The 2028 election may seem light-years away politically, but the contours of the race are already foreseeable. The fight to define the post-Trump era has the makings for two potentially extreme and polarizing nominees to emerge—Vice President JD Vance for the Republicans and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the Democrats.
Why these two? Well, Vance is already the anointed one for Trump and the most fervent ideologue and public communicator for that brand of America First, even though Trump does like to be coy and encourage talk of Secretary of State Marco Rubio perhaps getting his golden endorsement. Vance is a highly capable and smart politician, if not as immediately popular with independents and others who backed his boss one or two times. The wild card for Vance, of course, is how good or bad the conclusion of the Trump era ends up being in the minds of American voters in terms of the economy, various scandals or wars, and people’s basic weariness with the president after four years.
Among Democrats, AOC is clearly the beloved leader of the next generation left. If New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani could be president, he would easily displace her and probably be more successful. But he can’t be president constitutionally, so he’s out. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are well-respected leftist elders but clearly are too old and set in their ways to ignite another round of voter fervor. And a left-populist newcomer like Ro Khanna has many skills and interesting policy frameworks, but he does not currently command anywhere near the star power and potential fundraising and organizational support as AOC. Now, AOC doesn’t currently seem ready for prime time and might flame out. It’s also not yet clear that she wants to run for president and might stand down or make a run for the U.S. Senate in New York. But, if AOC does run, she will have a 2016 Trump-like advantage in the primaries as the only viable candidate of the “anti-establishment” socialist left and in terms of endless free media coverage.
However, unlike the Republican succession process, which will most likely be uncompetitive and de facto run out of the White House by Trump, centrist Democrats are not going to give over their party to AOC and the left without a serious fight. For example, the ideologically moderate Democratic think tank Third Way, among others, is already ramping up to create the infrastructure, ideas, and political backing for a “combative centrist” to lead the party and take on AOC. This is a wise project with a potentially fatal strategic flaw. If leftist Democrats are 100 percent behind AOC (with no serious progressive competition) and there are several moderate/centrist, establishment, or “newbie” options who stay in the contest for multiple months (pick among Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear, Wes Moore, Rahm Emanuel, Jon Ossoff, or Ruben Gallego), the left will likely win a grinding delegate battle with a firm plurality of the vote and momentum. Although there are many Democratic voters who are pragmatic and not on the ideological left, the math won’t work unless the field is eventually cleared for one of the non-AOC candidates to hoover up that moderate “electability-focused” support, as seen in 2020 with Joe Biden.
The sooner that winnowing process begins and concludes, the more likely it is the center-left can put up a fighting chance against AOC and the far left. The longer it drags on, the worse it will get for them with no guarantee of a semi-coordinated dropout of uncompetitive candidates in time to rally behind the strongest alternative, as occurred in the 2020 primary season in and around Super Tuesday.
If the prospect of this partisan head-to-head in 2028 makes you wince, you’re probably not alone. Assuming the two parties do move in this direction, nominating AOC and Vance, it’s not a stretch to imagine a significant and well-funded third-party effort emerging to give voters an alternative to either democratic socialism or another four years of MAGA culture wars and erratic economic and foreign policies.
The probability that someone or some entity will try to foment a third-party run in this AOC-Vance scenario doesn’t guarantee any success, however. Third parties are notoriously ineffective, ego-driven efforts that fail to capture the imagination of center-left and center-right voters and many non-ideological independents. RFK Jr.’s effort went nowhere in 2024 as he essentially used the threat of an independent bid to upset Democrats and secure a Trump cabinet position. Likewise, the independent group No Labels flirted with supporting a bipartisan moderate ticket only to fall victim to partisan sniping and a lack of visionary personalities to lead the ticket and attract voters.
If a charismatic ex-partisan or non-partisan wants to successfully spoil the party for Democrats or Republicans in 2028, they will first need to have a simple and clear rationale for running, good communications abilities, and loads of cash. You could imagine the Libertarian Party getting its act together to defend “freedom” from both leftist and far-right economic and social policy incursions. But given its track record, many things would need to change inside that party for this path to work. If a serious third-party effort is to materialize in 2028, it will likely require a wealthy and dedicated individual from the private sector, not the political class, to lead the initiative and make it clear that they are starting relatively soon, not late in the process.
A lot of this sounds like parlor games right now, which is understandable. But anyone who has followed politics and voter trends closely for the past decade knows that a potential AOC-Vance battle in 2028 is not going to please millions of independent, moderate, and patriotic but not traditionally partisan Americans. They will resent the two choices forced on them and will be open to alternatives should they emerge. Republicans and Democrats yelling at these voters to get in partisan line won’t work. We may be in for one wild and quirky presidential election season in due time.
If the political environment in November, 2028 is exactly like it is right now then Vance would beat AOC in a two party race. America is not yet ready for full-blown socialism. But much will occur between now and November, 2028 to change the political environment; if things get bad enough even AOC could win.
A third party candidate (TPC) - who is a genuine moderate - might be a strong candidate in 2028. That genuine moderate would have to come from the Democratic party, someone who can't stomach a hard Left turn like AOC would be. The key voting bloc would be Independents, whom a recent opinion survey found to be 45% of voters, with 27% each for Democrats and Republicans. To win in the electoral college, that TPC would have to win 70%-80% of those Independents, then peel off enough votes from moderates in both major parties to win 270+ electoral votes. A very tall order, not likely. And who is the moderate Democrat with the stature to mount a competitive campaign?
John, probably. I have said for a year that we are seeing the end, the extermination, of the Democrat Party. People today with no historical perspective don't realize this happened all the time in history: Federalists, Liberty, Know-Nothing, Whig, Populist, Progressive, and most recently, Reform. Most people don't think it can happen because they haven't witnessed it happen, but the Ds are almost the inverse Whigs, who had a solid-down ticket, but couldn't stand up for the main issue of the day, slavery. Modern Ds have all sorts of issues, but they are all on the wrong side of all the main issues of the day, trans infiltration of schools, open borders, pro-Uke but anti-Israel, and most of all, anti-male. I've described these five civil wars, and I don't think Ds have moved the ball one inch in the right direction of any.
Therefore, in fact, I do believe that after a significant wipeout by Vance of whomever is nominated (I stand by 320-340 EVs at this time, and 2.5% of the pop vote---but could be much larger if, as I suspect, Ds with throw caution to the wind and nominate AOC or Mamdani---the Ds will have a final fracture in 2029, with a rump of the most radical becoming a new Socialist Party. I have no idea what happens to the other, slightly larger, D majority.