppable blue wave when two Democrats won governorship of two blue states.